On July 2, 2005, after the RMB exchange rate reform was launched, the euro entered a two-year appreciation cycle after a short depreciation. By this year 1 quarter, the appreciation of the euro has reached its peak. On March 17, the central parity of RMB against Euro was 1 Euro against RMB1.66.
Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, the European economy is facing a serious recession. Since August this year, the depreciation of the euro against the RMB has accelerated. On August 4th, 1 Euro against RMB was 10.6626 yuan, but it fell to 9.9667 yuan on September 2nd, falling below the mark of 10 yuan, and fell to 8.90 18 yesterday. In the past two months, the euro has depreciated against RMB 12.48%. If calculated from the highest point 17 in March this year, the cumulative decline in more than seven months has exceeded 20%.
In addition to the euro, this year, the pound and the Australian dollar have also fallen unilaterally against the RMB. Last year 1 on October 9th, the exchange rate of British pound against RMB reached1at the highest, but it fell to 1 1 yesterday. 18686.886686868667
predict
It is difficult for the euro and pound to rebound in the short term.
What is the future trend of the euro after the sharp decline?
"We believe that the euro will be in a weak position for at least half a year in the future." Yang Yijun, chief analyst of Wilson, said yesterday that the market is more worried about the economic slowdown in Europe than in the United States. Facing the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, as a big euro zone, its effective economic adjustment mechanism is far less rapid and effective than that of the United States.
It is understood that European governments and decision-making authorities announced comprehensive measures to fight the financial crisis last week after the introduction of the bank capital injection plan in Britain, but the market was quite dissatisfied with the slow response of European countries. "Investors predict that the euro zone will cut interest rates to cope with the economic slowdown, and at the same time have enough confidence in the US economic stimulus plan, which has led to the continued high demand for the US dollar and the US dollar index hitting a new high." Fang Jing, an analyst at Gaosaier Research Center, said.
Gao Jing said that although technically the euro is in a downward trend and the dollar is bullish, investors should know that the fundamentals of the US economy are not good either. The recent strength of the dollar is not based on long-term optimism about the US economy. Once the crisis in non-American areas is alleviated, the rise of the dollar will come to an end.
affect
Euro wealth management products or difficult to guarantee the principal
The continuous appreciation of the euro makes the euro wealth management products a hot commodity in the market. However, now many euro wealth management products will face the risk of principal loss. According to a six-month euro wealth management product issued by a bank, the starting date of the product's income is August 1 1, and the highest expected annual rate of return is 6.9%. If the product achieves the highest expected annual rate of return of 6.9% after six months, the actual income after six months is 3.45%. However, since August 22nd, the euro has fallen by 65,438+against the RMB. In addition to the euro, the Australian dollar wealth management product recently issued by a foreign bank also broke the news of principal loss.
"The recent trend of the foreign exchange market is unknown. Individual investors had better stay away from foreign exchange products. Even if the current US dollar remains strong, its wealth management products should try not to participate, so as not to cause losses to investors. " A financial planner at CITIC Bank said.
Trend of Euro-RMB Exchange Rate
10.064 1
July 2, 20051
10.064 1
8.90 15
22 June 2008 10
8.90 15
related news
The dollar and yen have strengthened recently.
According to Bao Jing news statistics, since the beginning of 10, the USD/EUR has risen by about 5%, and the increase in the last quarter exceeded 10%. The US dollar index rose by 3.8% and 9.6% respectively in these two periods. The dollar is relatively strong.
It is precisely because of the global economic panic that the United States has been holding the US dollar as the world currency for its own benefit, in addition to panic selling stocks, commodities and various securities. No matter before or during the storm, US Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars need to be supported by the strength of the US dollar.
Due to Japan's low interest rate policy, the yen has always been the main force of international carry trade and assumed the role of financing currency. However, the panic caused by the global economic crisis has obviously curbed this part of demand, and the liquidation of arbitrage traders has led to the recent high operation of the yen near 100.
"Before the end of the global economic crisis, the US dollar can continue to support steadily, but the risk of non-US currencies has intensified." Li Jun, general manager of FX 168 Research Department, said. (Shanghai Stock Exchange)
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