Two years ago, Lianhe Zaobao's article "Asian financial crisis resurfaces" gave an accurate warning, and Soros just arrived as scheduled. At that time, it was suggested that China should start the strategic devaluation of RMB, so that the RMB exchange rate would not have such a big bubble. An overvalued exchange rate is like the higher you stand, the worse you fall. Unfortunately, these two years have basically been wasted, and the RMB is still overvalued by at least 20%. This bubble is very big. Predictions are meaningless if they are not adopted.
The overvaluation of RMB exchange rate is the same as the PE value of A shares in June last year, and what needs to be eliminated is debt leverage. To some extent, China's debt inflation is like a long RMB position that has been gambled too much. Generally speaking, China has acquired more RMB assets through loans (real estate, coal mines and other commodity enterprises, etc.). ), this is a typical Ponzi financing process. In the end, China will face a spectacular subprime mortgage crisis through parcels, and the RMB may depreciate like diving.
Soros mentioned that he was shorting Asian currencies, but what he meant was that the bursting of the RMB bubble would drag down the entire Asian currency. Why? Because China is the growth engine of Asia as a whole. In 20 12, the total bilateral trade between China and ASEAN reached 400 billion dollars, and the total bilateral investment reached 1007 billion dollars. China has become the most important growth point of ASEAN's future exports and foreign direct investment. China's economic soft landing is the best firewall for the whole Asian economy.
20 12 Looking around from China, the whole of Asia is also experiencing the biggest credit expansion in history. In the latest research report at that time, Standard & Poor's pointed out that in the next five years, non-financial enterprises in the Asia-Pacific region will account for half of the global debt increase, and their total debt issuance and refinancing will reach 53 trillion US dollars, and the net debt balance in this region will be greater than the sum of North America, the euro zone and the United Kingdom.
Not only are Asian companies crazy, but Asian families don't give up. Throughout the region, the level of household debt is also very high. According to the data of S&P 20 12, the ratio of household debt to GDP is 8 1% in Malaysia, 77% in Thailand and 75% in South Korea. Once house prices are lowered by 20%, the net worth of many families in these countries will become negative. This happened in the United States last time, which led to the subprime mortgage crisis. In view of this, coupled with the strict requirements of Basel III on bank capital, Asian banks may face a very cruel test in the future. In Soros's words, Asian banks are the best choice for shorting in the future.
According to the IMF's latest report on global financial stability at that time, the financial systems of China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia were on the verge of fragility in terms of external environment and internal structure, and Soros gave China two or three years to save himself!
The author will dissect the situation in Malaysia as a sparrow. One of the biggest headaches in Malaysia is the rise of shadow banking after the government strengthened banking supervision. In 20 12, two-thirds of Malaysia's personal financing growth came from shadow banking, amounting to RM 43 billion; Non-bank financial institutions accounted for 57% of the total personal financing, of which the total credit of the three major institutions increased by 23. 1% and the total personal financing business increased by 30%. The ratio of total household debt to GDP in Malaysia rose from 75.8% a year ago to 865,438+0%. 0.7% of 865438+ family's total debt comes from bank loans, of which 56% is used to buy real estate.
The situation in Malaysia and China is somewhat similar. Shadow banking is rampant, and the property market has become the most favored arbitrage channel for investors. Like China, the real estate crisis in many Asian countries is probably caused by the debt crisis in the financial system.
As a whole, Asia as a whole is facing the dilemma of China. Asian countries are closely linked, just like chains connecting ships, while debt expansion is like a fire attack. If you can't do it well, burn Chibi. This is what Soros expected when he said that "China still has two or three years to solve the debt problem". All he has to do is bide his time and follow the trend.
Now that Soros has arrived as scheduled, how to play the next script? The People's Daily also sternly warned him in an article, but the problem is that the biggest bear in the RMB bubble is not Soros, but ourselves. In the past, we used the ultra-low interest rate of the Federal Reserve to borrow a lot of dollars for arbitrage (in the past, we mainly invested in real estate and shadow banking financial products). At present, the foreign debt balance of enterprises in China has reached about10.5 trillion US dollars, of which 70% or 80% is short-term debt within one year. So desperate to deleverage the RMB, in the end, it is said that foreign conspiracy predators are this short position and that short position of the RMB. In fact, the biggest bear is ourselves:
"According to the research report of Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Finance Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, since 20 10, it is not foreign institutional investors who have shorted the RMB exchange rate in Hong Kong NDF market, but mainly Chinese mainland enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises in Chinese mainland. In terms of specific operation mode, because the domestic RMB loan interest rate in China is obviously higher than the US dollar loan interest rate, some state-owned enterprises borrow US dollar loans from commercial banks and then convert US dollars into RMB for domestic investment or liquidity business. Through this operation, state-owned enterprises can borrow RMB at a lower interest rate, thus taking advantage of the spread of local and foreign currency loans. However, this arbitrage will add a foreign currency liability to the balance sheet of state-owned enterprises, thus making state-owned enterprises bear the risk of foreign currency appreciation. In order to hedge the risk of foreign currency appreciation, state-owned enterprises can go to the NDF market in Hong Kong and sell a forward foreign exchange contract in RMB and USD, with the same term as the loan in USD. Through the above-mentioned forward foreign exchange transactions, enterprises can successfully lock in the exchange rate risk of RMB to US dollars in the future, thus paying the principal and interest. In short, this operation mode of borrowing US dollar loans for RMB use and selling RMB forward contracts in the offshore RMB market can help state-owned enterprises capture the spread between local and foreign currency loans without bearing substantial exchange rate risks. "
In addition, a while ago, the central bank almost paralyzed short positions in the offshore RMB market. My evaluation is: "The offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is extremely beneficial to the normal release of RMB depreciation pressure. Just like some shady operations, if performed in a serious hospital, although the news will be leaked, it can save lives. If you go to a black hospital for treatment, it is difficult to know whether you are dead or alive. In addition to the regular hospitals in the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, there is also a black hospital-that is, the black market of underground banks.
According to the research report of Societe Generale, the scale of underground banks in China is as high as $470-627 billion. In order to support the exchange rate, while strictly controlling the official channels to buy dollars, Yang Ma reduced the offshore RMB fund pool, so more and more people had to flock to the black market of underground banks to buy dollars. At that time, it depends on how Yang Ma will intervene in the black market exchange rate of RMB. Now there are many scalpers in front of many banks. Mom's empty warehouse didn't explode, but she just made a super business promotion of the dollar black market in the money house. "
Results A few days ago, I saw a report in the National Business Daily, which verified my judgment:
Recently, the largest series of cases of illegal trading of foreign exchange (black market in US dollars) in China was heard in Lanxi People's Court in Jinhua, Zhejiang. Eight relatively independent gangs, involving more than 410 billion yuan, with more than10.3 million transaction records. The bank defaulted to the "green channel". In the trial on June 5438+ 10/5, Shimou said that his usual office was in the international business department of the bank. "The bank staff acquiesced and occasionally helped introduce customers." In this regard, the other two people of Shimou's gang also have similar expressions. Qiu said, "We don't need to take the initiative to contact (customers), (bank staff) has always been very supportive, and many customers are introduced by them. We don't know each other. They brought it here to trust us. " The person in charge of RMB transfer in Shimou gang called "VIP room on the first floor of the bank" when answering the office location, and said that "(bank staff) are very polite and sometimes make tea or something". The lawyer of a defender of Shimou gang said that the suspect had publicly traded in the bank and had never been stopped by the administrative supervisor or bank staff for three years. They even had dinner with bank staff, indicating that the financial industry acquiesced in this foreign exchange transaction. At the same time, the case is related to the general environment of Yiwu, and banks cannot meet the demand for foreign exchange transactions. The handling fee for replacing 6,543,800 RMB dollars with underground money houses is about 6,543,800 RMB ~ 6,543,800 RMB.
At present, the business of China dollar black market is not generally prosperous. During the period of the former Soviet Union, the difference between the official exchange rate and the black market exchange rate of the ruble could more than double. Yang Ma can break the short position in the offshore RMB market, close the offshore RMB market and instruct the official channels not to exchange foreign exchange, but to no avail. Because the result of this is the rise of the black market of the dollar. On the black market, the RMB exchange rate fell, and my mother could do nothing.
I once pointed out in my blog: "Foreigners from America are not terrible. The most terrible thing is our own people, eating our own meat and not spitting bones. " By the same token, the person who has made the biggest profit from holding on to the RMB in the past decade and the biggest short position in the RMB exchange rate in the future is the person who eats his own flesh and doesn't spit bones.
Soros is here, but Lian Po is old? But don't forget, behind the predators is the whole team and organization! Moreover, the most terrible short position of RMB is not overseas, but infernal affairs hidden among us.
Basic judgment on the current situation:
1, the current government still insists on the bottom line thinking, that is, openly saying that it will not take the old road of stimulus, but it will not allow the economic growth rate to drop sharply. It should be said that this is very demanding for the formulation and implementation of policies, and it is also widely influenced by the international environment, and the difficulty can be imagined. At present, the behavior pattern of the bureaucratic system has undergone profound changes. In the past ten years, the rules that brought high efficiency from interest orientation have been broken, and administrative efficiency is in doubt. It is difficult to achieve the bottom line goal, which may be more difficult.
2. Foreign exchange is the most uncertain variable, which actually bears the international pressure and is of great significance to China. From this point of view, it is impossible to lose foreign exchange, so it is almost impossible to cut interest rates and the probability of reducing RRR is not great. It will be extremely wrong to strengthen foreign exchange control, because it will completely expose the lack of confidence in foreign exchange strength, and China people will snap up and run all restricted commodities, thus intensifying the pressure on foreign exchange. It is neither fair nor effective to restrict ordinary people's exchange of foreign exchange, because powerful people can't. This is a big head. The correct way is to adopt a moderately tight foreign exchange policy, severely crack down on illegal foreign exchange outflows, and maintain or even relax normal foreign exchange demand;
Although some places have doubts about foreign exchange assets, it is more than enough to maintain the situation. Adjustment institutions should gradually give way to steady growth to ensure employment. Some institutions estimate that the current debt balance accounts for 235% of GDP, so it should be said that the employment risk is increased through leverage, so the deficit and credit should be strictly controlled. The central government is more likely to stimulate consumption and increase investment by reducing taxes. The comprehensive solution to the problem of reducing leverage and raising investment funds is to change indirect financing into direct financing. The stock market is one way.