1 affected by the epidemic. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, global liquidity has increased, the economies of various countries have been affected, global risk aversion has increased rapidly, and gold prices have risen rapidly in the short term. By August 2020, the price of gold once approached the 2 100 mark. Only later, with the easing of the global epidemic, the price of gold began to fall slowly.
The second factor is influenced by global liquidity. Since March 2020, all countries in the world have started loose monetary policies, especially the countries dominated by the United States have started unrestricted QE, which has released a lot of liquidity to the market, directly leading to the rapid rise of the prices of bulk commodities and some precious metals.
The third factor is the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Since February 2022, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global risk aversion has been unprecedentedly high, which is also an important driving force to raise the price of gold in the short term. In the future, these three factors are still the key factors affecting the trend of gold prices. In the context of the gradual easing of the global epidemic and the formal entry of the global interest rate hike cycle, the price of gold will fall accordingly. Especially in the context of the continuous sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the continued strength of the US dollar will attract more funds to invest in the US dollar, so the prices of other precious metals and commodities, including gold, will also fall accordingly. However, the current trend of gold price depends not only on the interest rate increase of various countries, but also on the trend of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some countries in Europe and America kicked Russia out of the Swift system, resulting in a large number of Russian foreign trade that could not be settled in US dollars. It is with its huge gold reserves that Russia has passed this barrier, making countries more aware of the disadvantages of the US dollar. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not obviously eased in the future, it is not excluded that countries will increase their holdings of gold when the price of gold drops slightly to ensure the security of a country's financial system. Therefore, the future international demand for gold.
In the context of international gold demand, even if the Fed raises interest rates, the impact on gold prices will not be so great. Therefore, in the short term, at least in the next six months, the price of gold may still fluctuate between 1.700 USD and 1.900 USD, which means that it is obviously not a reasonable choice to start with gold in this period. However, I believe that gold cannot be at a high level forever. If the global economy starts to recover one day in the future and geopolitical conflicts are further alleviated, the price of gold will naturally fall back, but it is hard to say whether the price of gold can fall back to around $65,438+0,000.