1. Analysis of the Macroeconomic Situation in 1997

Since 1997, the macroeconomic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", moderately tightening the aggregate amount, and increasing structural adjustment efforts

>

Against the background of macroeconomic policies, my country’s macroeconomy continues to maintain a good operating momentum. The development of the national economy has achieved

the expected macro-control goals of high economic growth and low price increases.

1. Economic development maintains steady growth and social supply has increased significantly. With the steady growth of social demand

and the deepening of economic reform, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the second half of the year will be slightly faster than that in the first half of the year, and the GDP for the whole year will be It is expected to grow by about 9.7%, which is equivalent to the previous year. It basically reflects the economic policy of seeking stability while making progress set by the central government at the beginning of the year.

In terms of industries, it is expected that the annual grain output will be basically the same as in 1996 or slightly decrease, which will affect the growth of agricultural output value to a certain extent.

However, due to the increase in the sown area of ??cash crops and the rapid development of non-planting agricultural industries, agricultural production is still expected to maintain steady growth in 1997, and the agricultural value is expected to increase at The growth rate is about 4.2%, which is lower than last year. Industrial production continues to maintain a steady development trend this year. From January to September, the added value of industries at and above township level across the country was 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. Looking ahead

to the industrial production situation throughout the year, with the improvement of corporate economic benefits, the steady improvement of production and sales ratios and the recovery of investment, coupled with the relatively loose financial environment in the following months, The growth rate of industrial production is expected to be stable and rising. However, as my country's economy as a whole has transformed from a seller's market to a buyer's market, the market competition is fierce and large consumption hotspots are difficult to achieve. appeared, and the export growth rate will gradually slow down. The export delivery value of industrial sales output in August increased by 13.6%, which was 1.7 percentage points lower than the cumulative decrease from January to August, which has shown this trend. Therefore, the growth of industrial added value throughout the year will remain stable without major ups and downs, and the growth rate is expected to be around 12.4%. The construction industry will maintain a steady growth trend in 1997, with an estimated growth rate of around 8.3%. The secondary industry is expected to grow by about 12%

. In the first half of the year, driven by the rapid growth of the financial, insurance and information industries, the growth rate of the tertiary industry was higher than that of the same period last year. In the second half of the year, various regions will vigorously carry out re-employment projects, and laid-off workers and rural surplus labor will

be more involved in the business and service industries. Therefore, the development of the tertiary industry will continue to maintain the momentum of the first half of the year.< /p>

The annual growth rate is around 9%.

2. Social demand maintains moderate growth, and net export demand has an enhanced role in stimulating the economy. From January to August 1997, fixed asset investment increased by 10.8% year-on-year, which was a significant decrease compared with the growth rate in the same period last year. Due to changes in the market environment, the investment enthusiasm of some companies has declined compared to the past due to inaccurate investment direction choices, and the growth rate of foreign direct investment will not be very high. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in 1997 will not be too high, and is estimated to be below 16%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,721.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. After deducting price factors, the actual growth was 12%. my country's consumer goods market will continue to be tepid in the next few months.

It is expected that the actual growth rate for the whole year will be around 12%. Affected by price factors, the nominal growth rate will be higher than

There was a large decline last year, roughly around 14.1%. From January to August this year, my country's foreign trade exports were US$112.37 billion, an increase of 24.1%, imports were US$86.89 billion, an increase of 1.5%, and the trade surplus was US$25.5 billion. In the first eight months

The reason for this situation in import and export has a lot to do with last year's base number. In the following months, with the accelerated pace of structural adjustment and the gradual recovery of investment demand, coupled with the significant reduction in import and export commodity tariffs starting from October 1, imports are expected to The growth rate will increase steadily, and the annual growth rate is estimated to be around 7%. Export growth is showing a steady downward trend, and the annual export growth is estimated to be around 17%. The trade import and export surplus reached approximately US$28.3 billion, a significant increase compared with last year. Net export demand has become an important force driving economic growth this year.

3. The price increase is hovering at a low level. It is expected that the increase in retail prices of social commodities can be controlled within 2% throughout the year.

The increase in consumer prices is expected to be controlled at around 4%. Judging from the current situation, the price situation in the next few months is relatively optimistic, and the possibility of a sharp rebound is basically non-existent. The first reason is the balance between market supply and demand; the second reason is that the price hike factor in 1996 has weakened; the third reason is that residents’ consumption psychology is stable and there is no psychological expectation of rising prices; the fourth reason is that food prices

Production has achieved bumper harvests for several consecutive years, which has had a positive impact on price stability.

4. The fiscal balance and expenditure are in good condition and the financial situation is relatively stable. From January to August, fiscal revenue increased by 27.3%,

fiscal expenditure increased by 19.2%, and fiscal revenue and expenditure saved 39.2 billion yuan. The reason why fiscal revenue can have a relatively high growth rate is mainly due to the relatively high growth rate of stamp duty and the considerable growth of personal income tax.

With the gradual improvement of corporate economic benefits, the growth of fiscal revenue this year will continue to maintain a high growth momentum after last year's growth rate was higher than GDP.

Fiscal revenue accounts for The proportion of GDP continues to increase. It is expected that fiscal expenditure will grow by about 15% throughout the year.

Judging from the current situation, the financial situation is basically normal. Preliminary estimates indicate that the annual M0 growth rate will be around 14.8%, and currency issuance will be around 130 billion yuan. With the stricter access to capital in the stock market, the proportion of corporate fixed deposits will undergo certain changes. It is initially expected that M1 will grow by about 18.5% throughout the year. Since the issuance of government bonds in the second half of the year will be less than that in the first half of the year, this will be conducive to the recovery of residents' savings. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in residents' savings deposits by the end of the year will be around 20%,

thus driving M2 growth has picked up and is expected to reach around 19.2% for the whole year.

2. The environment and influencing factors facing my country's economic growth in 1998

1. International environment: In 1997, world economic growth accelerated, and the global GDP growth rate will be 2.9% from 1996.

Increased to 3.1%. In 1998, world economic growth will still rise moderately. According to the 1997 autumn forecast of the LINK Center, the global GDP growth rate in 1998 will increase from 3.1% in 1997 to 3.2%. Among them, the economic growth of the United States

is stable and slightly declining, but the economic growth of the European Union and Japan is accelerating, rising from 2.4% and 1.2% in 1997 to 2.6% and 1.7% respectively. , Southeast Asia continues to maintain rapid growth momentum, and is expected to grow by 6.7% in 1998.

At the same time, global trade volume growth remains stable and is expected to grow by 7.6% in 1998. The acceleration of world economic growth will create a good external environment for my country's economic growth.

2. Domestic environment: First of all, the convening of the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which has extremely far-reaching significance, has made a cross-century strategy for my country's economic system reform and economic development. The deployment is of great guiding significance for establishing a relatively complete socialist market economic system and maintaining sustained and rapid development of the national economy. The pace of state-owned enterprise reform will accelerate in 2098. At the same time, the non-public economy, an important part of the socialist market economy, will also develop further. Secondly, as the pace of direct financing accelerates, the financial environment for enterprises will be improved to a certain extent. At the same time, as the proportion of direct financing increases, the pressure on bank loans is reduced accordingly, which will create conditions for banks to choose loan directions and projects, thereby improving the efficiency of fund allocation. Third, as the pace of asset reorganization accelerates and the proportion of joint-stock systems increases, funds are further concentrated in enterprises and projects with higher benefits. In this way, due to the optimization of resource allocation, equal funds can be elements have a greater effect. Fourth, after Hong Kong returns to China, there will be more opportunities for cooperation between the Mainland and Hong Kong, and more Chinese capital will enter the Mainland to participate in economic construction. Fifth, some of the factors that created bottlenecks and constraints on economic development in the past few years have been basically resolved. After

the construction during the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period, power generation capacity, transportation and communication capabilities have been greatly improved. It is estimated that in 1998

These aspects will not restrict economic development. Sixth, the agricultural production situation has been very good in the past two years, creating a good development background for 1998.

3. Influencing factors: First, price pressure is small. Even if the investment scale is appropriately expanded, it will not cause prices to rise significantly, thus making more room for the growth of investment demand. Large space. Second, by the end of August 1997, my country's foreign exchange reserves had reached 130 billion U.S. dollars. It was no longer necessary to increase foreign exchange reserves. In this way, certain foreign exchange reserves could be used to import goods. Some advanced equipment with high technical level can adjust the product structure more quickly and promote the upgrading of product structure

. Third, the price increase has remained at a low level, creating conditions for economic adjustment using interest rates as an economic lever. Although the price increase rebounded to a certain extent in 1998, the recovery was limited. In this way, the level and structure of interest rates can be fine-tuned at the appropriate time to reduce the interest burden of enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises.

< p> Stimulate economic development, enable enterprises and banks to develop in a coordinated manner and promote each other. Fourth, the state decided to reduce the tariff rate on imported and exported goods from October 1, 1997, by 26%. The substantial reduction in tariffs will surely

attract more foreign investment that is in line with my country's industrial policy orientation, increase the introduction of foreign investment and technology, and thus

promote economic development.

Of course, economic development also faced some constraints in 1998: The main one is that employment pressure is still very high

This poses certain constraints on changing the economic growth mode and improving economic quality. . At present, my country's economic growth has changed from mainly pursuing "quantity" in the past to mainly pursuing "quality", and the connotation of economic growth has undergone great changes.

However, since the increase in laid-off workers and employed people has a great impact on the improvement of residents' living standards and social stability, we must take into account both the quality and quantity of economic growth during economic development.

Amount. Second, several consecutive years of trade surplus and exchange rate appreciation have made it more difficult to continue to expand exports in 1998.

At the same time, the depreciation of the currencies of Southeast Asian countries will also weaken the competition of my country's export commodities to a certain extent

Power. Therefore, the growth rate of trade surplus will drop significantly, and the driving effect of external demand on the economy will weaken. Third, new consumption hotspots are still in the stage of support and cultivation, and consumption demand is growing steadily. Fourth, it is still difficult to fundamentally reverse the contradiction between low business operation level and low efficiency.

3. Forecast of the development trend of the national economy in 1998

1. The national economy will continue to maintain steady growth

Due to the two main obstacles that inhibited economic growth in the past few years ----Inflationary pressure and bottlenecks in basic industries

have been significantly alleviated. At the same time, with the convening of the 15th National Congress, joint-stock reform will be further advanced

The development of the non-state-owned economy will also continue to play an important role, and its economic growth is expected to further increase.

It is expected that under the central government's policy of moderately tightening the total amount, intensifying structural adjustment, and seeking progress while maintaining stability, In 1998

economic growth will still maintain a high rate of growth, with actual GDP growth expected to be around 10%. Among them, with the acceleration of agricultural industrialization, the proportion of high-value products in the primary industry has increased. Taking grain production into consideration, it is expected that in 1998, The growth rate of the primary industry will be higher than that in 1997, with an increase rate of approximately 4.3%.

The tertiary industry With the further advancement of urban re-employment projects, the rapid development of individual commercial enterprises, and the increasing attention paid by governments at all levels to the tertiary industry, it is estimated that in 1998 The growth rate of the tertiary industry will continue to increase, with the growth rate expected to be around 9.3%. Industrial production maintains a steady growth trend under the background of the buyer's market, with an expected growth rate of around 12.5%. The construction industry is affected by the real estate market, so the growth rate cannot be too high, with an expected growth rate of around 8.5%< /p>

Right.

2. The growth of fixed asset investment has increased slightly

Since the 1990s, fixed asset investment has been the dominant demand force driving economic growth. In view of the current difficulties in production and operation of enterprises and insufficient operating rates, there are very strong calls for increasing investment in fixed assets. At the same time, due to institutional factors, the investment of local governments The impulse has always been strong. In order to ensure the sustained and rapid development of

the national economy, it is necessary and possible for fixed asset investment to maintain a relatively high growth rate. However,

because enterprises, as the main investors, have less investment willingness than before. The ratio has changed significantly, so the growth rate of fixed asset investment will not be too high. It is initially estimated that the growth rate will be around 17.5%, and the investment structure is expected to further improve.

3. Steady growth in consumption

According to the results of a consumer survey in the five major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou and Wuhan, in 1997

Resident consumption was no Hot spots are showing, and it will still be difficult to perform in the coming period. At the same time, because consumption behavior has been almost completely market-oriented in recent years, the government has no direct stimulus measures. Therefore, under the circumstances where residents' income is growing steadily and consumption psychology is becoming increasingly mature. The actual growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in 1998 was basically the same as that in 1997. Affected by price factors, the nominal growth rate was higher than that in 1997.

4. Import growth is accelerating and export growth is slowing down

Since 1994, my country's import and export trade has been in surplus for four consecutive years, and the amount is getting larger and larger. Therefore,

Trade frictions are increasing and international pressure is increasing. In addition, since my country has significantly reduced import and export tariffs since October 1, 1997, it will stimulate import growth to a certain extent. In the case of relatively low growth in 1997, 1998

The annual import growth will rebound, estimated to be about 13% higher than that in 1997. As for exports, due to the acceleration of domestic investment growth in 1998 and the expansion of domestic demand, this will be to a certain extent Suppressing the substantial growth in export demand. At the same time, due to the strong RMB value year after year, the competitiveness of my country's commodity exports has weakened compared with some foreign countries. In 1997, the export growth rate Under the influence of the higher base, it is estimated that the export growth rate in 1998 will be lower than that in 1997, and the growth rate is expected to be around 10%.

The trade surplus reached 26.7 billion U.S. dollars, which is not small in absolute terms.

However, compared with 1997, the growth rate of net exports dropped significantly, so the driving effect of net exports on GDP in 1998 was reduced

weak.

5. Prices rebounded slightly

After analyzing various factors affecting price increases, we believe that price increases in 1998 will remain at a low

level. The reasons are as follows: First, the price increase in 1997 was low, which had almost no upward impact on 1998; second, the prices of production materials and agricultural product prices were at a very low level, which caused p>

There is little pressure to increase costs; third, import tariffs will be significantly reduced, and import costs will also drop; fourth, market supply and demand

The pattern will not change significantly, and social supply and demand are balanced; fifth, From the perspective of monetary factors, the growth rate of M2 in 1997 dropped significantly compared with previous years. From the perspective of empirical data, the impact of M2 on price increases often lags behind. one year, so the momentum for price increases in 1998 weakened. If we take into account that relevant national departments and local

government departments may take advantage of the low price increase in recent years to introduce some price adjustment measures, it is expected that the retail price of social commodities will increase in 2098

At around 3.3%, consumer prices rose at around 5.6%.

6. Fiscal finance continues to operate smoothly

In the past two years, due to strengthening industrial and commercial tax collection and management, improving personal income tax collection methods and raising stamp tax rates

and other measures have significantly expanded the tax base, and the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP has begun to rebound. In 1998

With the further deepening of the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, fiscal and tax collection will be more standardized. Some previous "fees"

may be included in the scope of fiscal revenue. In addition, the economic benefits of enterprises are expected to be promising. The growth rate of imports is relatively high, so the growth rate of fiscal revenue will likely continue to be higher than the growth rate of GDP at current prices, and its proportion will continue to rise slightly. It is initially expected that fiscal revenue growth in 2098 will be 16.6%. Since the pace of corporate mergers and bankruptcies will accelerate in 1998, there will be greater pressure on fiscal expenditures. To achieve the fiscal deficit control target, great efforts must be made to increase revenue and reduce expenditure.

As a monetary policy that has a direct impact on the macroeconomy, it is expected that it will still be moderately tight in 1998, but

the loan structure will undergo major changes. Some high-quality companies have a loose financial environment, while some companies with high debt ratios and poor debt repayment capabilities will have to face a shortage of funds. Judging from various financial indicators, the scale of cash investment in 1998 is still large. The reason is that the scale of the stock market will further expand in 1998, which will attract some funds, and at the same time, interest rates will continue Remaining at a low level has enhanced residents' willingness to hold cash. In addition, business credit is not good, and there are many phenomena of paying with one hand and delivering goods with one hand in transactions between enterprises. M0 is expected to grow by about 13%

. M1 will show a steady growth trend with the steady growth of the economy, and the balance at the end of the year is expected to increase by about 18.8% year-on-year

, basically in the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" "Within the planned currency control target. With the stable growth of residents' savings, M2 is expected to increase by about 20%, which is within the 23% target of the "Ninth Five-Year Plan".