The policy objectives put forward by macroeconomic theory are not immutable. Before the global financial crisis in 2008, the policy objectives were mainly to achieve economic stability, stabilize short-term economic fluctuations and maximize the level of social welfare as much as possible. Specifically, economic stability mainly includes growth stability and price stability. In the short term, there is a trade-off between growth stability and price stability. For example, in a certain period of time, policy makers need to moderately increase their tolerance for inflation to avoid a sharp decline in economic growth. In the long run, there is no trade-off between stable growth and stable prices, and maintaining a low and stable inflation environment is particularly important for promoting economic growth. Therefore, most countries' macro-policies adopt a step-by-step target strategy, that is, price stability is the long-term goal of macro-policies, and a constrained camera choice is made between growth and inflation in the short term according to changes in the economic situation.
However, policy practice shows that it is not enough for macroeconomic policies to focus only on economic stability, but also on financial stability. Especially during the relaxation period of the global financial crisis from the mid-1980s to 2008, although the American economy remained stable for a long time under the effective control of macro-policies, the instability of the financial system continued to intensify, which eventually triggered the global financial crisis. Some recent theoretical studies have also found that a good and stable economic environment will often increase the risk-taking incentives of market participants, thus aggravating the fragility of the financial system. At the same time, under the amplification mechanism of financial accelerator, once the financial market fluctuates greatly or the financial system is not working smoothly, it will easily lead to a long-term and deep recession. For this reason, before the global financial crisis in 2008, modern macroeconomic theory broke the traditional view that financial stability can be guaranteed by ensuring economic stability, and realized that financial stability is also an important goal that macroeconomic policies must pay attention to.
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, achieving the dual stability of economy and finance has become the core goal of macro-policy. While formulating monetary policies to ensure economic stability, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have all been given more important responsibilities to maintain financial stability. Take the Federal Reserve as an example. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, signed and implemented in 20 10, gives the Fed the power to supervise systemically important non-bank financial institutions and savings holding companies, thus strengthening the role of the Fed in maintaining financial stability. Moreover, some developed economies have set up functional departments to monitor and prevent financial risks, such as the Financial Stability Regulatory Association (FSOC) in the United States and the Systemic Risk Committee (ESRB) in Europe, to further ensure the stable operation of the financial system. Macro-policy tools also change according to the adjustment of policy objectives, and macro-prudential policy is regarded as an important tool alongside monetary policy and fiscal policy. Among them, monetary policy and fiscal policy are the main tools to achieve economic stability, and the role of monetary policy is more important; Macro-prudential policy is the main tool to achieve financial stability.
Second, the evolution path of China's macro-policy objectives and its considerations
Since entering the new normal, China's economy has been faced with a complicated situation of "three-phase superposition" of the shift period of growth, the painful period of structural adjustment and the digestive period of previous stimulus policies, so the macro-policy objectives have been constantly adjusted and changed: 20 12 macro-policy objectives are "stable growth, structural adjustment and control of inflation expectations"; 20 13 is adjusted to "steady growth, transformation mode and structural adjustment"; 20 14 means "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform"; 20 15 means "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting transformation"; 20 16 is further expanded to "stabilize growth, adjust structure, benefit people's livelihood and prevent risks". Generally speaking, since the new normal, the formulation of macro-policy objectives has shown the following three characteristics.
(a) attaches great importance to economic stability, and always lists "steady growth" as the primary goal.
Since 20 12, "steady growth" has been listed as the primary position of macro-policy objectives. The reasons are as follows.
1. While China's economy has entered a new normal, the global economy has also entered a new mediocre stage. The sluggish demand at home and abroad has always led to a negative gap in China's economic output, which requires the reverse adjustment of macro policies. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the United States, Japan, Europe and other major economies have not achieved the expected "V" recovery, but have fallen into the predicament of weak economic growth, and the economic growth rate has always been significantly lower than the pre-crisis level. Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, called this state the new mediocrity of the global economy. Affected by the global economic downturn, China's economic external demand has shrunk significantly, and the export growth rate has dropped significantly from about 20% of 20 1 1 to about -8% of 20 16. At the same time, the growth rate of consumption and investment under the new normal is also declining (see figure 1). Because the three major demands are relatively weak, according to the author's calculation, the actual growth rate of China's economy has always been lower than the potential growth rate since the new normal, and the output gap is between-0.3% and-1%(see Figure 2). The main purpose of macro-policy is to adjust short-term economic fluctuations countercyclically and make the actual growth rate of the economy close to the potential growth rate. Therefore, under the new normal, macroeconomic policies need to put "steady growth" in the most important position.
2. In order to achieve the goal of "two hundred years" and successfully cross the "middle income trap", China's economy still needs to maintain a certain growth rate. The goal of "two hundred years" refers to "building a well-off society in an all-round way by the centenary of the founding of China Producers' Party" and "building a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized and harmonious socialist modern country by the centenary of the founding of New China". The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that in order to achieve the first centennial goal of "building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020", it is necessary to "double the GDP and the per capita income of urban and rural residents in 20 10 years by 2020". Thus, it can be seen that maintaining high-speed economic growth in China is an important prerequisite for achieving the first centennial goal. Similarly, the core sign of crossing the "middle income trap" is that China's per capita GDP has reached the standards of high-income countries. By the end of 20 15, China's per capita GDP was about 8,000 US dollars, which was far from the standard of high-income countries defined by the World Bank (per capita GDP was above12,746 US dollars), which also required the economic growth rate to continue to maintain a high level.
3. Under the new normal, the employment pressure continues to increase, and the development of social security system is still relatively lagging behind, which makes it difficult to bear the rapid decline of economic growth. In terms of employment, although the absolute number of working-age population in China has been declining since 20 12 years, it does not mean that the employment pressure in China has begun to ease. On the one hand, the rapid progress of urbanization makes a large number of rural surplus labor force transfer to cities and towns every year. On the other hand, the continuous expansion of colleges and universities makes the number of college graduates reach a new high every year. According to Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security's data, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, the number of workers to be arranged in cities and towns in China remained at about 25 million each year, which was higher than that in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period before the new normal. It can be seen that the employment pressure has further intensified under the new normal.
In terms of social security, due to the imperfect social security system in China, the level of social security between urban and rural areas is quite different, and the security systems such as pension and medical care even show the characteristics of "loving the poor and loving the rich", which makes it difficult to fully protect the needy groups during the period of rapid economic decline. In addition, the government's financial expenditure on people's livelihood is still low. Once the economic growth rate drops sharply and the fiscal revenue growth rate drops, the government's livelihood expenditure is likely to be difficult to meet the rigid demand of people's livelihood. Therefore, the government work report of 20 16 also emphasizes that "steady growth is mainly to ensure employment and benefit people's livelihood"
(b) Increasing emphasis on financial stability.
In the past five years, the Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the need to strengthen the prevention of risks in the financial sector when formulating macro-policy tasks for next year, and the degree of attention has been continuously improved. 20 1 1 the meeting at the end of the year pointed out that "effectively preventing potential risks in economic operation should be placed in an important position of macro-control"; At the end of 20 12, the meeting emphasized that "we should attach great importance to the hidden risks in the financial sector"; The meeting at the end of 20 13 put forward "focusing on preventing and controlling debt risks" and listed it as one of the main tasks of economic work; The meeting at the end of 20 14 pointed out that it is necessary to "strengthen risk prevention and control" and list it as an important task such as "paying close attention to reform and tackling key problems" and "highlighting innovation drive"; The meeting at the end of 20 15 formally listed "risk prevention" as the macro-policy objective, and pointed out that the macro-policy in 20 16 should "adhere to steady growth, adjust the structure, benefit people's livelihood and prevent risks".
The increasing emphasis on "risk prevention" is not only in line with the new understanding that macroeconomic policies should pay attention to financial stability, but also because China's financial risks continue to rise under the new normal, especially the rapid rise of debt ratio, which leads to increasing debt risks. Since the global financial crisis, China's debt ratio has risen sharply from 147.0% in 2008 to 249.4% at the end of 20 15, which is significantly higher than other major economies such as Japan and the United States. The debt ratio of non-financial enterprises is as high as 165.4%, ranking first in the world (see table 1). Moreover, it is worth noting that there is a linkage mechanism between various financial risks, such as the interweaving of debt risk and asset bubble risk, which will easily lead the economy into a more serious "debt-deflation" crisis, thus further aggravating the overall financial risk in China. Therefore, it is necessary to attach great importance to preventing financial risks at the macro-policy level.
(three) according to the actual economic operation, taking into account other goals such as "restructuring".
Judging from the macro-policy objectives in the past five years, China's macro-policy not only pays attention to "steady growth" and "preventing risks", but also pays attention to other objectives such as "adjusting the structure", "changing the mode" and "promoting reform". Although it deviates from the goals of economic stability and financial stability suggested by modern macroeconomic theory, it is necessary and reasonable based on the consideration of China's economic reality.
Especially for "restructuring", the past few years have been an important goal of macroeconomic policy concern. The reason is that most modern macroeconomic theories are based on the mature experience of developed countries, but unlike the stable economic structure of developed countries, China's economic structure has been in the process of adjustment. Since the new normal, China's overcapacity and other problems have become more serious, and the task of structural adjustment has become more urgent. If macro-policies do not consider these structural problems and continue to implement the stimulus policy of "flood irrigation" to maintain rapid economic growth, it is likely to further aggravate the imbalance of economic structure and is not conducive to sustainable development. Therefore, macroeconomic policies need to achieve "maintaining pressure, supporting and controlling" within the economic structure, and coordinate the relationship between "steady growth" and "structural adjustment".
Macro-policy's attention to other goals is also aimed at the needs of the economic situation at that time. The focus of macro-policy in 20 12 is "managing inflation expectations", because the inflation momentum in 20 1 1 year is fierce, and CPI and PPI increase by 5.4% and 6% respectively, which requires macro-policy to curb the excessive rise of price level. 20 13' s emphasis on "transformation mode" is in line with the requirements of accelerating the transformation of economic development mode put forward in the report of the 18th National Congress. Due to the unsustainable development mode of high investment in the past, macro-policies need to "achieve growth in the transformation of economic development mode" and "enhance the basic role of consumption in economic growth". In 20 14, the macro-policy paid more attention to "promoting reform", which was consistent with the general direction of comprehensively deepening reform established by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. At that time, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward a new idea of "integrating reform into regulation". 20 15 Although the macro-policy once again puts the "mode of transformation" in a more important position, it also proposes to continue to "pay close attention to reform and tackle key problems". The emphasis on "benefiting people's livelihood" in the macro-policy of 20 16 is more the poverty alleviation goal of "all poverty-stricken areas and poor people will enter a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020". In order to achieve this goal, the average number of poor people per month will be reduced 1 10,000. "Time is tight, and the task is heavy and arduous", which requires that macro policies should take into account "benefiting people's livelihood".
Iii. Interpretation of 20 17 Macro Policy Objectives
According to the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro-policy objectives for 20 17 are "steady growth, promoting reform, restructuring, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks". Although compared with the goal of "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks" in 20 16, the macro-policy goal in 20 17 has been adjusted, but it still continues the basic idea of macro-policy goal formulation in the past five years.
(A) "Steady growth" and "risk prevention" are in line with the dual stability objectives of economic stability and financial stability proposed by modern macroeconomic theory, and are also the core tasks of the 20 17 macroeconomic policy.
In 20 16, the economic growth rate of China slowed down to about 6.7%, which was the lowest point in recent 20 years. Research institutions at home and abroad generally predict that the economic growth rate of China will further slow down in 20 17, and it is likely to drop to about 6.5%. In the face of the downward growth rate, macro policies need to be actively responded. On the one hand, according to the author's calculation, the potential economic growth rate of China in 20 17 is about 6.7%, and the actual growth rate drops to about 6.5%, which means that there will be a negative output gap of about 0.2 percentage points in 20 17. This requires macroeconomic policies to play a countercyclical role in adjusting short-term economic fluctuations and eliminating the output gap. On the other hand, China is currently facing the important task of achieving the first "centenary goal", that is, "building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020", which requires "doubling the gross domestic product and the per capita income of urban and rural residents by 2020", and the average economic growth rate from 20 16 to 2020 should reach at least 6.5%. In view of the above two reasons, the macro policy in 20 17 needs to continue to attach great importance to "steady growth".
At the same time, China's economy is facing increasingly severe financial risks, not only the high debt risk has not been effectively alleviated, but also the financial risks in other fields have intensified. First, the non-performing loan ratio of banks continued to rise, reaching 65,438+0.76% by the end of the third quarter of 2065,438+06, the highest level in seven years. According to the calculation of CICC, the risk exposure scale of off-balance-sheet business of banks is about 40 trillion yuan, which may further bring 3.2-4 trillion yuan of non-performing loans, which is significantly higher than that of on-balance-sheet non-performing loans, thus reflecting that the risk of non-performing loans of banks is actually more serious. Second, due to the continuous downturn of the real economy, the tendency of funds to "break away from reality" is more serious, and the risk of "recession bubble" is higher. The stock market bubble of 20 15 and the house price bubble of 20 16 are both typical cases of "recession bubble", and the "recession bubble" of 20 17 may appear in a new form. Third, the sharp depreciation of the RMB has further increased the risk of capital outflow. Since "8 1 1 exchange rate reform", by the end of 20 16, the RMB has depreciated by more than 10% against the US dollar, and the consumption of foreign exchange reserves is about 600 billion US dollars, a decrease of16. Considering that the United States will accelerate the pace of interest rate increase on 20 17, this will put China under greater pressure of exchange rate depreciation and capital outflow. It can be seen that the "risk prevention" task of 20 17 macro policy is very arduous, so the Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that "the prevention and control of financial risks should be placed in a more important position".
(2) "Promoting reform", "restructuring" and "benefiting people's livelihood" are mainly based on the practical considerations of deepening structural reform on the supply side and ensuring the stability of the overall social situation.
20 17 macro-policy attaches great importance to "promoting reform" and "restructuring", especially "promoting reform" will rank second only to "steady growth". This is mainly because 20 17 is "the year of deepening supply-side structural reform" and economic work should "insist on promoting supply-side structural reform as the main line" The supply-side structural reform mainly aims at structural problems such as oversupply of low-end and insufficient supply of high-end in China's economic operation. "Starting with improving the quality of supply, we will promote structural adjustment by means of reform, correct the distortion of factor allocation, expand effective supply, improve the adaptability and flexibility of supply structure to demand changes, and improve total factor productivity", thus "promoting sustained and healthy economic and social development". 20 16 the supply-side structural reform with "three to one, one reduction and one supplement" as the main starting point "has achieved initial results, and the relationship between supply and demand in some industries and the ideas and behaviors of the government and enterprises have undergone positive changes". 20 17 supply-side structural reform further includes such important contents as "deepening the structural reform of agricultural supply side", "vigorously revitalizing the real economy" and "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market". Therefore, the macro-policy needs to focus on "promoting reform" and "adjusting structure" and cooperate with the deepening of supply-side structural reform.
Macro-policies focus on "benefiting people's livelihood" and ensuring the stability of the overall social situation. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 20 16 clearly pointed out that "stability is the main tone, stability is the overall situation, we should make progress in key areas on the premise of stability, and make a difference on the premise of grasping the degree", which shows that maintaining social stability is the key prerequisite for promoting various economic work. At present, China is really facing enormous social and livelihood pressures. First, the growth rate of residents' income declined rapidly. In the first three quarters of 20 16, the per capita disposable income of national residents only increased by 6.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the GDP growth rate for the first time in the past six years, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents even fell to 5.7%. Second, the gap between the rich and the poor continues to be high. The Gini coefficient of national residents' income is obviously higher than the international warning line of 0.4, and the Gini coefficient of property which can better reflect the gap between the rich and the poor is above 0.7. Third, the contradiction between labor supply and demand will be further aggravated, especially in 20 17, the number of college graduates is expected to reach the highest level in history, 7.95 million, and the deepening of the process of "de-capacity" will bring unemployment in some areas. In view of this, it is necessary for the macro policy of 20 17 to give consideration to "benefiting people's livelihood", do a good job in social support and maintain social harmony and stability.