After the outbreak of the epidemic last year, the service industry and manufacturing industry in the United States were completely affected. The United States uses the dollar advantage to release water around the world. The over-issuance of the US dollar has aggravated the domestic inflation phenomenon in the United States, and because of the settlement currency attribute of the US dollar, the world has shared the pressure of inflation in the United States. This behavior of the United States is very shameful! Next, I will start with the economic situation of several countries with super serious inflation, analyze and interpret the global inflation impact behind the large amount of dollars, and see how we deal with the inflation problem. Let's unveil the inflation crisis!
What are the causes of inflation? Why do countries think this phenomenon is bad, and why is it sometimes unavoidable? Simply put, inflation means that the price level keeps rising in a certain period of time. Why is the price going up? It is caused by the large amount of money in circulation and the small amount of goods in circulation. For example, there are 10 yuan and five apples in circulation at present. In general, the market price of 1 Apple is 2 yuan. However, due to the monetary policy of our government, the amount of money in circulation reached 20 yuan, but there were still five apples, so the market price of 1 apple became 4 yuan, and the price doubled.
Inflation is terrible because it makes people's money worthless. For example, if the annual inflation rate of a country is 10% for various reasons, the purchasing power of 100000 yuan at the beginning of the year will be only 90000 yuan by the end of the year, which is 100000 yuan less, but this10 yuan is the hard-earned money of the people.
Since everyone knows the harm of inflation, why can't it be avoided? The reasons mainly include two points: first, with the advancement of globalization, a country's monetary policy cannot be formulated only in light of its own needs, but also needs to consider the international financial environment. For example, the recent US dollar overshoot, as long as the United States uses US dollars to buy things in your country, then this country needs to issue equivalent currency to offset it, and the issued equivalent currency will flow to the domestic market. If domestic production capacity can't keep up, it will lead to excessive currency and serious inflation problem; Second, the Bank of China has implemented a loose monetary policy, but due to the decline in production capacity, the problem of inflation has emerged.
Let's see which countries are seriously harmed by inflation!
When it comes to inflation, many people think of Venezuela. 202 1, the minimum wage in Venezuela is 7 million. Are you surprised and thinking that the people in this country are so rich? Don't worry, I'm not talking about 7 million RMB, but the national currency of Venezuela, Bolivarian. So how much is 7 million bolivar equivalent to RMB? That is, more than ten dollars! What? The minimum wage is only a dozen dollars. Did I hear you right? You heard me right, that's it. The reason for this phenomenon is inflation.
When you are still in distress, in fact, the inflation phenomenon in Venezuela is relatively light. Look at the inflation problem in Hungary, you will be scared to death. Hungary has a small land area, that is, 93,000 square kilometers, which is not as big as Jiangsu Province. /kloc-a country with a population of more than 0/0,000, it is a strange phenomenon that it costs hundreds of millions of yuan to buy an onion. Why is this happening? That has to start from the first world war.
Hungary declared its independence after World War I, and the newly independent Hungary abolished the original currency and could happily use the newly issued Hungary. After World War I, Hungary had to cede territory for compensation because of its defeat, resulting in more than 70% of its territory being divided up by neighboring countries. At that time, the population was only 6 million, less than one-third of the resident population in Shanghai today. Under the economic pressure, the newly independent Hungarian government can only stimulate the economy by printing money. As we all know, government printing money can really create the illusion of economic prosperity in a short period of time. After all, ordinary people will consume when they have money, and factories will produce because of consumption. However, in the long run, if domestic production capacity cannot be improved, then the domestic currency is bound to depreciate.
Sure enough, it didn't take long for the Hungarian currency to depreciate rapidly. At the time of 1924, 1 USD can be exchanged for 7,000 kroner, whereas before World War I, 1 USD can only be exchanged for several kroner. Hungarian nationals will probably lose money if they keep their money in the bank. Looking at this inflation rate, Hungary is extremely anxious. Fortunately, Hungary joined the League of Nations and got loans from some other countries, which made the economy a little more stable. At this time, under the guidance of other countries, the Hungarian government reissued a new currency, Pongo, and directly linked the Pongo to gold, which can further promote the stability of the currency. In addition, with the help of neighboring big brothers Britain and the United States, Hungary's precarious monetary system has returned to the right track.
But things change. 1929 When the global financial crisis broke out, all countries recovered Hungary's loans. Because the world food commodity prices plummeted, which seriously affected Hungary's own food exports. At this time, Hungary can't sell anything and has no money to buy things. The domestic situation is very bad. However, it never rains alone, and the house leaks every night! World War II broke out! Because of the terrain, Hungary became the main battlefield of the Soviet Union and Germany. Tell me how bad it is. Finally, 90% of Hungary's industrial infrastructure was destroyed, and more than 50% of its industrial production capacity was gone. There were not many people who made money, but now they are all ruined. The Hungarian government and citizens were speechless and tearful. So, Pongo don't stay up! As soon as the Hungarian government struck the table, the domestic economy was sluggish and printed money crazily to promote its economic development! Therefore, the depreciation rate of Pongo is beyond imagination. In less than 20 years, Hungary began to print and distribute 654.38 billion banknotes, and later printed 654.38 billion banknotes. But what are the meanings of these quantities? It costs 100 million to buy an egg. What's the use of giving you tens of billions?
1945, the total Hungarian currency in circulation was only 25 billion Pongo. After half a year, the total amount of Hungarian currency in circulation exceeded 1.6 trillion Pongo, then exceeded 60 trillion in less than half a year, and then reached 470 trillion in half a year! ! Yes, look carefully, it's trillions. In this way, Venezuela's inflation is a cloud, dear! Hungary is the king of inflation!
Of course, inflation in Hungary has put great pressure on its economy. At that time, the Hungarian government was on the verge of bankruptcy and was sinking in the sea of the collapse of the monetary system! So, inflation is like a tiger, it kills me!
In the past two years, affected by the epidemic, global inflation has begun to stir again! The initiator of inflation is the United States. Let's see what is going on.
The recent unilateralism pursued by the United States in national interests determines that the United States has become a cancer that harms the whole world. In 2020, a global epidemic broke out. When the United States and other western countries thought they would not be infected, the global epidemic raged. However, due to the poor control of the Trump administration in the United States, the American epidemic is very serious! Up to now, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 has exceeded 40 million, with 660,000 deaths! But in this way, the US federal government still protected the stock market. Why? Because the economic support of the United States is capital, the lack of real economy makes it easy for the United States to make money, but it is not easy to do things!
Therefore, in the face of the economic impact of the epidemic on the United States, the Federal Reserve began to frantically print and distribute US dollars, exceeding US$ 6 trillion. As we all know, the reason for inflation is that the domestic currency is oversold, so why does the United States dare to oversold so much money? Aren't you afraid of the depreciation of the dollar and the stagnation of the domestic economy? The United States is not afraid, because the US dollar is the world settlement currency, and currencies that exceed the US dollar are eventually diluted by countries all over the world. To put it simply, all countries in the world recognize the dollar, and the United States takes extra money to buy things in these countries, and people want to sell them! This is equivalent to the United States buying a bunch of goods from other countries with a piece of paper stacked on top of each other, but actually paying nothing.
These countries that do business with America are miserable. For example, if you are a businessman in China, the United States bought your goods with $65,438+million. You took100000 dollars to the bank to exchange RMB for domestic transactions, and the bank gave you more than 640000 RMB. And this 65438+ million bank card is kept by myself. In this process, 640,000 RMB will circulate in the market, and 654.38 million+USD will enter the bank. However, at this time, the United States is still issuing dollars. The original $654.38+million has only the purchasing power of $90,000 due to inflation, which is equivalent to doing business with the United States. Doing nothing will lose 10%! If the profit is thin, doing business with the United States may not necessarily make money, but may also lose money.
As a result, many countries can only implement tight monetary policies because of the monetary hegemony of the United States, which is not conducive to the development of their own economies. So many countries began to resist the hegemony of the United States and the dollar and embarked on the road of selling American debt and dollarization. According to official data, as of July 3 1, US debt reached 28.5 trillion. According to the annual GDP data of the United States, it takes one-third of the income to pay interest. It can be seen that the American economy is also very difficult. If the whole world unites against the United States, then the dollar's world settlement currency attribute will disappear, and the dollar can't buy goods from other countries, but can only circulate in its own country. If the infrastructure and manufacturing in the United States can't keep up, it will be serious.
This is the last word, let's wait and see. Let's go back to China and see how we should deal with the impact of the US dollar on China's economy under the international background of such a serious outflow of US dollars.
Judging from China's current relevant policies, except the recent RRR interest rate cut policy, there is no currency overshoot in the United States. There are two reasons for not doing so:
First, our US dollar foreign exchange reserves are relatively high.
At present, China is the second largest debtor country in the United States, holding more than $1 trillion in American debt. So when the United States shamelessly took trillions of dollars to buy things in China, China sold it to the United States out of humanitarianism. Then someone said, in this way, with the inflation of the dollar and the further depreciation of the dollar, won't we lose money? I tell you, because we have a high dollar reserve, we can offset inflation by importing American coal and other materials. As long as the problem of jet lag is solved, inflation can flow back to the United States.
Second, we have improved the internal circulation system of the economy.
Why do other countries overspend their own currencies to offset the impact of dollar inflation? That's because they have to deal with the United States, and many materials need to be imported from the United States. At present, in addition to high-end technologies such as chips, other materials can basically achieve self-sufficiency. Therefore, China's domestic economic circulation system is relatively sound, which can effectively cope with the inflation in the United States.
Although we don't need to overspend our currency like other countries to offset the impact of dollar inflation. However, we need to further guard against the issue of large-scale dollar issuance. After all, we are already the second largest economy in the world and are inextricably linked with world trade. So how should we deal with the problem of dollar flooding? Can the $100 water release event provide us with opportunities for development? Let's have a look.
I have already said two things above about how to deal with the problem of big US dollar release. The first is that US dollar reserves can be used to offset the impact of US dollar inflation, and the second is to further improve the internal circulation system of the economy to promote the stability of the domestic financial system. But these two can only be regarded as defensive strategies. In order to further cope with various monetary policies in the United States, we have made all-round preparations. After all, the United States has indeed been full of malice towards us in recent years.
So what specific preparations have we made?
First, develop high-end manufacturing industry with the strength of the whole country.
Judging from the technology blockade between Huawei and ZTE, the United States has completely blocked our technology. This time, the large amount of dollars has also made us see the face of the United States clearly. In order to further stabilize the domestic economy and prevent the economic development from being frustrated by the high-end manufacturing industry, our country is striving to develop the high-end manufacturing industry, and we will definitely make a breakthrough in the chip field in the future! We will definitely be able to jump out of the American industrial chain and re-establish a global industrial chain belonging to China, thus further consolidating China's international status and domestic economic situation.
Second, we should vigorously develop RMB digital currency.
Now the reason why the United States can harvest global assets through dollars is because of the hegemony of dollars. The establishment of the hegemonic position of the dollar was not promoted in a short time, and the relevant systems surrounding the hegemony of the dollar have been very mature. If it is arbitrarily dollarized, it will inevitably lead to problems in its own economic and trade exchanges. Therefore, vigorously developing RMB digital currency can avoid the control of the US dollar, thus realizing a global industrial chain with RMB as the settlement currency, thus stabilizing the domestic economy and reducing the impact of the US dollar on the global economy.
Overissuing money to promote the domestic economy is an act of quenching thirst by drinking poison. Temporary difficulties can be solved in the short term, but in the long run, they will be trapped and trapped. Taking history as a mirror, we can know the rise and fall. Through the inflation phenomenon in Venezuela and Hungary, we can draw a conclusion that the country must improve its production capacity to ensure the stability of its economy. Only in this way can we effectively avoid risks. At present, the United States is a spent force, clamoring with its original financial resources, and still doing shameful things with those shameless means. The problem of the United States releasing its own inflation to the world will inevitably be strongly resisted by people all over the world. Today's China is extraordinary. We are indifferent to the hooliganism of the United States, but we are unable to do so.
I think in the near future, the hegemonic position of the United States will be completely disintegrated because of its own demise. China will become the world's largest economy with an open attitude and from the perspective of global destiny, and then gradually become the world's largest country. There's still a long way to go, Xiu Yuan. Although the road to realization is blocked, determined China people will definitely make a breakthrough. # Inflation # # Dollar #