Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has set a new record since the exchange rate reform in 2005 for three consecutive days, and the market generally predicts that the RMB exchange rate will enter a new appreciation channel. This speculation is not unreasonable. Because at the just-concluded G20 financial conference in Paris, the China government has made a "positive" commitment to alleviate the international economic imbalance by further appreciating the RMB exchange rate. However, this "commitment" is by no means a passive response to international pressure. Against the background of persistently high domestic inflation and CPI reaching a new high of 4.9 last month, this round of RMB exchange rate appreciation is more of a key link in a series of strategic measures taken by the China government to actively fight inflation.
In the past 10 years, the most important and longest-lasting argument about China's economic policy was RMB exchange rate policy, whether in academia, policy circles or the press. In today's floating exchange rate era, the fluctuation of a country's currency exchange rate is a normal policy adjustment, and the currency value fluctuates with the change of market environment, which is conducive to the balance of internal and external payments and the adjustment of domestic economic structure. In China, however, the RMB exchange rate has become extremely complicated and a very thorny political issue due to the intervention of the United States.
Since 2003, some U.S. congressmen have urged the U.S. government to put pressure on the RMB in various ways to demand its appreciation. At the same time, the international community has gradually formed a public opinion atmosphere that RMB is significantly undervalued. This makes the economic issue of exchange rate linked with diplomatic issues. The policy of RMB appreciation can easily be interpreted by some domestic public opinion as a compromise to American diplomatic pressure. In addition, some opponents associate this issue with the extremely sensitive topic of domestic employment, which is related to social stability, so that the opponents of RMB appreciation have a moral advantage for a long time in this debate, and the special interests behind this faction are often ignored. On the contrary, it is a pity that supporters often fall into the "dilemma" of "political inaccuracy", and the theoretical logic behind it has basically not been paid attention to in this melee.
It is worth noting that in this round of appreciation after the Spring Festival, the voice of opposition is much weaker than before. 20 10 the biggest threat that China people feel is inflation. In order to cope with the financial crisis, China government has invested a lot of money in the market through various financial and monetary means. In addition, China's foreign trade surplus continues to grow. Under the condition of foreign exchange control, this part of foreign trade surplus can only be converted into accumulated foreign exchange reserves, while the central bank can only put the same amount of RMB into the domestic market. If the renminbi does not appreciate, the central bank can only put more money in the domestic market, and inflation will be more serious. In other words, the failure to appreciate the RMB is at the expense of domestic inflation.
Since June last year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has only increased by 3.5%. However, according to the calculation of relevant experts, the real exchange rate has increased by 6%. For example, in the past, Yuan Yuan could buy one loaf of bread, but now it has risen to 7, and Yuan Yuan can only buy one loaf. At the nominal exchange rate of 6: 1, it used to be 1 USD to buy a loaf of bread in China, but now it is 1 USD. This means that although the nominal exchange rate between China and the United States has not changed, the dollar price of bread in China is still rising. In this case, ordinary people suffer the most because their purchasing power has decreased. The "shortage of migrant workers" staged at the beginning of the year made the employment problem related to RMB exchange rate not as serious as people thought, and using employment to oppose RMB appreciation was just an excuse; On the contrary, the phenomenon of "difficult employment for college students" is more worthy of attention, but it is obviously not directly related to the RMB exchange rate.
For a long time, the benefits of RMB appreciation have rarely been fully explained, such as being conducive to the adjustment of domestic economic structure, forcing the upgrading of industrial structure, saving domestic resources, reducing foreign exchange reserves, internationalizing RMB, alleviating the pressure of international public opinion, and improving the welfare of ordinary residents. But at present, the biggest strategic significance of RMB appreciation lies in overcoming inflation. On the one hand, it will reduce the growth rate of China's exports and stabilize the price of domestic scarce factors; On the other hand, under the background of rising prices of international commodities such as energy and food, the appreciation of RMB means that more foreign goods can be bought with less RMB, thus curbing the pressure of rising domestic prices. At the same time, it also enables the central bank to ease the pressure of "buying" the foreign trade surplus by issuing additional RMB.
China is on the right path to use RMB appreciation to fight inflation.