The world economic growth rate was 3.9% in 2006 and 3.7% in 2007. The report predicts that the world economic growth rate will be 3.4% in 2008, which will continue to decline.
The report points out that the uncertainty of the world economy in 2008 will mainly come from the American economy. In the third quarter of 2007, the downward trend of American housing market became more serious. With the credit crisis caused by subprime mortgage, the economic prospect is not optimistic.
The report pointed out that American house prices rose by nearly 90% in the ten years up to 2006, so there is room for a sharp decline; In addition, the debt ratio of American households has risen rapidly in recent years. If house prices fall by 15%, it may affect consumer demand and reduce the growth rate of the US economy by two percentage points, which means that the US economy will stagnate.
Once the American economy falls into recession, the export growth of China, Europe and Japan will be affected, thus reducing the demand of these economies for exports from developing countries, which will have a serious impact on the world economy.
The report suggests that countries coordinate policy actions to improve the imbalance of international trade and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The report pointed out that the exchange rate is only one of the means to adjust the imbalance of international trade. If we rely solely on exchange rate adjustment, it may lead to further depreciation of the US dollar, and the international community will lose confidence in the US dollar. Therefore, it is safer and more effective to stimulate the demand of China, Japan and other countries with trade surplus and major oil exporting countries to offset the effect of tight demand in the United States.
The financial tsunami destroyed the myth of Wall Street, and the world economy is facing a historical turning point.
This is the worst time and the best time.
In this worst era, we have encountered the most violent financial tsunami in the past century. The "Wall Street Myth" vanished with the transformation of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and the world economy fell into the worst recession since World War II. With the continuous infiltration of financial turmoil into the real economy, the world economy has reached a "turning point" in history.
In this best era, with the rapid development of economic globalization, we have the opportunity to witness the bold measures taken by seven central banks in the world, including China, to cut interest rates, and also contributed to the success of the G20 financial summit, which is known as the "second Bretton Woods", and let the world appreciate the determination of major countries to use trillions of dollars to stimulate the economy, and China's 4 trillion investment plan is particularly commendable.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers
On June 24th, 2008, it was sunny in Manhattan, new york. On the huge electronic screen on the outer wall of the building at 745 Seventh Avenue, the subtitles of "Lehman Brothers" are constantly changing in various bright colors and scrolling repeatedly.
165438+1October 19, 2008, cloudy and windy, Manhattan, new york. The huge electronic screen on the outer wall of the building at 745 Seventh Avenue still attracts people's attention, but the rolling subtitles have been replaced by Barclays Capital, and the primary colors have become only blue and white.
/kloc-in September of 0/5, with the subprime mortgage crisis entering the second "high-risk period", Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, unexpectedly declared bankruptcy. Lehman's core business and fixed assets in the United States were acquired by Barclays Capital of the United Kingdom for a mere $10.50 billion, which led to the above dramatic scene. Lehman's business outside the United States is under the income of Nomura in Japan.
Lehman is not the first bankruptcy triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis. In March this year, in the first "high-risk period" of the subprime mortgage crisis, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, had to commit itself to JPMorgan Chase because of the liquidity crisis, and the Federal Reserve provided financing for the transaction. In July, the financial market situation deteriorated again, and the crisis escalated rapidly after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two major mortgage financing institutions in the United States, got into trouble. Two months later, in order to prevent the bankruptcy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from causing immeasurable damage to the financial system of the United States and the world, the US government announced that it would take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
However, in the eyes of many people, letting Lehman go bankrupt was the biggest failure of Bush and Paulson. Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse Asia, calculated an account: If the government had bailed out Lehman, the cost should not have exceeded $6 billion, but Paulson didn't decide to do so at that time, which made the global cost of finally rescuing the financial system exceed 1.3 trillion (it seems that this cost is still increasing). "Lehman's bankruptcy caused everyone's confidence in the financial system to collapse overnight, and the flow of funds between banks stagnated, eventually forcing the government to fully rescue the financial industry."
The origin of subprime mortgage crisis
Merrill Lynch, the third largest investment bank in the United States, was in trouble at the same time as Lehman, but the latter was sold at a more decent price, and Bank of America took over. Subsequently, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the two largest investment banks in the United States, announced that they would become bank holding companies.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the "only surviving" of the five major banks, were forced to transform, which officially declared the end of the myth of Wall Street investment banks that began in the 1930s. This is not only reflected in the fact that these institutions can no longer engage in high-risk and high-yield businesses as they used to, but also directly lead to the unemployment of hundreds of thousands of Wall Street elites. The "year-end red envelopes" that used to cost tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of yuan may also become history.
Thain, who thinks he helped Merrill Lynch tide over the difficulties, has reluctantly announced that he will give up the expected year-end bonus of $654.38 million+$1 million. Mack of Morgan Stanley also announced that he would not receive a dividend this year. Even Goldman Sachs, its CEO Blankfein and six other executives are considered to have suffered the least in the current crisis, and they are told that there will be no year-end bonus this year. The industry estimates that compared with last year, the year-end bonus of Bank of America may shrink by 50%-70% this year. After Obama, who advocates "strong financial supervision", takes office, it may be more difficult for Wall Street to return to the era of high salary.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television this month, former Bear Stearns CEO Greenberg lamented that his Wall Street model of "participating in development" was gone forever. The origin of this tragedy is actually a group of so-called "subprime home buyers" in the United States.
The so-called subprime mortgage refers to a special mortgage loan designed by American mortgage institutions for people with low income and poor credit records. Compared with high-quality loans with lower risk, such loans have greater repayment and default risks, so they are called "subprime loans". From 200 1 to 2005, the American housing market maintained a five-year prosperity, and some banks and other lending institutions lowered their loan standards one after another, making a large number of people with low incomes and poor credit records join the tide of buying houses with loans. However, with the rise of American interest rates, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the summer of 2007. Since then, the crisis has continued to develop, leading to a large number of financial institutions in the United States and Europe in trouble or even bankruptcy, which eventually escalated into a full-scale financial crisis in September 2008 and spread to other parts of the world.
The real economy is deeply affected.
The financial crisis has also put the world economy at a turning point in history. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth rate this year and next is expected to be only 3.7% and 2.2%, which is the worst performance since 2002. The forecasts of the World Bank and other institutions are even more pessimistic.
In this financial turmoil, the major financial institutions in the United States and Europe have been severely impacted, and the major financial markets in the world have continued to be turbulent and the credit crunch has been severe. The crisis spread from the financial industry to other industries, from the virtual economy to the real economy, which led to the recession of the three major economies of the United States, Europe and Japan and the serious slowdown of the world economy.
Last week, the World Bank announced that it would cut world economic growth for the second time in a month. It predicts that the global economic growth will obviously slow down this year and next, and world trade will also decline for the first time since 1982. It is estimated that the global GDP growth rate will be 2.5% this year, and will further fall back to 0.9% next year. The bank had expected 1%.
A report released by the United Nations earlier this month also predicted that the global economic growth rate may not exceed 1% next year. The IMF predicts that the developed economies will decline by 0.3% next year, and the economic growth rate of developing and emerging economies will obviously slow down to about 5. 1%.
As early as 2007, when the American subprime mortgage crisis began to appear, some American subprime mortgage institutions went bankrupt one after another. With the intensification of the crisis, investment banks, insurance companies and pension funds have suffered huge losses due to holding a large number of subprime mortgage-backed securities. According to the statistics of Goldman Sachs, the losses suffered by global financial institutions in the US subprime mortgage crisis will be as high as 1.4 trillion US dollars, and 800 billion US dollars have been exposed so far this year.
As financial institutions in the United States and Europe suffered heavy losses in the subprime mortgage crisis, investors lacked confidence in the world economic prospects, and major stock markets in the United States, Europe and Japan continued to fluctuate and fell sharply. From the beginning of this year to the beginning of 65438+February, the three major stock indexes in new york, London, Paris and Frankfurt all fell by more than 34%, and the major stock indexes in Tokyo fell by more than 46%. The stock market crash not only seriously affected investors' confidence, but also adversely affected corporate financing.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, an authoritative research institution in the United States, announced this month that the American economy has been in recession since June 65438+February last year. As a result, the American economy has been in recession for a year. In the second and third quarters of this year, the economies of the euro zone and Japan both fell into recession. With the economic downturn in developed economies, developing economies have also been affected.
According to Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, the world has entered a "post-bubble era", and the whole world will be in recession in 2009, at least until 20 10. "In the era of globalization, we are intoxicated with the prosperity brought by transnational exchanges. However, with the globalization of prosperity going to extremes and hatching a deadly asset bubble, the result will surely be the sequela brought by the bursting of the bubble. "
The US economy is expected to take the lead in rebounding.
Many economists believe that the world economy will remain extremely difficult and even worsen in the next six months. However, as more monetary and fiscal stimulus measures begin to play a role, major economies are expected to recover in the second half of next year or around the end of the year, with the US economy expected to rebound first.
People have realized that the economy will stabilize by the end of next year.
Markey, co-chief economist of Barclays Capital, believes that it has entered or is entering a global recession. He said that the US economy will shrink for several quarters, and it is expected that the US economy will shrink sharply in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. By the second quarter of next year, the economy may show moderate growth. By the second half of the year, the growth may be more obvious.
Specifically, Barclays Capital expects the US economy to shrink by 2.5% in the fourth quarter, negative growth by 1.5% in the first quarter of next year, and growth by 1% in the second quarter, and may increase by 3% in the second half of next year.
Markey said that if the US economy recovers in the second half of next year, it will bring great help to other economies, because exports to the US will increase.
Wise, chief economist of Standard & Poor's, believes that this time the world is more like experiencing a synchronous recession, which was rare in the past. However, Wise also said that, on the whole, he believes that by the end of next year, the economic situation will begin to improve.
Wise said that in the past, it was more common for a country to fall into recession first, and other countries were implicated in economic recession. This time, although the financial crisis first broke out in the United States, the European economy felt the impact before the United States. The United States is in recession, and Japan's economic decline is basically synchronized with that of the United States, while the recession in Europe may be milder than that in the United States, but it may last longer.
JPMorgan Chase-based American economist feroli, a former Fed economist, said that their most optimistic expectation is that the US economy will recover moderately before the second half of next year. Other countries may have similar situations. JPMorgan Chase predicted that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.5% in the second half of next year, with a possible negative growth of 1% in the first half and 4% in the fourth quarter of this year.
Blanchard, chief economist of IMF, said that the global economic downturn may last until the end of 2009, when it may bottom out. This is mainly because many factors that triggered the current crisis may turn around at that time. For example, in the United States, the property market is expected to bottom out in the middle of next year; The deleveraging process may last for some time, but it may also stop at the end of 2009. In addition, the willingness of financial institutions to lend is expected to gradually recover, and the stimulus of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to help the economy recover later next year.
The US economy may rebound first.
Chen Zhiwu, a tenured professor of finance at Yale University's School of Management, said that by the second half of next year, the US economy may recover faster than that in Western Europe, Latin America and even Asian countries. On the contrary, underdeveloped countries may need longer time and greater difficulties to recover after this blow.
Chen Zhiwu said that many people think that the American economy may collapse completely after this crisis, but he thinks this conclusion is somewhat exaggerated and premature. He said that the ability of self-adjustment and recovery of the US economy will exceed many people's expectations within two years.
The financial crisis originated in the United States and then affected the economies of all countries in the world. Therefore, in this case, according to the general understanding, this means that the American economy will be more seriously frustrated and dragged down for a longer time than other countries. However, Chen Zhiwu also pointed out that from now on, the American economy has developed for two centuries, especially its financial market. Despite this crisis, the structure of the whole financial system still exists. So, sometime next year, once you see that the financial and economic crisis has come to an end, the speed of American economic recovery will exceed people's imagination.
Wise of Standard & Poor's said that the United States has fallen into recession and may continue until the middle of next year. The recession in the United States did not seriously exceed the previous ones, but lasted longer than usual. Among other industrialized countries, the situation in Japan will be very similar to that in the United States. The recession in Europe may be milder, but it will last longer, possibly until the end of next year.
Another key point is the attraction of the new president. Chen Zhiwu believes that Obama's appointment may greatly enhance American society's confidence in the future. Obama may be able to do what Roosevelt did. 1933 after president Roosevelt took office, the confidence and cohesion of American society were suddenly summoned, which made American families and enterprises, large and small, willing to accept new challenges with the new president and make their own contributions to helping the American economy get out of the Great Depression as soon as possible.
Chen Zhiwu said that after taking office on June 20, 65438, Obama may imitate some Roosevelt's practices in many aspects, reform the institutional framework of financial and securities markets, and introduce many measures to stimulate economic growth to stimulate consumption. At the same time, he will gain the support of wider social groups in the international community, which will greatly help the recovery of the American economy in the second half of next year.
Stock market: the shock may last for several months.
A number of international authoritative economists said that the darkest period of the financial crisis may have passed. However, financial markets, especially the stock market, may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.
The financial crisis may have bottomed out.
Most economists believe that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. However, they also warned that it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic at present until the situation is completely clear.
Feroli, a JPMorgan Chase economist who has worked in the Federal Reserve for many years, believes that the risk of the collapse of large institutions like Lehman Brothers has been greatly reduced due to the important measures taken by countries to stabilize the market and stimulate the economy in the past. From this perspective, the worst of the financial crisis has passed.
Markey, co-chief economist of Barclays Capital, said that he was personally unwilling to make a judgment similar to that we have passed the worst period. "A series of measures introduced by the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance do seem to have had some positive effects in the market, and we expect this positive impact to continue."
Chen Zhiwu, a tenured professor of finance at Yale University School of Management, said that the financial crisis has come to an end in a sense. Of course, this bottom is definitely not V-shaped, but U-shaped. But the impact on the real economy has just begun.
Markey said that at this stage, there is still a risk that the crisis will continue to deteriorate, so he believes that we should not be too confident and optimistic now, and we must be alert to more negative developments that may occur in the financial system.
Wise, chief economist of Standard & Poor's, said that for financial markets, the worst period may have passed, but the resulting economic impact has just begun. He said that there are signs that the credit situation has improved, but there are still many uncertainties. Generally speaking, he believes that the darkest period of the credit market has passed, but it will not improve overnight.
"In my opinion, it may take several years to fully return to normal." Wise said. Taking the Asian financial crisis of 1997 as an example, he said that although it was only a regional crisis at that time, it would take several years for the banking system to return to normal.
The stock market will be dominated by shocks in the coming months.
Regarding the future trend of the financial market, feroli believes that the stock market will continue to digest negative economic news, and economic weakness will curb any rise in the stock market. The market will continue to fluctuate. As far as US stocks are concerned, the stock market may hit a new low. "Although we are very close to the bottom, there is still the possibility of further decline." Wise of Standard & Poor's said that the stock market may be close to the bottom. The stock market is usually stable for 3-6 months before the economy. If the economy can recover in the middle of next year, the stock market is expected to stabilize around the end of this year.
Chen Zhiwu predicted that in the next six months, the Dow may fluctuate between 7000 points and 1 1000 points, and then the stock market may rebound as investors improve the US economic outlook. Chen Zhiwu said that in terms of investment value, there are great long-term investment opportunities in developed stock markets such as the United States and Europe, and even in the financial industry. Although financial stocks have fallen miserably today, in the long run, the prospects of the financial industry are still relatively optimistic, and the long-term investment value is still very high.
Regarding the A-share market, Chen Zhiwu said, "There will be a lot of clouds in the next few months, because corporate profits and economic indicators in China will only get worse in the next six or nine months, not better." But maybe after the first half of next year, China stock market may have a new round of rise. Of course, the problem of "non-size" has yet to be solved. He believes that it is unlikely that A shares will hit a new low in the next six months, but the upside is limited, and it will probably fluctuate around 2000 points for some time.
Markey of Barclays Capital said that in the past, the stock market has also fallen sharply due to the cooling of corporate profits and expectations of world economic growth. But usually, the stock market will stabilize before the economy. From the historical experience, the stock market has started to stabilize for some time before the obvious economic recovery.
The strength of the dollar is overdone.
For the US dollar, which was in the limelight some time ago, experts said that the strength of the US dollar highlights that global investors still have confidence in the economic strength of the United States, but the current rise may be overdone.
JPMorgan Chase's feroli believes that there are two main reasons for the dollar's recent strength: on the one hand, it is a retaliatory rebound against the dollar's previous weakness. Because this summer, the market is too bearish on the dollar; On the other hand, everyone was worried about the recession in the United States before, but I didn't expect Europe and other economies to fall into a relative position. Therefore, the dollar has become a hot commodity in comparison. In the short term, he thinks the dollar may adjust in the coming months.
Wise of Standard & Poor's said that the dollar only rebounded from the excessive weakness in the previous two years, but it is a bit too strong now. In the past few years, the trend of the dollar against the euro and other currencies has more reflected the relative trend of interest rates. In 2006, the interest rate in Europe was lower than that in the United States, so the funds flowed to the United States, pushing the dollar up and the euro down; However, as the United States cut interest rates and Europe raised interest rates, the euro began to continue to rise against the US dollar.
But in the past few months, as Europe fell into recession, the euro was sold off. Of course, the strength of the dollar is also affected by the yen carry trade. As a large number of arbitrage transactions choose to close their positions when the risk rises, the euro is suppressed, the yen is relatively strong, and the dollar is also affected.
"At present, I don't think that the exchange rate of the US dollar deviates too much from the long-term equilibrium level, but I predict that after a period of time, as the situation returns to stability and the willingness to avoid risks declines, the euro may return to the vicinity of 1.40." Wise said.
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? Flowers bloom in the morning, which is Lu Xun's memory after being oppressed by the government, squeezed out by liter