Will gold fall or rise in the second half of 2022 —— Forecast of gold trend in the second half of 2022
; ? 2022 is a special year. Many prices have gone up this year. Due to many factors, the price of gold has been rising. The price of gold jewelry has reached 5 10 yuan gram. In the second half of the year, gold is mostly in a stable state, and the probability of a sharp rise or fall is relatively low.
Will gold fall or rise in the second half of 2022?
Whether gold will rise or fall in 2022 is still uncertain.
This is the biggest drop since 20 15. 202 1, the global economy is in the process of recovery, which greatly weakens the safe-haven function of gold. In addition, the global economy is still in the process of recovery in 2022. In addition, the Fed has a core button, which is to raise interest rates. It is predicted that the interest rate hike will be as early as the end of 2022. The inflation rate in the United States is very high now. Some people speculate that the Fed may raise interest rates in the first half of this year, and the rate hike may last several times, which puts great pressure on the price of gold. It is difficult to predict whether it will go up or down.
It is reported that, influenced by the international situation, the price of gold broke through 500 yuan/gram on February 2, 20221day, among which Lao Fengxiang had the biggest increase, and 6 yuan was the first. The highest price is the old temple gold, the insured price is 505 yuan per gram. The lowest price of vegetable gold is 495 yuan per gram. Now the price difference of gold is per gram 10 yuan, which is relatively large. The spot gold market fell on Friday. Although gold rebounded sharply and finally closed at 1.897 USD/oz, today, spot gold rose again, reaching 1.908.34 USD/oz, and then fell, hovering around 1.895 USD.
Forecast of gold trend in the second half of 2022
It should not rise sharply and be in a stable state.
As a precious metal, gold has not only general commodity attributes, but also financial and monetary attributes. It has three functions: hedging, fighting inflation and investing.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by the global low interest rate environment and risk aversion, due to the continuous impact of the global epidemic, the price of gold has risen rapidly and hit record highs. Wind data shows that as of August 4th, the spot price of gold in London closed at 20 18.8 USD/oz, and the futures price of gold in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose above 2037. 1 USD/oz, and the spot and futures prices of gold once again hit a record high. The author believes that there are seven major factors for the rise of gold this year: first, sudden natural and man-made disasters lead to the risk aversion in troubled times, which leads to the increase of gold holdings and the rise of gold prices; Second, the global ultra-loose monetary policy has pushed up the price of gold; Third, the dollar index continued to fall rapidly, pushing up the price of gold. Fourth, the novel coronavirus crisis and local conflicts pushed up the price of gold. Fifth, inflation risk has pushed up the price of gold. Sixth, increased geopolitical risks pushed up the price of gold. Seventh, the supply and demand fundamentals that are in short supply have pushed up the price of gold.
Influencing factors of gold price
1, US economic data
As we all know, gold is denominated in dollars, so what factors will affect the price of gold? The first answer is the economic data of the US market. The quality of American economic data will directly stimulate the trend of the dollar, thus affecting the price of gold, which is usually inversely proportional. For example, if the US economic data performs well, the dollar will appreciate in the short term. On the contrary, the price of gold will be under pressure. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the news and information columns of high-quality platforms.
2. Global monetary policy
In addition to economic data, gold prices are also very sensitive to the adjustment of global monetary policy. Of course, American policy is particularly important. Raising interest rates will increase the cost of holding gold, so it usually depresses the price of gold. On the contrary, lowering interest rates will have a positive impact on the price of gold. Therefore, whenever the Fed makes important decisions, the price of gold will fluctuate greatly. If you want to trade at this time, you must use the price limit platform to control and protect risks.
3. Risk aversion
As an investment product with high risk aversion value in the financial market, the price trend of gold is also closely related to the risk aversion of the market, which is also one of the key factors affecting the price of gold, because it is an uncontrollable factor. Risk avoidance is mainly related to geopolitics, public health events, economic crisis and other factors. When the market risk increases, investors will choose to hold gold to avoid the risk, and the price of gold will naturally rise.
Tip:
In fact, there are many factors that affect the price of gold. In addition to the above three points, it also includes material demand, inflation environment and technical form. Therefore, if you want to make a profit in gold trading, you must constantly improve your analytical skills and study systematically through the column of Daejeon Global Gold Research Institute.
How to treat the gold price chart? Three simple methods
; ? For gold investors, judging the trend of gold price is an important prerequisite for making gold investment decisions. So what do you think of the gold price chart? Let's take a look at the judgment method of gold price trend.
1 and the trend analysis of K-line gold price
The K-line chart shows the negative line in green, the positive line in red, the negative line indicates that the closing price of gold is lower than the opening price, and the positive line is the opposite. The closing price is higher than the opening price, and the market may continue to rise.
The column between the opening price and the closing price is called an entity. Generally speaking, the bigger the entity, the more likely it is that the price of gold will rise or fall. For novice investors, the future trend of gold price can be roughly judged according to the number of two K-lines.
2. Analysis of the price trend of gold in Bollinger Band.
Bollinger Band Index is mainly used to analyze the transaction price of spot gold. The bollinger band index includes three trend lines: upper rail, middle rail and lower rail.
When the upper rail goes up, the lower rail goes down and the bollinger band opens, it shows that gold is on the rise in the short term. On the contrary, when the bollinger band shrinks, it shows that gold is in a weak position in the short term.
The bollinger band will change in real time according to market fluctuations, but there is always a certain lag, so investors still have to take profit and stop loss.
3. Market forecast
The price of gold will be affected by many factors, such as the trend of the US dollar, economic data, inflation and so on. For example, the trend of the dollar and the trend of gold are generally inversely related. If the dollar strengthens, investors tend to hold the dollar, while gold weakens. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, investors will be more inclined to hold gold to avoid risks, and gold will strengthen.
The above content about how to look at the gold price chart, I hope it will help everyone. Warm reminder, financial management is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
What is the basis for the rise and fall of gold?
1, the relationship between supply and demand: when the supply of gold is in short supply, the price of gold will rise; On the contrary, when the supply of gold exceeds the demand, the price of gold will fall.
2. Amount of funds: When the amount of funds for buying gold is relatively large, the price of gold will rise; On the contrary, when there is less money to buy gold, the price of gold will fall.
3. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar: Gold and the US dollar are negatively correlated. When the dollar appreciates, the price of gold will fall; On the contrary, when the dollar depreciates, the price of gold will rise.
4. Oil price rises and falls: Gold is positively related to oil. When oil prices rise, gold prices will rise; On the contrary, when oil prices fall, gold prices will fall.
It should be noted that the relationship between supply and demand and the amount of funds are the most important factors affecting the rise and fall of gold. In addition to the above factors, the international situation, war and other factors will also affect the rise and fall of gold prices.
The complete collection of analysis skills of gold trend chart
; ? First of all, how to look at the trend of gold and what is the relationship with the pricing of gold?
I. Gold pricing mechanism
At present, the most mainstream gold price in the world comes from the London gold market. The price was determined by five banks from different regions at 10: 30 GMT based on the closing price of the new york market on the previous trading day. Then, according to the closing price of the Hong Kong market on that day, the fixing price at 3 pm is determined. The fixing price is put forward by the chief representative bank, and the other four banks send the price to the proprietary trading system to start inquiry. If the buying and selling are balanced, the price becomes the opening price of the day; If the balance is not reached, the chief representative will adjust the price and make a new inquiry until the sale and purchase are balanced. Subsequently, the price information will be released to the world through Reuters, and financial markets will adjust the opening price of gold in the host country according to this price, combined with exchange rate and technical factors.
Second, the factors affecting the trend of gold prices
Because of its special properties, central banks all over the world regard gold as an important tool to maintain macroeconomic stability and confront systemic risks. According to the research on gold in recent years, we divide the factors affecting gold into three categories, namely, guiding factors, correlation factors and stage factors.
Guiding factor
The guiding factor is usually understood as the influence of national macroeconomic policies and central bank financial data on gold prices. These data are usually not reflected in the price of gold quickly, but they can play a long-term guiding role in the price of gold. Among them, the focus is on: central bank's balance sheet, money supply, commodity price index, expected annualized yield of national debt, expected annualized interest rate of London interbank lending, and various confidence indexes. Taking the central bank's balance sheet as an example, it has a long-term significant impact on the price of gold, as shown in the following figure:
As can be seen from the figure, with the expansion of the balance sheet of the monetary authorities, the price of gold is also rising gradually. This trend has been running smoothly since 1999 13 years. The key to the correlation between them lies in the nature of the central bank's balance sheet itself. The expansion of balance sheet reflects the growth of money stock and various deposits, the expansion of foreign exchange and gold, and the expansion of capital account. 20 13 it is not difficult to predict the downward trend of gold prices under the expectation that global central banks will shrink their balance sheets.
correlation factor
Correlation coefficient refers to the assets and data with a large correlation coefficient with gold. The changes of these factors have a significant impact on gold in a short time. According to our research, these factors mainly include: US dollar index, CRB index, US stock market index, employment data, SPDR data and so on. This change in data can have a great impact on the price of gold in a short time. Such as employment data. At present, we focus on the monthly changes of unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment in the United States. As far as the current situation is concerned, the impact of this data almost exceeds the impact of the US dollar index on the price of gold. Another example is SPDR data, whose changes are directly reflected in the transactions in financial markets. Increasing holdings will lead to price increases, while reducing holdings will inhibit the formation of prices. At the same time, the continuous one-way operation of SPDR will greatly affect the psychological expectation of the whole market participants and form an important intervention in the market in a short time.
Stage factor
Stage factors mainly refer to the impact of an unexpected event on the price of gold, such as coup, crisis, war, natural disasters and so on. The inherent hedging function leads to the extremely violent reaction of gold to stage factors. The main reason is that investors are worried about the sovereign currency of the country where the incident occurred. In recent years, when there is a crisis, gold and the dollar tend to rise together, which to some extent reflects the weakening of the overall function of gold and the return of a strong dollar. For the study of stage factors, almost all positive cycle studies are carried out smoothly through the development of time. Take war as an example, that is, from the friction between the two countries, the coordination of the international community, local wars, large-scale wars, the end of wars, and post-war recovery. We can only make an unsystematic analysis through the changes of domestic economic situation, capital flow, population flow, military strength and other factors at the incident stage. The reason is that the replication of factors is not strong.
To sum up, we believe that there are three types of factors that have a significant impact on the price of gold. Among the three factors, the guiding factor belongs to the macroeconomic category and is insensitive to the price of gold, but it has a long-term guiding role; Correlation coefficient is used more in actual financial transactions, because it is extremely sensitive to the price of gold, and it is relatively easy for investors to obtain such data information; For the study of stage factors, due to technical reasons and the events themselves, it is not appropriate to obtain more first-hand information. Therefore, the study of stage factors belongs to positive cycle and empirical research.
So what are the analytical skills of the gold chart?
The gold trend chart is a technical graph that shows the price, time, trading volume and other information of the gold trading market in a certain period of time on the coordinate chart with curves or K lines. The horizontal axis of the coordinate is a fixed time period, the upper part of the vertical axis is the gold price or index of the time period, and the lower part shows the trading volume. Trend charts can be divided into curve trend charts and K-line trend charts by definition.
The key to the success of gold investment lies in whether the price chart of gold can be correctly analyzed and judged. The price change of gold is related to the market situation. There is no guaranteed income from investment and financial management, and neither is gold. Similar to stocks, it is necessary to predict through certain analysis. There are two main methods to predict the price trend: basic analysis and technical analysis. Both of them analyze the market from two different angles and have their own characteristics in actual operation, so investors should combine them.
"Paper gold" is a kind of personal voucher gold. Investors buy and sell "virtual" gold on the books according to the bank quotation. Individuals earn the fluctuating price difference of gold by grasping the trend of international gold price. Investors' transaction records are only reflected in the "gold passbook account" opened by individuals in advance, and there is no cash withdrawal and delivery of real money and silver.
Paper gold trend chart is an important analysis tool in paper gold investment. Using the paper gold chart, we can accurately know the current market and speculate the next market according to the price trend.
Paper gold trend chart analysis is the abbreviation of gold price trend analysis and forecast report. Through the analysis of fundamentals, technology and news, the paper gold price trend forecast is obtained.
As a very important reference tool in investment analysis, K-line chart is often used in foreign exchange market, stock market and futures market. The so-called foreign exchange trend analysis is mainly based on K-line chart. In the investment of paper gold, the basic purpose of K-chart is to find "selling points", so it is very useful for investors to master some K-chart analysis skills.
The gold trend chart is a technical graph that shows the price, time, trading volume and other information of the gold trading market in a certain period of time on the coordinate chart with curves or K lines. The horizontal axis of the gold coordinate is a fixed time period, the upper part of the vertical axis is the gold price or index of this time period, and the lower part shows the trading volume. According to the definition, there are two kinds of charts: spot gold curve chart and spot gold K-line chart.
Many investors don't know much about the technical analysis of spot gold, especially novices. Many of them feel a little confused when they see the K-line chart of gold. So here are some basic and effective technical analysis methods.
Why did international gold plummet? Will the future trend collapse or bottom out?
Due to the tight currency of the Federal Reserve, international gold fell sharply; As for the international gold price trend, it will definitely bottom out in the future, but it will still be depressed in a short time.
First of all, let's talk about why the national gold price has fallen sharply. The reason is that the Federal Reserve has implemented a policy of tightening monetary policy. Many people may not understand this, so I try to make it clear in simple language. Tightening money is also called deflation, that is, the monetary authorities tighten the current national monetary policy, usually reducing the liquidity of money and recovering some printed money. The impact is also obvious, that is, raising interest rates means that the money you deposit in the bank has more interest. In other words, compared with the safe haven of gold, the dollar became a better safe haven, so everyone sold gold and went to allin.
Let's talk about the future trend of international gold. Personally, I think it will collapse in the short term, because inflation in the United States is very serious now. The Fed's operation is to reduce inflation in the United States as much as possible, but inflation cannot be fixed in a short time, and it takes time to settle. Therefore, the Fed is likely to maintain this monetary tightening policy for a long time, so the US dollar is the best safe haven during this period, and gold still has no chance. However, for a long time, the international gold price will definitely bottom out, because the Fed's policy is radical and cannot be maintained for a long time. After the end of the policy, the international gold price will definitely bottom out, but it may not reach the current high level.
Generally speaking, the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has led to the US dollar becoming a safe-haven currency, which in turn has led to a sharp drop in the international gold price, and the international gold price will not change in a short time. Only when the Federal Reserve solves the inflation problem in the United States can international gold bottom out.