To be an excellent foreign exchange investor, you must go through the following steps:
First, the psychological and behavioral analysis of the foreign exchange market
For most small investors, their situation is even worse: they have limited experience and have to pay a considerable tuition fee every time they encounter a trap they have not encountered; Limited capital, often just entering the foreign exchange market, has been exhausted; The possession of information is also at a disadvantage. Therefore, in this fascinating zero-sum game, the general public often becomes the victim of the bottom.
1, one of the psychological misunderstandings: rushing to a crowded place.
Blind obedience is the fatal psychological weakness of the public. As soon as an economic data was released, a news suddenly flashed, and the price chart "broke through" in five minutes, and they rushed into the market. I'm not afraid that everyone will lose money together, but I'm afraid that everyone will make money only myself.
In fact, the market is fair, and it is difficult for any individual to manipulate the daily turnover of nearly one trillion dollars in the current foreign exchange market. 1Since September, 1992, due to the European currency crisis, market speculators have thrown out pounds, causing the pound to plummet by 5,000 points in a short time. The Bank of England intervened many times and even raised interest rates, but to no avail.
In the foreign exchange market, for investors, "don't go to crowded places" is a motto worth remembering.
2. The second psychological misunderstanding: losing luck wins greed.
Price fluctuation can be basically divided into upward trend, downward trend and stall trend. You can't make orders against the trend. If the contrarian order is stuck, don't add orders to lower the average price. Although the general trend will eventually come to an end, we should not speculate on the top or bottom of the market price and stick to a certain price. The top and bottom of the market price should be formed by the market itself. Once the trend changes, it is the biggest profit opportunity. It is necessary to follow up decisively ... Many investors know the truth of making orders, but in actual operation, they often make orders against the market, and it is not uncommon to be quilted for hundreds or even a thousand points at a time. What is the reason?
An important reason is that due to the limited funds, no matter the loss or profit after entering the order, the mind is disturbed by the loss and loses the ability to follow the technical analysis and trading rules.
Some investors often like to lock orders when they make mistakes, that is, lock the original loss orders with new purchase orders or sale orders. This operation method was invented by some financial companies in Hong Kong and Taiwan Province, and it is easy for investors to keep a psychological balance when accepting losses, because investors can expect to bill when the price is nearing the end.
In fact, after locking the order, when investors reconsider making the order, they often instinctively close the profit order and leave the loss order instead of considering the market trend. In most cases, the price will continue to move in the direction of investors' losses, so it will be locked and then opened. Unconsciously, the price of the locked order will expand by hundreds of points.
Unlocking orders inadvertently become contrarian orders again and again. Occasionally catch a rebound of one or two hundred points, and often refuse to cut the order because the price of the loss order is too far away. As a result, the losses are getting bigger and bigger.
Probably every investor knows the importance of quickly reducing the loss list. Novices lose money by floating orders, and veterans lose money by floating orders. Floating lists are the deadliest of all errors. However, investors still repeat this mistake again and again. Why?
The reason is that ordinary investors often place orders by feeling, while experts often place orders as planned.
Blindly placing orders leads to losses, dejected and nervous, knowing that the general trend has gone, but still taking chances, indecision, constantly relaxing the price of stop-loss plates, or having no concept and plan of stop-loss plates at all, always expecting the market price to completely reverse at the next resistance point, and the result of one loss is enough to hurt the vitality.
The psychological misunderstanding corresponding to this kind of loss-making heart is that profit makes wisdom greedy. After paying the bill, the price is still rising. Why pay the bill? The price has started to fall, let's see. When the order turns from profit to loss, we are even more reluctant to pay the order. By the time we were forced to behead, we had already suffered heavy losses.
Many people often have the experience that the loss list has been delayed by hundreds of points. When you are lucky enough to return to a loss of only twenty or thirty points, you expect to even out the commission before you go out. When you are lucky enough to level the commission, you expect to earn dozens of points before you go out ... The result of greed is often that the market price seems to have eyes, always turning around when it is just the price you want to close, and never coming back.
After losing a few times, I was afraid of the market, occasionally grasped the general trend, and the price was good, but I was nervous after 10: 08, and finally made a commission of 10: 20, and then hastily closed my position.
If you lose, you won't give in to the market, bite the bullet, and if you earn, you won't dare to win as boldly as stealing money. At this rate, it's not surprising that your capital is lost.
3. The third psychological misunderstanding: superstitious about foreign things rather than the market itself.
When entering the market, another psychological misunderstanding is superstitious about some news and rumors in the market, rather than obeying the trend of the market itself.
91A few days before February 7, the Bank of Japan intervened in the market, bought yen and threw it into dollars, and the yen strengthened to around 124. Around February 7, the Bank of Japan began to intervene in the market again, and Japanese government officials also made speeches many times, saying that both the United States and Japan agreed that the yen would continue to strengthen, so investors flocked to buy the yen, but the yen began to fall.
In this case, investors often don't look for and believe the reasons for pushing down the yen, but look forward to the Bank of Japan's self-help every day because there is a list of buying yen. As a result, almost every day, Japanese officials are saying that the yen is going to strengthen. Sometimes, Japanese banks intervene to buy yen three or four times a day, but the price has been falling all the way, with a drop of almost 1000 points. Many investors have only made one or two orders to buy Japanese yen, and they have lost six or seven thousand yuan. After cutting the order, they cursed Japan for breaking its word, but did not reflect on why the loss was so great. It is not Japanese banks that make investors lose money, but investors themselves. Because the yen was unstable because of some scandals at that time, the market chose this factor, but investors could not believe the market itself.
Of course, ordinary investors may also produce first-class players in the foreign exchange market. The key is to overcome the psychological misunderstanding. Even traders in big banks, caught in a psychological misunderstanding, will inevitably lose money and eventually be eliminated by the market.
Retail investors can actually be divided into three types. The first is a beginner who is basically unfamiliar with the foreign exchange market; The second is a person who has a little experience in the foreign exchange market and thinks he has unique experience in technical analysis and basic analysis; The third kind is people who have studied and practiced deeply for many years.
The second kind of people are the largest retail group and the most vulnerable group to losses. They are often overconfident and think that they can easily make big money from the foreign exchange market by mastering the methods, but the result is often: they fall into the trap of the market once, and only when they lose money do they find that they have not mastered the most basic winning skills in the foreign exchange market, such as "cutting the loss list quickly and leveling the profit list slowly".
There is a view that foreign exchange operation is similar to cooking, with raw materials, recipes and so on, but the dishes made are quite different. In fact, foreign exchange operation is closer to the game. Just like playing Go and chess, the same chess game is handled by different players, and the outcome is either winning or losing. The top players can only be a few people who can work hard and understand. After overcoming their weaknesses and gaining experience, some people have the opportunity to become good players in the foreign exchange market, while quite a few people will eventually lose even if they have experience.
Of course, being eliminated from the foreign exchange market does not mean that you have mental problems, but that you can't adapt to this market yet. Many talented people may be average at chess. So if your savings are hard-won and small, you don't have to use them all to prove that you will place an order. You know, winning a game of chess once in a while doesn't mean being a good chess player.
However, although the foreign exchange market is an unfathomable opponent, you can always join in the middle of the market and wait patiently until something is easier for you to grasp before entering the market. This is an excellent way to make up for your lack of skills.
It is difficult to accurately predict the trend of the foreign exchange market by relying solely on technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Because the factors affecting the price change are complex and changeable, and there are too many unpredictable events, it is difficult to solve the problem entirely by technology and possible laws. Some technical analysis techniques are practical, while others are fancy decorations. I'm afraid the trick with a really high chance of winning will not be easily revealed, because more people use it and may fail. In an efficient market like the foreign exchange market, it is impossible for everyone to make money at the same time.
Even the practical technology, in different occasions, at different times, its effectiveness may vary greatly. For example, the pursuit of breaking point was very effective more than ten years ago. Now that technical analysis techniques are so common, the phenomenon of false breakpoints in market trends has increased a lot, and the pursuit of breakpoints will not always have a chance of winning.
Instead of spending energy on some flashy technologies, it is better to understand the characteristics of foreign exchange market trends, especially the behavioral characteristics of price trends in a specific time.
Lesson 2: Risk Control in Foreign Exchange Market
The foreign exchange market is a risky market, and its risk mainly lies in too many variables that determine the foreign exchange price. Although there are countless books on the principle of foreign exchange fluctuation, some study from economic theory, some from mathematical statistics, some from geometry, and some from the perspective of psychology and behavioral science, the fluctuation of foreign exchange market is still often beyond investors' expectation. For investors and operators in the foreign exchange market, all aspects of knowledge should be possessed, and the awareness and plan of risk control are indispensable.
1, make a single plan
Businessmen have their own set of tricks in doing business. Some people follow the plan step by step, while others advance and retreat by instinct. Generally speaking, the methods of these two people can't be wrong. People who do business by instinct naturally don't need to consult books, but people who do business by plan had better sit down and read this chapter.
There are many principles and rules in the plan of doing foreign exchange business, but if it comes down to the simplest elements, it is nothing more than working out a starting point for entering and leaving any transaction, regardless of whether the transaction is profitable in the end. Once this starting point is determined, the change of price level can be attributed to rising, falling or maintaining the original state. A trading plan must make a blueprint for entering the actual trading market. Once the price level changes in any of the above three ways, traders can make a decision to sell or buy according to the plan.
Although many key factors need to be considered when making a plan, the core issue is always under what circumstances to withdraw from the entered transaction. This actually includes three exit plans. First, there must be a plan to accept the loss, and once the transaction fails, we must calmly withdraw. Second, there must be a plan to accept profits. Once the profit target is reached, you can return home satisfied. Third, there must be a plan to enable traders to quit trading when they find that the market price will not change significantly for quite some time.
The most effective procedure for withdrawing from a trade with obvious losses is to issue a "stop loss order". Of course, the premise of this is that traders clearly know how much losses they are willing to bear. If he has set an acceptable loss level before entering the transaction, the only thing he can do is to issue a "stop loss order" once the market price reaches the preset point.
For a successful transaction, how to give instructions in the transaction is not as easy as making a plan to deal with a failed transaction. There are many possibilities here.
If a trader has set a profit target before entering the transaction, it is obvious that once this target is reached, he will immediately issue a "limit order" and withdraw from the transaction. Another possibility is that traders keep profits rising until there are signs that some price changes are turning to losses. In this case, the exit plan can be set as: "sell at the stop loss point, or sell when the index X gives the selling signal;" Act in a first-come-first-served manner. "No matter which profit scheme is adopted, it is very important for traders to realize that the ultimate goal of trading is to accept profits. Unless he decides to try his luck again, he should always remember the clear line that he should accept when he is ready. Many successful traders know that money is easy to earn and difficult to protect. Traders who leave their profit plans behind will eventually realize a painful fact: "Trees can't grow in the sky. "
2. Planned factor capital
Any plan contains some elements. The first decision to be made is how much foreign exchange to use. How much money is actually spent depends on many considerations: first, the motives of traders. If you just try it or just have fun, you might as well spend less money. The second is the professionalism of the trader, and how much risk he is willing to take in order to make money. Another related factor is the trader's age, because it involves his family burden, health status, work experience and his family's attitude towards his speculative business. These are not insignificant factors. In short, the most basic point is that traders should not take the risk that the potential profit possibility is not commensurate with the importance of this profit to themselves.
To choose and evaluate transactions and engage in foreign exchange investment, we must choose profitable trading methods. Here are some factors to consider when choosing a transaction.
First, choose the transaction selection method. There are many ways to choose a transaction, such as consulting, researching or following an acquaintance. Which method is better varies from person to person. Of course, there are also some basic reference factors, for example, the method of transaction selection should have a theoretical basis. If some basic concepts contained in a certain method are unreasonable, then this method is not enough for training. Secondly, the method of trading selection should tell traders to seize market signals. Finally, this method should provide a realistic way for traders to quit trading, rather than inducing traders to do their best to engage in a certain transaction.
Another element of the quantity plan for tracking the market is to determine the number of forward foreign exchange markets to be tracked and the number of transactions in a certain period.
Time factor The expected time of a transaction is a problem worth considering.
It goes without saying that the overall goal of business is to achieve the maximum possible income equivalent to adventure. As in any other venture capital, "income" is a function of the time required, and it is not only measured by monetary income. A small profit in two or three days means that the transaction is successful. On the other hand, it will take two or three months to get this small profit. Even a profit of 100% may not be very cost-effective from the perspective of time.
Stopping trading is an important part of the plan, which has been explained before, so I won't say much here.
3. Detailed plan
Planning is so important to the success of the transaction that it is necessary to further illustrate it with a hypothetical example.
Suppose a speculator decides to enter the forward foreign exchange market. He is prepared to take out 654.38 million +0 million to speculate. He chose a brokerage company and a registered representative, opened an account and deposited the money. In order to be prudent, he decided to do the pound business first and accumulate some experience before entering other markets.
This is June+10 in 5438, and the British economic recession caused the exchange rate of the pound to fall. However, he believes that the current pound price has already reflected the post-recession level, and there is no reason for the price to fall further. He also estimated that the recession in Britain might end and speculated that the exchange rate of the pound might rise. The information in his hand also shows that the price decline has stopped, which he thinks is a signal that the price increase is about to start. So he decided to buy pounds.
Further market analysis shows that his possible profit-loss ratio is very small, and it will take a long time, so he decided to take out his money as soon as possible to engage in other transactions. He intends to lose as much as $65,438+0,000 in pounds. At this time, he is more concerned about the possible losses of his trading funds than the changes in the exchange rate of the pound. In the column of trading memorandum, he wrote that if the price does not reach the profit target point and the "stop loss" point before the closing of a certain day, then the account will be emptied and the transaction will end.
For such a simple transaction, the planning details and considerations mentioned here have exceeded what many traders can do in actual transactions. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why so many people lose money in the forward foreign exchange market.
4. Winners and losers in the foreign exchange market
Some trendsetters in the foreign exchange market get rich overnight, and some people lose everything in an instant. When winning or losing, huge sums of money change hands. People can't help asking, how many people can win and how many people will lose? Breier Stilwell, the most famous contemporary speculative record analyst, once analyzed the distribution of winning and losing in the futures market. He selected 8746 dealers for analysis. Analysis shows that 75% speculators are losers. In this statistical sample, there are 6598 losers and only 2 148 winners. The total loss of losers is nearly120,000 USD, far exceeding the total profit of winners by 2 million USD.
The dollar ratio of winning and losing is 6 1! The distribution of winning and losing also shows that for most speculators, the amount of winning and losing is not large. 84% of the winners won no more than $65,438+0,000 each during the nine-year period. Stewart's research also shows that big speculators are not more successful than small speculators. Of course, as far as the final result is concerned, it remains to be proved whether the conclusion has universal significance because the sample is too small.
Lesson Three: The Experience of a Master
Compared with the stock and futures markets, the history of the foreign exchange market is still very short, but in recent years, a number of trading experts have emerged. In terms of investment theory and experience, they may be slightly inferior to stock market veterans, but they make more money. Their annual income is in the billions. The foreign exchange experts introduced in this paper include the head of Huilong Foreign Exchange Department. The owner and sole proprietor of a large fund. Naturally, they are little known at home and are not well known outside the American financial community. But in the foreign exchange and futures industries, as long as these people are mentioned, people immediately respect them. This is not because these people are outstanding in appearance, but because of their genius and diligence, they have made a lot of wealth from the market, and many investors want to make it, and it seems that they can make it.