In the past decade, China's economic aggregate has increased by 200%, and China's economic aggregate has surpassed Japanese by 20 1 1, ranking second in the world. Judging from the growth of per capita income, in recent years, the growth rate of per capita income in urban and rural areas is different, but they are all above 10%, basically between 12%- 17%. China is rising peacefully. In the next five to ten years, as China is still in the middle stage of industrialization, there will be more room for growth in urbanization and household consumption, and the economic development will maintain a relatively high growth rate of about 7.5% to 7.8%.
In the next decade, China's economy will maintain a relatively high growth rate, showing a steady growth trend, and will not be subject to ups and downs. China's economic aggregate will more than double, its value will be greater, its national strength will be stronger, its people's living standard will be richer and its disposable income will be more. The political system will be more optimized and the political transparency will be higher. The cultural industry will get greater development, many distinctive cultural industry enterprises will emerge, the cultural life of the masses will be richer and more diverse, the enthusiasm of the masses to participate in mass culture will be stronger, and the enthusiasm of the masses to participate in mass cultural activities will be even higher.
The current economic operation may enter a new adjustment cycle, and the pressure in all aspects is relatively high. The adjustment of industrial structure and the elimination of backward production capacity will form a braking effect. At present, there are some signs of slowing down and stabilizing the industrial growth rate, but the foundation is still fragile, and some uncertain factors will bring new shocks, which cannot be taken lightly.
At present, steel, coal, cement, glass and textiles have overcapacity, extensive production methods and high energy consumption. Among them, the steel price has dropped by 2 1 month. At the same time, with the centralized release of new production capacity and the decline of market demand in the early stage, product prices have continued to decline, the market's downward expectations for prices have increased, the production and operation difficulties of enterprises have also increased, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased.
Judging from the development environment at home and abroad, the current economic situation facing China is more complicated and variable than when the international financial crisis broke out in 2008. The interweaving of shrinking external demand and slowing domestic demand growth has increased the downward pressure on the industrial economy.
From the international environment, the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to emerge. The recovery of the world economy is full of twists and turns, the growth rate is slowing down, and the downward pressure and potential risks are increasing. It may take a long time for the world economy to get out of the trough completely, and the prospect of recovery is not optimistic, which will make the external environment facing China's industrial development more severe, but the economic situation has improved in recent months. However, some experts predict that the average growth rate of the world economy will reach 4.5% in 20 14, which gives people a glimmer of light.
Domestically, the growth rate of export, investment, consumer demand and output is generally lower than market expectations. Supply and demand interact, and insufficient effective demand may have become the main contradiction in economic operation. Although China has adopted many policies to expand domestic demand, the pulling effect of domestic demand has been released to a certain extent, but due to the unreasonable economic structure and financial market risks accumulated in the early stage of domestic economic growth, the pulling effect of domestic demand is not outstanding, and the endogenous growth momentum is still insufficient.
20 1 1 since the second half of the year, the growth rate of industrial economy has dropped again, which is the result of the combined action of long-term and short-term factors, and it is also the adjustment process that China's industrial economy must face after long-term growth. In view of the new situation and changes in the current economic operation, we should put steady growth in a more important position, focus on improving the economic operation environment, effectively alleviate the difficulties of enterprises, strive to overcome the impact of economic downturn, and prevent further decline in industrial growth.
In 20 13, due to the systematic measures of "pressing production capacity, promoting consumption, grasping transformation, expanding exports and stabilizing growth", the economic growth rate of the whole year was 7.7%. The first quarter of 20 14 started well and the situation of national economic construction was stable. The economic growth rate was 7.4%, the total economic output reached 12.8 trillion yuan, and the price index rose by only 2.3%, which was still within people's expectations.
China is in the process of urbanization. First of all, we will try several pilot projects, and then promote them after we have mastered the preliminary experience. To promote the implementation, it is necessary to plan rationally, prevent the living facilities from matching and unreasonable layout, avoid indiscriminate felling of trees, random withdrawal of villages and points, and random demolition, and avoid pushing mountains and filling lakes.
At present, as a developing country, China has entered an aging society ahead of schedule, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, and the labor force population is about to decline from the peak. Previously, some manufacturing areas have already experienced a situation of tight labor force population. On the one hand, it is difficult for enterprises to retain skilled employees, and on the other hand, there is an extreme shortage of high-end technical talents, which makes China's manufacturing industry face a difficult choice.
In 20 13, the economic growth rate of China was 7.7%, and the GDP in the same year was 56 trillion yuan. In 20 13 years, China's per capita disposable income1831yuan, up 8. 1% year-on-year. Residents' income and GDP growth basically kept pace, but the per capita income gap between urban and rural areas, between cities and between villages was still very large. In addition, in the same year, China's fiscal revenue was 654.38+0.26 billion yuan, with a per capita income of nearly 10,000 yuan. Last year, China's per capita GDP was only $6,700, and it has entered an aging society. Comparatively speaking, the per capita GDP of developed countries reaches 1 10,000 yuan before entering an aging society. China is "getting old before getting rich".
Entering an aging society prematurely will inevitably have a certain impact on China's economic construction. However, under the general trend of economic globalization, China's manufacturing industry is accelerating the transformation from labor-intensive industries to technology-intensive industries, so as to actively face the impact of advanced foreign manufacturing industries. The symbolic thing during this period is that industrial robots will be applied on a large scale.
At present, the total economic output of China accounts for 1 1.3% of the global GDP. At the beginning of 20 14, China became the largest import and export trading country for the first time. The purchasing managers' index has been above 50.0 for five consecutive months, from negative to positive, and the economic recovery is obvious. In 20 14, due to the adjustment of industrial structure, the elimination of backward production capacity and the reduction of excess production capacity, the newly cultivated emerging production capacity is still in the "empty window period", but the economic construction will maintain a relatively stable growth, and the economic growth rate can only reach about 7.5%. By then, the gross national product will reach 6.2 trillion yuan.
In addition, last year, there were nearly 1 100 million outbound tourists in China, and the total amount of consumption abroad reached 654.38+002 billion US dollars, ranking first in the world in terms of situation and purchasing power. By the end of March, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was US$ 3.95 trillion, ranking first in the world, accounting for a quarter of the world's total foreign reserves. In this regard, we can continue to be optimistic in the future.
House prices are at a high level after rising continuously, and stagflation weakened at the beginning of the year, with major cities falling by 10%. At the same time, the sales volume has shrunk and the vacancy rate of finished houses has increased. However, there was no cliff-like plunge. At the beginning of the year, the property market in Hangzhou lagged behind. At present, the trend of "retreating from the DPRK" is spreading to third-and fourth-tier cities.
With the rapid promotion of China's national strength, China's political influence in the international community is also increasing, and its international status is increasing. The international community fully respects, adapts to and accepts China's role as a great power in international affairs.
From 20 10 to 2020, China's economic aggregate will double, and it will begin to compete with the United States. China, which has got rid of a big agricultural country, is moving towards an industrial country and is catching up with the world's largest country. China is rising peacefully, its national strength is constantly increasing, and it is on the broad road to a well-off society. In the decade from 20 10, China's economic aggregate will double again, and the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way will be achieved by the end of the year. However, at this stage, the social income level of Chinese citizens is very different, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. By 2020, China's economic aggregate will be equal to that of the United States, and around 2030, China's economic aggregate will surpass that of the United States and become the largest economy. By 2049, when New China was founded in 100, it will surpass the United States in an all-round way. However, the comprehensive national strength and national strength of the United States,