For most people in China, gold trading is obviously unfamiliar. Gold has only gradually appeared in the domestic investment market in the past two years. There is no doubt about the value preservation of gold. But many people may not understand what factors affect the trading price of gold in the international commodity trading market.
In fact, the exchange rate of the US dollar, the price of oil, the transactions of central banks and international institutions, the investment demand of financial commodities, the influence of international stock prices and the increase and decrease of industrial demand all affect the trend of gold prices to varying degrees.
Demand and supply determine the price of gold.
Gold is essentially a commodity. In this case, the change of gold price naturally follows the most basic economic law. In essence, the price of gold is determined by supply and demand.
Cai, a gold trader at Bank of China, analyzed that due to the relatively low price of gold in previous years and the low enthusiasm of global investment in gold mines, the gold output showed a downward trend in recent years. Coupled with strikes and other factors, the output of South Africa, the world's largest gold producer, fell to the lowest point in 75 years in 2005. On the other hand, the global demand for gold surged, the supply decreased and the demand increased, pushing the trend of gold to record highs.
Usually, what we call gold demand includes general industrial demand and non-industrial demand. Tian Shuhua of Galaxy Securities Research Center believes that the global industrial demand for gold only accounts for about 10% of the total demand, and correspondingly, the non-industrial demand accounts for 90%, accounting for the bulk.
The non-industrial demand for gold mainly includes three aspects: the first is the demand of central banks for gold reserves, the second is the demand of residents for jewelry consumption, and the third is the demand for investment. Judging from the situation in recent years, the demand in these three areas is increasing rapidly. In the second half of 2005, when the price of gold broke a new high, the data released by the World Gold Council showed that the global demand for gold investment increased by 56% in the second half of 2005. With the exception of India, the demand of other major gold and jewelry markets is increasing, with China increasing by 9% year-on-year and the United States increasing by 3%.
At the same time, central banks have also stepped in to increase their gold reserves. The central banks of Russia, Argentina, South Africa and other countries announced their decision to increase their gold reserves in June last year 165438+ 10. The central banks of Europe 15 countries signed a gold sales agreement in 2004, stipulating that the annual sales of gold should not exceed 500 tons in the next five years. These measures kept the demand for gold within a certain range, which led to the increase of gold reserves in European countries, thus reversing the trend of European Central Bank selling gold in recent six years.
Recently, international media such as The Wall Street Journal and The Economist reported that the ongoing RMB reform in China will prompt the central bank to increase its gold reserves. Like many countries, China faced the problem that its foreign exchange reserves were too single in the past, so the transition of foreign exchange reserves from single dollar to diversified reserves is also the general trend. Because of this, the market expects that China's huge demand for gold will become one of the driving forces for the future gold price increase.
From the past historical experience, every time the global economic structure is adjusted, the flow pattern of gold will change. The more unstable the international monetary system is, the more fully the monetary function and strategic value preservation function of gold will be displayed.
By the end of 2005, China's foreign exchange reserves had exceeded $800 billion, while gold reserves were only over 600 tons, accounting for only 1. 1% of foreign exchange reserves. This is a risk not only for China, but also for the global monetary system. According to the gross national economy of China, the general international experience holds that the official gold reserve should at least reach the level of Italian and Swiss in the short to medium term, that is, about 2,500 tons; In the long run, at least it should be raised to the level of Germany and France, that is, more than 3000 tons. In this sense, there is still much room for improvement in China's demand for gold.
The "three golds" wrestle with each other.
Gold, USD and black gold (oil) are also called "three gold". Generally speaking, the trend of "three golds" has a strong correlation. In the past few decades, the trend of gold has maintained a very obvious negative correlation with the US dollar, while the prices of oil and gold have maintained an obvious positive correlation for a long time, and their fluctuations have converged.
However, it is puzzling that the relationship between the dollar and gold was "challenged" last year. Affected by the interest rate hike of the US dollar, in 2005, the US dollar stopped falling and rebounded by about 8%. At the same time, gold and the dollar are neck and neck, and the trend has jumped all the way to record highs.
This strange phenomenon has aroused heated discussions in foreign academic circles, and some even think that the long-standing "competitive" relationship between the dollar and gold has come to an end. However, most people still believe that the "seesaw" relationship between the dollar and gold has not changed.
The reason is that the long-term factors that lead to the depreciation of the US dollar, namely the US trade deficit and low savings rate, still restrict the US dollar. In the long run, the long-term weakening trend of the US dollar has not changed. From the perspective of 2006, the monetary tightening policy of the Federal Reserve may come to an end, the federal funds rate may remain within the range of about 5%, and at the same time, it may encounter the risk of interest rate reduction during the downturn of the US economy, so the US dollar may not be supported by the US monetary policy in the coming year.
At the same time, with the recovery of European economy, the adjustment of euro interest rate may also narrow the spread between the US dollar and the euro, thus reducing the attractiveness of US dollar assets, resulting in a decrease in the net inflow of US capital, which is not conducive to the strength of the US dollar. In other words, although the dollar stopped falling and rebounded in 2005, the market's expectation of its long-term weakening has not changed. From this perspective, the rise of gold and the temporary rise of the dollar are only a short-term "encounter", and the longer-term relationship between them is as negative as before.
On the other hand, the relationship between gold and oil prices has also kept pace. This is mainly because rising crude oil prices usually lead to inflation, and once inflation expectations appear, international funds will try to find a safe haven. Gold is especially concerned by low-risk funds because of its excellent value-preserving function, so the increase of gold demand will raise the price of gold. This is why the prices of gold and oil tend to be synchronized. From this perspective, the trend of gold price in 2006 will also largely depend on the trend of oil price.
International funds are moving towards the vane
Another important factor affecting the price of gold is the flow of international funds.
As an investment tool with good monetary attributes, gold has become a tool for many international investment institutions to hedge credit currency risks, and sometimes it is also the object of direct investment. The daily trading volume in London market, the largest international gold distribution center, is about $7 1 100 million. The daily trading volume in the New York Mercantile Exchange is $2.8 billion, followed by $2 billion in Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The trading volume of nine thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine and 9995 gold in China Shanghai Gold Exchange is also increasing gradually, which shows that gold futures and spot are mature and active investment products in the commodity market, and people are paying more and more attention to them.
By the end of 65438+20061October 3, the long position of the New York Mercantile Exchange Gold Fund had reached1510,000 lots, about 469.7 tons, accounting for 46% of the total position. International investment funds invest heavily in gold, which brings more and more uncertainty to the gold market. Under the "hype" of the fund's huge long and short positions, the short and medium-term trend of gold prices often deviates from the normal price determinants and falls into irrational market prosperity and depression. Many experts believe that international funds have contributed to the amazing rise of gold in the past two years.
Since 1982, the price of gold once broke through the $500 mark per ounce, and basically went down all the way in the 1990s. This is mainly because the yield of gold at that time was only 1%~2%, which was lower than the yield of US Treasury bonds of 4%~5% in the same period. This has prompted central banks to make profits by selling gold and buying US Treasury bonds.
Before 1998, one of the main reasons for the decline of gold price was the crazy rise of the stock market in the 1990s, which caused the global obsession with paper wealth. People are addicted to the unilaterally rising stock market and global funds are strongly sought after. Even central banks all over the world think that gold is a kind of reserve that can't bring interest but occupies a lot of storage costs, so that many central banks in Europe have reduced their holdings of gold and auctioned it in the international market. At the same time, in order to prevent the price of gold from falling, gold mining enterprises sold the future gold production that had not been dug up in the international market, which also suppressed the price of gold.
This round of decline in gold ended with 1998, and then the bubble in the US stock market grew bigger every day. With the bursting of the American stock market bubble, the price of gold began to rebound strongly, hitting record highs.
Many analysts have revealed such a message. They believe that there are fundamental problems in the economies of the United States and the European Union, such as the insufficient savings rate in the United States, the aging population in the European Union and the shortage of pensions. Investors are worried that these countries will be forced to increase the money supply, which will affect the global economy, and the dollar and euro will also be affected. Therefore, international investors believe that gold will become a trustworthy international hard currency. In fact, as long as a small part of global funds turn to invest in gold, it is enough to cause a huge rise in gold prices.
Many funds invest in gold in order to diversify investment risks and realize investment diversification, which is also one of the direct reasons for the rise in gold prices. Some banks have also set up new gold exchange trading funds. Since 1995, this new fund alone has held 420 tons of gold, which is close to the two-year output of Newmount, the world's largest gold mining company.
The Relationship between Gold and Stock Market
In just a few years, why has the price of gold hit record highs, even reaching a new high in 25 years? The price of gold, the best indicator to detect whether there is price distortion in the international money market, sends us a clear message that the international money price system has been distorted. Behind this information, more important investment information is revealed. Because the price of gold is usually inversely proportional to the rise and fall of the stock market, we may find some "inspiration" for investment from the trend of gold.
Why do you say that? Let's look at the United States, which is called the issuing country. In the past year, the Federal Reserve kept raising short-term interest rates, but at the same time it issued excessive money-quite a few American economists believe that this is why the price of gold rose by 80% compared with four years ago. At the same time, it is precisely because of the expansionary monetary policy of the United States that the oil price bubble was inadvertently caused. As a result, the wait-and-see atmosphere of international funds is strong, and funds choose gold as a safe haven when they cannot rationally judge the future.
The indecision of international funds directly affects the performance of American stock market and global stock market. Three years ago, the American stock market began to enter a small bull market. Fundamentally speaking, more than three years ago, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 26 times. Now, the S&P index has risen by 60%, but the P/E ratio has dropped to 19 times. At the same time, corporate profits have been growing continuously, far exceeding the market forecast.
When the stock price rises, corporate profits rise, but the P/E ratio falls. In other words, the current performance of the US stock market should be better, the increase should be higher, and the stock market should be thriving. What hinders the prosperity of the stock market? In fact, the market is not short of funds to push the stock market higher. What the market lacks is the willingness to invest. Uncertain economic prospects hinder the pace of capital entering the stock market. As a result, some safe-haven funds are concentrated in gold investment, thus pushing up the price of gold. Investors can easily judge the views of international funds on the stock market according to the price of gold.
Gold is not only the best indicator to judge whether the money market is distorted, but also an excellent indicator to judge whether investment opportunities are coming. Once the economic boom improves and the investment direction is clear, then the funds chasing the yield will inevitably turn to other investments, which has been repeatedly verified in the past history. After all, the normal yield of gold is lower than that of national debt. When the market uncertainty subsides, the demand for gold will inevitably decline. In other words, if the price of gold enters the downward channel, it will mean the arrival of investment opportunities in the stock market for investors.