A few days ago, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China announced that the fifth China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) will be held in Beijing from February 4th to 5th, 65438. At the same time, US President-elect Barack Obama officially announced the candidates for his economic team. People are generally concerned: what will the two sides talk about in this round of dialogue under the new situation and background?
Half a year ago, when China and the United States held the fourth strategic economic dialogue in Washington, the US presidential election was still in full swing, and Obama had just defeated Hillary Clinton in the party primary election. Although the subprime mortgage crisis chilled Wall Street, the bad news seems to have disappeared for some time since the collapse of Bell Si Tong. China's domestic economy is still in a peaceful state under the double stimulus of disaster relief and Olympic Games, and the decision-making authorities are still taking "double prevention", that is, preventing structural inflation from turning into full-scale inflation and preventing the economy from turning from rapid to full-scale overheating. At that time, the oil price of $0/50 per barrel was searing the world's major oil consumers, including the United States and China, and people were wondering how long it would be before the oil price of $200.
Six months later, great changes have taken place in both the domestic economic situation of China and the United States and the global economic situation, which is enough to make people wonder and question: did this happen in the same year?
In the United States, with the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the government's capital injection into AIG and Citibank, the three major automobile companies are on the verge of bankruptcy recently. In the case of falling house prices and stock prices, the rescue plan has also risen from the initial $250 billion to $700 billion, and then to the recently refreshed $850 billion. The huge iceberg of the financial crisis surfaced step by step. From the panic of the spread of virtual economy to the real economy. With the decline of consumption data and the increase of unemployment, the recession of American economy has changed from the initial rhetoric debate to a real reality.
Just as the Wall Street financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis escalated from a storm to a tsunami, the United States ushered in a new owner in Washington: the Democratic Party not only further expanded its victory and deepened its control over Capitol Hill, but Obama also defeated his opponent to enter the White House with absolute advantage. Behind the change of flag is not only the change of American political trend and ideological map, but also the anxiety and hope of the American people.
In China, although the direct impact of the financial tsunami on its capital market is relatively small, because its system is relatively independent and the pace of opening up is steady, the sharp contraction of overseas markets has dealt a serious blow to the coastal export-oriented economic areas. In addition, the long-term high-speed growth economy is also facing adjustment at this time, and the slowdown in GDP growth has caused deep anxiety among policy makers. In addition, both the stock market and the housing market are in a downturn, and a series of regulatory policies and investment plans to stimulate the economy are emerging one after another.
With the deepening impact of the financial crisis on the global economy, there are three major voices in the international community: First, developed capitalist countries including the G-8 should join hands with emerging economies including China, India and Brazil, and cooperate closely on a global scale more consciously to jointly cope with the crisis; Second, it is required to immediately reform the existing financial system and effectively strengthen the supervision of financial speculation and innovation; Third, China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies are required to assume greater responsibilities and play a greater role in coping with the crisis.
With the profound changes in their respective domestic and global economic situations, the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, which started from June 5 to 38+February, 2006, will be held every six months, and their respective dialogue needs and negotiation priorities will undergo major changes.
With the financial tsunami, China has replaced Japan as the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, and more than 8% of China's foreign exchange reserves have become various financial products of the United States. China is no longer immune to the cold snap on Wall Street, and even feels the same way. This crisis not only damaged some business investments in China, but also caused unprecedented difficulties for coastal export enterprises. At the same time, if the United States wants to get out of the crisis and predicament, it cannot do without China's cooperation, support and even help. The United States not only needs China to continue to hold or even buy American bonds, but also needs China's economy to maintain a moderately high growth trend, because China and the United States have long been two powerful engines of the global economy.
Therefore, after this crisis, China and the United States have more deeply realized the economic interdependence of the two great powers. How to further deal with this interdependence from a strategic perspective is the core strategic topic of the new round of dialogue, which is why the theme of this round of dialogue is "laying the cornerstone of long-term Sino-US economic partnership". Accordingly, how China and the United States coordinate their actions to manage macroeconomic risks has become one of the most urgent core topics in this round of dialogue.
What is more noteworthy is that after the crisis, China no longer needs negotiation pressure from the United States to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth from export-oriented to relying on the domestic market, which undoubtedly has more urgent needs and stronger driving force; With the international oil price rapidly falling below $50 per barrel and the unanimous demand of the United States and the international community for a strong dollar, the internal and external environment and atmosphere of the United States exerting pressure on the RMB exchange rate issue have further weakened. On the contrary, China's demand for the United States to strengthen effective supervision of Wall Street and boost the confidence of domestic consumers will surely become the new content of the old topic of "promoting balanced economic growth".
At the same time, asking China to play a greater role and assume greater responsibilities in the world financial system, including the IMF and the World Bank, may also be a new requirement of the US in this round of dialogue.
Data: China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue Mechanism
The China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue is the highest-level dialogue in the economic field between China and the United States. This dialogue mechanism was proposed by the United States, agreed by China, and officially launched on September 20, 2006 after serious consultations between the two sides.
On August 26th, 2006, China president Hu Jintao telephoned US President Bush at the invitation. Bush said that the United States hopes that the two countries will strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the economic field, so that bilateral economic and trade relations will continue to maintain a strong momentum of development. Hu Jintao said that with the increasingly close economic ties between China and the United States, strengthening the dialogue between the two sides in the economic field is conducive to the development of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries and the constructive cooperative relationship between China and the United States, and will also have a positive impact on world economic growth and global stability and security. China is willing to keep in touch with the United States on this issue.
In order to implement the important understanding reached by the two heads of state, from September 6 to September 22 of the same year, US Treasury Secretary Henry Merritt Paulson visited China on establishing the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue. Vice Premier Wu Yi held talks with him and announced the establishment of a dialogue mechanism. On September 20th, China and the United States issued the Joint Statement on Launching the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue Mechanism.
According to the agreement statement, the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue will mainly discuss bilateral and global strategic economic issues with common interests and concerns. The dialogue is held twice a year, alternately in the two capitals. From June 5 to February 2006, China and the United States held the first strategic economic dialogue in Beijing. Since then, the second, third and fourth China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue were held in May 2007, February and June 2008 in Washington and Beijing respectively.
China and the United States have strong economic complementarities and great potential for cooperation and development. Mutual benefit and win-win is the mainstream of Sino-US economic and trade relations. With the deepening of economic and trade cooperation, the strategic economic dialogue mechanism has become an important platform for the two countries to discuss global, strategic and long-term economic issues involving both sides. Through dialogue, China and the United States reached a series of important understandings and signed a number of agreements, which promoted pragmatic cooperation between the two sides. China and the United States have become each other's second largest trading partners. In 2007, the bilateral trade volume between the two countries reached US$ 302.08 billion.