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How does trade imbalance affect the exchange rate in international finance (short-term and long-term effects)? How does interest rate affect exchange rate?
First question: At present, China's balance of payments is mainly composed of four items according to the principles of the Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition) issued by the International Monetary Fund: (1) current account. It reflects the frequent items in China's foreign exchanges and is the most important item in the international balance of payments. It is mainly composed of four main items: imported goods, labor revenue and expenditure, income revenue and expenditure, and frequent transfer by official and other departments. (2) Capital and financial projects. It reflects the outflow and inflow of capital and assets. It mainly consists of two major items: capital item and financial item, in which the financial item is divided into three minor items: direct investment, securities investment and other investments. (3) Net errors and omissions. Due to the frequent mistakes and omissions in the balance of payments statistics, there are often gaps in the balance of payments. Therefore, special projects are set up to balance revenue and expenditure in form. (4) Reserve assets. It is an international financial asset owned by the state and can be used to balance the balance of payments. It is mainly composed of monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund, foreign exchange reserves and other debts. The exchange rate is determined by the increase or decrease of various foreign currency assets, and the increase or decrease of various foreign currency assets is due to the adjustment of the proportion of investors' foreign currency assets. The criteria for judging the imbalance of international payments and the analysis of the causes of the imbalance of international payments (I) The criteria for judging the imbalance of international payments generally mean that the difference of "independent transactions" in international payments is zero. (B) The reasons for the imbalance of international payments are: 1, economic growth. International economic growth has obvious influence on the balance of payments. Economic growth often causes two types of imbalances, namely, cyclical imbalance and income imbalance. 2. Economic structure. Due to the imbalance of economic structure, industrial structure, product structure and consumption structure, the balance of payments presents structural imbalance. 3. Monetary factors. When the domestic money supply is too much or too little, it will lead to the decline or increase of the purchasing power of domestic money, which will lead to the change of import and export and the imbalance of international payments. 4. Contingency factors. Imbalance of international payments caused by one-off emergencies at home and abroad. 5. Foreign exchange speculation and international capital flows. At present, the outflow and inflow of huge hot money in the international financial market has become an important factor affecting the balance of payments of various countries. The influence and adjustment of the imbalance of international payments (I) The influence of the imbalance of international payments on a country's economy cannot be ignored. 1, a country's long-term large balance of payments surplus (exports exceed imports, resulting in an increase in foreign exchange reserves and an increase in local currency demand) is prone to the pressure of local currency appreciation and potential inflationary pressure. The huge surplus will obviously have a negative impact on the economy. (1) A country with a huge surplus will inevitably cause the foreign exchange rate to fall and the local currency to appreciate, which will cause exchange rate fluctuations. The fluctuation of exchange rate creates conditions for speculation, which makes the foreign exchange market into chaos; (2) The huge surplus forms a large demand for local currency in foreign exchange supply, forcing local monetary authorities to increase local currency, thus aggravating domestic inflation. 2. The impact of the balance of payments deficit should not be underestimated. There are three adverse effects of the deficit: ① The persistent deficit in the balance of payments will make the accumulated external liabilities of the country exceed its ability to pay, and in severe cases, an international debt crisis may occur; The shortage of foreign exchange in countries with huge deficits will inevitably lead to the rise of foreign exchange rate and the depreciation of local currency, which will naturally weaken the international status of local currency; (3) As the persistent deficit exhausts the country's international reserves, the export proceeds are mainly used to pay the principal and interest of foreign debts, which will inevitably affect the import of the means of production necessary for the development of production, making the country's economic development weak, thus affecting national income and worsening the employment problem. Whether it is a sustained surplus or deficit, it will affect the normal development of the national economy, and corresponding measures must be taken to adjust it. At present, governments of various countries mainly regulate and control through administrative means, economic means and international economic cooperation. The main ways to adjust the imbalance of international payments are: 1, commodity adjustment. The award is only for entry. 2. Implement financial policies. Balance of payments by adjusting interest rates or exchange rates. 3. Implement fiscal policy. It regulates the balance of payments by expanding or reducing fiscal expenditure and raising or lowering tax rates. 4. Use international loans to balance the balance of payments. 5. Direct control. The state directly intervenes in the foreign exchange rate to improve the balance of payments.