For industries that mainly rely on foreign procurement of raw materials or equipment or have highly liquid RMB assets, RMB appreciation will be a long-term positive; It will generate a one-time exchange gain for industries with a large amount of foreign debts in US dollars; However, it has a great impact on export-oriented industries and industries with international pricing.
Raw material import and high foreign currency debt industry
Appreciation is good for industries that mainly rely on foreign procurement for raw materials or equipment, or have large foreign debts, such as aviation, paper making, electric power and construction machinery.
Aircraft industry
The appreciation of RMB will greatly reduce the procurement cost of imported goods such as aircraft and jet fuel, and at the same time, a large number of foreign debts denominated in US dollars will be greatly reduced. The dollar debt of China's civil aviation industry is estimated to be around $6 billion. A 5% increase in the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will bring us $300 million in exchange gains, and 10% is US$ 600 million, equivalent to RMB 2,500,500 million. Taking China Southern Airlines as an example, the RMB appreciated 1% against the US dollar, and the earnings per share increased by 0.03 yuan. In addition, importing American aircraft, aviation materials and fuel will reduce RMB expenditure and operating costs due to the appreciation of the US dollar. However, for international airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which operate more international routes, the appreciation of RMB will reduce their income from international routes, especially from the US dollar area, which is a negative impact.
paper industry
The appreciation of RMB will make it cheaper for domestic paper enterprises to import important raw materials and machinery and equipment such as pulp and waste paper, which will help enterprises reduce costs; But at the same time, it also makes imported finished paper cheaper, which may have a certain impact on domestic paper prices. Generally speaking, it is used as raw material for producing high-grade paper (such as color offset newsprint, coated paper, lightweight coated paper, high-grade packaging paper such as white cardboard, etc.). ) Most of them are imported wood pulp and waste paper. Traditional writing paper, cultural paper and low-grade wrapping paper use domestic straw pulp and wood pulp. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB can only reduce the cost of high-grade paper, but has no effect on low-grade paper.
power industry
The cost of importing power equipment and fuel will be reduced, while the book exchange gains of companies with dollar liabilities will increase. The impact of RMB exchange rate adjustment on power enterprises is reflected in the following aspects:
In terms of investment in power equipment, all thermal power units below 300,000 kilowatts are domestic equipment, while some large oil-fired and gas-fired units are still imported from abroad. For example, the price of the main model PG9120,000 kW in Shennan Power Plant is about 400 million yuan, and an increase of 5% will reduce the import cost by 20 million yuan. For enterprises that purchase foreign equipment, the overall purchase cost will be reduced, so the depreciation will be slightly reduced.
In terms of revenue, the business of power companies is denominated in RMB in China, which is not affected. Some auto parts are exported to the United States, nearly $3 million. The appreciation of RMB has a certain negative impact on it.
In terms of fuel cost, domestic power generation enterprises use domestic coal except Huaneng International, which rarely imports coal. Only Shennan Electric Power Company has great influence. The company imports 600,000 tons of heavy oil and 60,000 tons of light oil every year, which consumes 654.38+0.2 billion yuan of foreign exchange, RMB appreciates by 5%, costs are reduced by 60 million yuan, net profit is increased by 50 million yuan, and earnings per share is increased by 9 cents.
In terms of external debt, Guiguan Power's remaining external debt was US$ 654.38+200,000, RMB appreciated by 5%, liabilities decreased by 5 million, and exchange gains and losses affected the earnings per share of the year by 0.6 points. Other companies, such as Shenneng, Guodian Power and Shanghai Power, also have some foreign debts, but these companies all claim that hedging has little impact.
Construction machinery industry
The advantages of RMB appreciation outweigh the disadvantages for listed companies in the construction machinery industry. Some spare parts of excavators, pump trucks and loaders of listed companies in construction machinery industry are purchased from abroad. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the company's import and procurement costs, which is beneficial to the company's operation.
In terms of export, the export share of products of listed companies in the construction machinery industry is currently less than 65,438+00% of the company's annual main business income, and the price difference between domestic products and foreign products is more than one third. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB by 5 percentage points has little effect on the cost performance of products and hardly affects the export demand.
Capital inflows are good for the real estate and financial industries.
In the process of appreciation, the real estate and financial industries will attract a lot of international hot money because of their good liquidity and liquidity, which will obviously benefit the relevant listed companies.
real estate industry
The impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate industry will be mainly reflected through the following channels.
Capital inflow effect: RMB appreciation generally means that the domestic economy as a whole is improving, there are many investment opportunities, and the income level is relatively considerable (at least additional exchange gains can be obtained). Therefore, a large amount of foreign capital will enter the domestic market through various channels, and the stock market and real estate market become the places where these funds are concentrated because of their good liquidity, which eventually leads to the stock market rising and the real estate price rising, which is more obvious in the markets of * * and Taiwan Province Province. Although China's foreign exchange control is relatively strict, this trend is also taking shape from the inflow of foreign capital in 2003. At the end of 2003, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by about 1 169 billion US dollars, but the trade surplus was only 25.53 billion US dollars, and the foreign direct investment was about 57 billion US dollars (estimated by Lu Fuyuan). There may be a lot of speculative funds in the gap of about $34.4 billion, and foreign direct investment is among them.
Wealth effect: Due to abundant funds, rising stock market and overall economic prosperity, the income level of residents will be greatly improved, which will stimulate people to form a strong wealth effect. Therefore, real estate will be sought after as the main focus of consumption upgrading, thus enhancing the effective demand for real estate. * * * 1985- 1990, when the yen appreciated the most, it was also the period when the stock market and the real estate market rose the most.
Expected effect: We believe that we should attach great importance to people's psychological factors when evaluating the impact of appreciation. People's profit-seeking psychology and conformity psychology are very common, which will be fully manifested with the warming of the market, which will obviously contribute to the rise of capital market and real estate prices.
Financial industry
The appreciation of RMB has little impact on the banking industry, but it has a great positive impact on the securities industry. At present, the foreign exchange deposit and loan business of listed joint-stock commercial banks is relatively small. For example, at the end of 2003, the company's foreign exchange assets in US dollars were US$ 4.889 billion, and the assets in other currencies were about 65,438+0,465,438+0%, accounting for about 65,438+0% of the total assets, of which the total foreign exchange liabilities in US dollars were US$ 4.699 billion and the exchange rate risk exposure was 65,438+. If calculated simply, the appreciation of RMB has little effect on it. Assuming that RMB appreciates by 5%, the profit will be directly reduced by 78.85 million yuan, which is equivalent to earnings per share of 0.0 1 yuan. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's foreign exchange assets account for only about 7%, and the appreciation has relatively little impact on it.
The appreciation of RMB will have an important impact on the capital market, which can be learned from the appreciation of local currency in Taiwan Province Province and other countries or regions. We believe that before or at the beginning of appreciation, international hot money and speculative capital will gradually intervene in the stock market, creating a relatively relaxed capital environment for the stock market to rise, so CITIC Securities is expected to benefit from it.
The export and international pricing industries have been greatly affected.
Weaken the competitiveness of export-oriented industries
For export-oriented industries and listed companies, the appreciation of RMB will greatly weaken the competitive advantage of products and have a great impact on company performance. Such as foreign trade, textiles and clothing, home appliances and other industries.
foreign trade
After the reduction of export tax rebate, the profit level of foreign trade enterprises has been very low. In order to reduce the fixed cost of unit products, many enterprises only increase sales through exports, and there is little room for further price reduction. Therefore, the competitiveness of our products will be greatly affected. From the profit point of view, because foreign trade enterprises are at a disadvantage in the industrial chain, it is difficult for import business to obtain excess profits from RMB appreciation, but export business will suffer heavy losses. Therefore, under the influence of the reduction of export tax rebate, if the RMB appreciates further, most foreign trade enterprises will be on the verge of losses.
Textile and garment industry
China textile and garment industry is highly dependent on foreign countries and sensitive to exchange rate changes. In 2003, the total output value of the textile and garment industry exceeded 654.38+0.2 trillion yuan, of which 80 billion US dollars were exported, accounting for 55% of the industry income and 654.38+0.8% of the national total export value, making it the largest export industry in China. Most export products of textile industry are settled in US dollars. If the RMB appreciates, the RMB income of export products will decrease. Due to the low concentration and fierce competition in the domestic textile and garment industry, it is generally difficult for enterprises to transfer the negative effects of RMB appreciation to customers. If the exchange rate is adjusted by 5% in 2005, enterprises should absorb at least 3-4% on their own, so the export gross profit margin will be reduced by 3-4% accordingly. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB has a great negative impact on textile and garment listed companies.
Instrument industry
The impact of RMB appreciation on listed companies in home appliance industry needs to be considered from three main aspects: exchange gains and losses caused by foreign exchange deposits and liabilities, decline in export profits and decline in export demand.
Household appliance enterprises basically have no foreign currency debt, which can be ignored; Most of the foreign currency deposits disclosed in the statement book are foreign exchange deposits, and the risk of foreign exchange settlement is controllable, resulting in a one-off exchange loss, which only affects the performance of the year; In fact, the risky exchange loss comes from foreign currency receivables in accounts receivable. Because the disclosure in the statement converts it into RMB and domestic receivables, it is impossible to know the actual foreign currency receivables of each company, so it is impossible to estimate this part of the impact (the attached table only estimates according to the foreign currency deposits disclosed in the statement). Through communication with some enterprises, it is known that banks can provide relevant settlement tools to help enterprises settle foreign exchange in advance and lock in exchange losses. Generally speaking, the risk is greater than that of companies with significant exports and poor recovery, such as Sichuan Changhong.
The transmission mechanism of export's influence on profit is that the demand for export sales of production enterprises makes the pricing ability of products weak, and as a result, the appreciation of RMB leads to the decline of product prices, while the domestic procurement cost remains unchanged, leading to the decline of profits.
It is difficult to measure the decline of export demand, because its influence is influenced by the export market strategy of enterprises: in order to ensure the price competitiveness of exports, enterprises pursue the strategy of price reduction and appreciation, so the decline of export market demand may not be obvious; If the price reduction of products exported by enterprises is lower than the appreciation of RMB, then compared with low-cost areas such as Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness will decline. We expect that for key listed companies, the former is more likely. Because of their different positions in the global supply chain, the export demand of each sub-industry is slightly affected. Air conditioning shipments account for more than 65% of the global supply, so the impact should be small.
The international pricing industry has been hit hard.
petrochemical industry
Appreciation has different effects on industries in different positions in the petrochemical product chain.
Extractive industry (crude oil exploitation): The key indicator affecting this industry is oil price. Domestic oil prices have long been in line with international standards and are priced in US dollars. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB by x% will directly lead to the decline of crude oil price of listed companies by x%, and the profits will be squeezed.
Refining industry: The characteristic of this industry is that the pricing of raw materials (crude oil) is international, and the pricing of products (refined oil) is controlled by the government. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB by x% will directly reduce the cost of crude oil by x%, while the price of refined oil is likely to lag behind and the related profits will be greatly improved.
Petrochemical industry: The characteristics of this industry are that the pricing of raw materials (naphtha) is controlled by the government and the products (various petrochemical products) are internationalized. Therefore, the impact of RMB appreciation on it is just the opposite to that of the oil refining industry-raw material prices remain unchanged, product prices fall, and profits will be squeezed. However, because the top four companies in the industry are integrated refining and chemical companies, naphtha is produced by the company itself, and the direct cost-crude oil price will also drop, so the impact is limited, while Qilu Petrochemical will directly face the pressure of falling prices and its profits will be greatly squeezed.
Nitrogen fertilizer industry: Generally speaking, the internationalization of domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry is low, and raw materials and products are purchased and sold in China, which is denominated in RMB, so the impact is not great.
Nonferrous metal industry
Nonferrous metals are also internationally priced commodities. The appreciation of RMB will reduce the cost of these goods imported from abroad, bring greater pressure on domestic related enterprises to reduce prices, and then have a certain adverse impact on the profits of non-ferrous metal companies.
Less affected industries
Transportation (roads, ports, shipping)
The impact of RMB appreciation on the transportation industry can be analyzed from the following aspects: the asset structure, whether it is ports, shipping or highways, is basically denominated in RMB, and the future asset expansion is also dominated by RMB assets. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB has little effect on the assets of industries and listed companies. In the debt structure, the port and shipping company has a small amount of US dollars or Hong Kong dollars debt, but the amount is not large and the debt ratio is not high. Therefore, although the appreciation of RMB is conducive to reducing the financial expenses of enterprises, it has little impact on net profit. In terms of income structure, more than 90% of shipping enterprises mainly engaged in ocean transportation settle in US dollars, while those mainly engaged in domestic trade also have a little foreign currency income. Therefore, appreciation will directly affect the company's income. Nearly half of the income of port enterprises is settled in US dollars or Hong Kong dollars, which will inevitably be affected. In terms of cost structure, except that more than 50% of ocean transportation is calculated in US dollars, other industries are mainly in RMB. Therefore, appreciation is conducive to ocean shipping enterprises to reduce costs. In terms of bargaining power of enterprises, although port enterprises have strong bargaining power, due to industry characteristics and business inertia, the income and cost structure will not change greatly. Ocean shipping enterprises have room for adjustment in cost and income structure. For the substitution of imported products, because the transportation infrastructure is regional and monopolistic, the appreciation of RMB has no direct impact on the industries that provide transportation services such as ports and highways, and shipping enterprises will be under competitive pressure from foreign fleets. In addition, judging from the impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade, it is beneficial to import but not to export, so it has little impact on the overall throughput of the port, but it has an impact on the structure of import and export goods, while China's container throughput is mainly export, so container ports may be negatively affected.
Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB has a certain negative impact on the transportation industry, and the degree from big to small is shipping, ports and highways, among which highways are basically unaffected.
iron and steel industry
The biggest benefit of RMB appreciation to the steel industry is to reduce the procurement cost of the steel industry: at present, about 40% of iron ore depends on imports, while raw materials dominated by iron ore account for 30-40% of the steel cost; The listed companies that benefit mainly include Baosteel, WISCO, Masteel, Jigang and Nangang. The ratio of iron ore procurement import to domestic procurement of these companies is basically 7: 3, while other companies, such as Angang and Xingang Vanadium, which mainly own their own mines, have little influence. If the RMB appreciates by 5%, the cost per ton of steel will decrease by 18 yuan (calculated at the current FOB price of iron ore, regardless of the factors affecting the shipping freight), and the cost will decrease by 10%, 36 yuan/ton.
The negative impact of RMB appreciation on the steel industry is mainly to increase steel imports and reduce exports. Of course, this negative impact is medium and long-term, and it is restricted by domestic demand and price difference at home and abroad in the short term. This negative impact can be ignored: First, the domestic demand for steel is still strong, and the export volume only accounts for 4% of the output. From the perspective of product structure, the export products are mainly low value-added wires and ordinary plates, while the imported products are high value-added products that cannot be produced or have insufficient capacity in China, including thin plates for automobiles and medium plates for ships. Secondly, at present, the price difference at home and abroad is above 20%, even if the RMB appreciates, it still cannot make up for this price difference. In the medium and long term, with the gradual narrowing of the spread, especially the CIS price is now close to the domestic price, the prices in these areas will have a restraining effect on the domestic price, and the appreciation of RMB will increase this influence. The impact on specific companies can be ignored, because the export ratio of listed companies in the steel industry is very small.
At present, the main problems facing the steel industry are demand and supply. On the one hand, the slowdown in economic growth next year, especially in fixed assets, will have a greater impact on steel demand; On the other hand, the iron and steel industry entered the second investment peak in 2002, with an investment of 70.4 billion yuan in 2002 and a high of 654.38+04.27 billion yuan in 2003, with a year-on-year increase of 96.6%. In 2004, there was a surplus of long-term cooperative materials (mainly rebar, wire rod and other construction steel). In 2005 and 2006, the production of medium and heavy plate, hot rolled sheet and cold rolled sheet reached/kloc-0.50 million tons, 2/kloc-0.00 million tons and 28 million tons respectively. The main production capacity was released in 2006, so the supply and demand of plates will reach a balance in 2005. Therefore, the main contradiction facing the steel industry at present is the relationship between supply and demand, while the appreciation of RMB is only a secondary contradiction.
automotive industry
On the one hand, purchasing parts from abroad, appreciation is conducive to reducing costs; But at the same time, the price of imported cars has dropped, and the impact on domestic cars has increased. Generally speaking, due to the high localization rate of domestic auto parts, the decline in the price of imported parts is difficult to offset the negative impact of the decline in the import price of whole vehicles. If the RMB appreciates by 5%, assuming other factors remain unchanged, the price of imported cars will drop by 5%. The impact on the automobile industry will be greater than that on the truck and bus industries. For some cars with low localization rate, such as mazda 6 and Mondeo, it is beneficial to reduce the cost. However, it has a negative impact on some parts enterprises with export business, such as Fuyao Glass and Wanxiang Qian Chao.
coal industry
Because most companies (excluding Yanzhou Coal Industry) have a small proportion of coal exports to the company's output, and they have never even exported them. The exchange rate has little effect on such a company. On the other hand, the international coal price is still higher than the domestic coal price, and with the factors such as transportation capacity and freight cost, except in coastal areas, the exchange rate increase within 10% will not cause price impact on China's coal market. Major coal listed companies basically have no foreign currency liabilities, so there is no impact of exchange rate on financial costs.
Food and beverage industry
Some liquors of Maotai and Wuliangye are exported to Taiwan Province Province, so the exchange rate adjustment will have a negative impact. However, considering that the export volume is small and the export price is lower than the domestic sales price, the impact will be small. Yanjing beer also has some exports, and the quantity is very small. Changyu may be under pressure from imported wine, but the tariff on imported wine has been reduced this year, and the price of imported wine has not been lowered. The adverse impact of exchange rate adjustment on the company should be small. Bright Dairy will benefit from the downward adjustment of the price of imported raw milk powder, but the proportion of imported raw milk powder in the total milk consumption is estimated to be at most 5%, and the benefit is limited. There is basically no impact on the development of Shuanghui.