First, the impact of RMB appreciation on China's macro economy.
1. Model calculation basis
The impact of exchange rate changes on the national economy is first manifested as the initial impact (direct impact) caused by import and export price changes. With other factors unchanged, the magnitude of this influence is mainly determined by the elasticity of import and export prices. The quantitative analysis of China's trade development since the reform and opening up shows that the elasticity of China's export price is 1, that is, every increase of China's export price relative to the world's export price by 1 percentage point will reduce the growth rate of general trade exports by 1 percentage point. The elasticity of China's import price is 0.4, that is, for every 1 percentage point decrease of China's import price relative to the world's import price, the import growth rate increases by 0.4 percentage point.
The impact of exchange rate changes on the national economy should not only consider the initial impact of import and export price changes, but also consider the echo effect (indirect impact) of exchange rate changes on economic growth. For imports, the initial impact of exchange rate appreciation will lead to an increase in imports, but appreciation will lead to a decrease in export demand and a slowdown in GDP growth, but it will reduce the demand for imports. Quantitative analysis shows that China's GDP growth rate decreases by 1 percentage point, and the actual import growth rate decreases by 1.33 percentage point, so the echo effect of imports plays a certain weakening role. As for exports, as a big economic and trade country, not only the initial impact of exchange rate appreciation will inhibit exports; At the same time, the slowdown of domestic economy and trade will lead to the slowdown of world economy and trade, which will further reduce domestic export demand. The quantitative analysis shows that the world economic growth rate decreases by 1 percentage point, and the actual export growth rate of China decreases by 2.7 percentage points, so the echo effect of exports is a superposition effect on reducing exports.
It can be seen that currency appreciation inhibits exports more than imports, and the impact of domestic and international economic slowdown on imports and exports is stronger than price changes.
2. Calculation results and analysis
According to RMB appreciation 1%, 2%, 3% and 5%, the influence on the main indicators of the national economy is calculated through the model, as shown in Table 1 and Table 2. According to table 1 and table 2, the RMB appreciated by 2%, the export growth rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points, and the import growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points. According to the data of 2004, it is equivalent to a decrease of $9 1 billion in exports, an increase of $654,380+0.2 billion in imports, a decrease in trade surplus from $32 billion to $210.7 billion, and a decrease in net export demand of RMB 85.2 billion, which will affect the GDP growth rate in that year (the GDP calculated by expenditure method in that year was1. The prices of imported products such as energy, raw materials, machinery and equipment are reduced, so are the prices of corresponding domestic products, the investment cost of enterprises is reduced, and the willingness of enterprises to invest may be enhanced; At the same time, the decline of domestic price level and the obstruction of export will also squeeze the profit space of enterprises and weaken their willingness to invest. As a result of the comprehensive effect, the nominal investment decreased by 0.2 percentage points, while the real investment increased by 0.2 percentage points. The decline in the price of consumer goods is conducive to the increase in consumption, but due to the slowdown in economic growth and the decline in income level, the actual consumption growth rate has dropped by 0. 1 percentage point. Considering the three major changes in demand, GDP growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points, consumer price index dropped by 0.4 percentage points, employment decreased by 500,000 people, fiscal revenue growth rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points, RMB deposits in financial institutions dropped by 0.7 percentage points, and the growth rates of money supply M0, M 1 and M2 dropped by 0.4, 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.
The model calculation shows that the impact of one-off exchange rate changes on the national economy will decrease with the passage of time, the impact will be reduced by half in the second year, and the impact will basically disappear after two years.
Second, the impact of RMB appreciation on major industries in China.
After the appreciation of RMB, due to the increase of imports, the decrease of exports, the corresponding decrease of consumer demand and the slight increase of investment, the added value of industries with high dependence on foreign trade is affected to varying degrees. The calculation results are shown in Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5.
1. Impact on Three Major Industries
The RMB appreciated by 2%. From the data of 2004, the added value of the primary industry decreased by 9.4 billion yuan, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, accounting for 6.3% of the growth rate of that year. The industrial added value of the secondary industry decreased by 54.4 billion yuan, and the growth rate decreased by 0.7 percentage point, accounting for 6.1.5% of the growth rate of industrial added value in that year; The added value of the construction industry increased by 700 million yuan, and the growth rate increased by 0. 1 percentage point; The added value of the tertiary industry decreased by 122 billion yuan, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points, accounting for 3.6% of the 8.3% growth rate of that year.
2. Impact on some industries
In the industrial sector, industries with a large export share, such as textiles, machinery, electronics and chemicals, have been adversely affected by the appreciation of the RMB.
With the appreciation of RMB 2%, China's textile exports, as a major exporter, decreased by US$ 2 billion. The added value decreased by 9 billion yuan and the growth rate decreased by nearly 2 percentage points. The export of machinery industry decreased by $654.38+0.4 billion; The added value decreased 1 1 100 million yuan, and the growth rate decreased 1. 1 percentage point. The export of electronic industry decreased by $654.38+08 billion; The added value decreased by 8.5 billion yuan, and the growth rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points. The export of chemical industry decreased by $800 million; The added value decreased by 8.5 billion yuan, and the growth rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points.
Three, some views on adjusting the RMB exchange rate
1. It has a certain cooling effect on the macro-economy in the short term, but it has little effect.
A 2% appreciation of RMB will affect the GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points, 500,000 people will be employed and the consumer price index will be 0.4 percentage points. This effect is the theoretical result under the strict assumption that other economic conditions remain unchanged. In fact, because China's exchange rate is adjusted when the national economy is still in a prosperous stage, the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers is still strong, and the actual impact on the macro economy may not be as great as theoretically estimated. A small adjustment of the exchange rate will not bring a big impact on the macro economy. On the contrary, in the medium and long term, promoting the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is conducive to alleviating the imbalance of foreign trade and optimizing resource allocation; It is conducive to enhancing the independence of monetary policy and improving the initiative and effectiveness of financial supervision; It is conducive to prompting enterprises to change their operating mechanism, enhance their independent innovation ability, accelerate the transformation of foreign trade growth mode, and improve their international competitiveness and anti-risk ability; Conducive to optimizing the industrial structure.
Now is a good time to adjust the exchange rate.
From the macroeconomic fundamentals, the GDP increased by 9.5% in the first half of the year, which still maintained a high growth rate. There was neither obvious inflation nor deflation. From June to June, 5.95 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and 2.58 million laid-off and unemployed people were re-employed. The employment situation is good. Fiscal revenue grew steadily, financial operation was basically stable, the growth rate of fixed assets investment was still at a high level, and consumption growth accelerated. If the macroeconomic situation is good, the ability to resist the impact of RMB appreciation on the economy will be strong and the negative impact on the economy will be small. From the financial system and foreign exchange market, at present, China's foreign exchange management is gradually relaxed, the construction of foreign exchange market is constantly strengthened, market tools are gradually popularized, substantial progress has been made in the reform of state-owned commercial banks, and the ability of enterprises to resist and avoid exchange rate risks has been enhanced. Judging from the expectation of appreciation, in recent months, the US dollar has strengthened against most currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen, with a general appreciation of 5% ~10%; The spread between the US dollar interest rate and the RMB interest rate is widening. The emergence of these factors weakens the expectation of RMB appreciation and is conducive to preventing speculation. Therefore, now is a favorable opportunity to promote exchange rate reform.
3. Flexible use of macro-control policies to deal with the impact of exchange rate changes.
China adopts a one-time appreciation of 2%, followed by a managed floating exchange rate system. Under this system, if the market expectation is much higher than the appreciation of RMB, the RMB may rise to the highest floating point for several consecutive trading days, and the appreciation range is too large in a short time. Profitable speculative capital may also flow out of China quickly. These problems will adversely affect China's macro-economy and agriculture, textile, machinery, electronics and other industries. To this end, first, according to the changes in the balance of payments, moderately intervene in the foreign exchange market to maintain the basic stability of the RMB; Second, make use of various available trade protection measures to optimize the structure of imported products and minimize the impact on agriculture and other industries; Third, according to the inflow or outflow trend of international hot money, adjust macro-control policies in time to stabilize the growth of domestic demand.