1. Analysis of RMB's external appreciation and internal depreciation Since the RMB appreciation mechanism against the US dollar started, the actual purchasing power of RMB seems to be moving in the opposite direction to the theoretical expectation. Why is this happening? I think this is related to the special internal and external environment of RMB appreciation. Two special factors, that RMB is not freely convertible and RMB has not yet become an international reserve currency, determine that the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar is limited to the appreciation of relative currencies (such as RMB against the US dollar), and it is difficult for RMB exchange rate appreciation to achieve the effect of enhancing international purchasing power. On the contrary, it will lead to the influx of foreign capital and the flood of liquidity, which in turn will lead to rising prices and internal depreciation of the RMB. 2. Analysis of inflation and RMB exchange rate appreciation in China. With the increasing liquidity of capital, the conflict between the central bank's monetary policy and the fixed exchange rate system is becoming more and more difficult to reconcile. Therefore, on July 2, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced that the RMB would appreciate by 2% against the US dollar, and the exchange rate system was no longer pegged to the US dollar, but a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The moderate appreciation of RMB exchange rate and more flexible market-oriented reform are of positive significance to China's monetary policy and macro-control. In the context of more free and frequent capital flows, a more flexible exchange rate can make China's monetary policy more autonomous. 3. Briefly describe the impact of special events on the exchange rate 1) The impact of the Soviet "8. 199 19" incident on the foreign exchange market began in the second half of 199 1, and the US dollar was weak against almost all major foreign exchanges. However, the "8. 19" incident in the Soviet Union temporarily strengthened the exchange rate of the US dollar. After the incident failed, the trend returned to its original state, and the US dollar continued to weaken until 1992+0. The fluctuation of the foreign exchange market before and after this incident shows the role of the US dollar as a "safe haven" currency. Before the "8. 19" incident, the news of political instability in the Soviet Union had been circulated in the foreign exchange market, and the US dollar rose slightly for seven consecutive days. However, no one expected that something would happen. On August 199 1 day, when the news of the "Soviet coup" reached the foreign exchange trading market, a large number of panic dollar buying immediately appeared. Take the pound as an example. In just a few minutes, the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar plummeted from 1 to 1.6633 US dollars, a decrease of 3. 1%. The next day, the foreign exchange market rose and fell with the news that Gorbachev had lost contact and the initiator seemed unable to control the situation. On the third day, the "8. 19" incident failed, and foreign exchange traders threw dollars in succession. The exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar rose from 1.6363 US dollars to 1.69 15 US dollars, soaring by 3.4%, which made the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar quickly exceed the high before the "8. 19" incident. Since then, the exchange rate of the US dollar against major foreign currencies such as the British pound has shown a downward trend. The reason why the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar stopped falling and rebounded when it fell to 1.6 130, technical analysts believe that this is the bottom of the average of the pound against the US dollar in the past five years, and it is unlikely that the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar will cross this line at one time. The failure of the "8. 19" incident in the Soviet Union further illustrates the supporting role of this point. (2) The impact of the British general election in April on the foreign exchange market 1992. There is still more than a month before the British election, and the foreign exchange market is beginning to be affected by this election. More than a month before the election, the foreign exchange market began to be affected by this election. Before the general election, Major, the Conservative candidate and current Prime Minister, had been lagging behind Neil kinnock, the Labour candidate, in the opinion polls. When Major was in power, he always pursued the privatization policy pursued by former Prime Minister and Conservative Margaret Thatcher since 1979. When the British Workers' Party was in power before 1980s, it adhered to the nationalization policy. If Kinnock wins the election, it may mean a change in British government policy. Although Kinnock, a worker, is a conservative in the party, it is still expected that Britain may return to the era of nationalization policy. Since Kinnock was ahead of Major in the opinion polls, from 65438 to1March 1992, two phenomena appeared in the British financial market. First, capitalists began to flow out gradually; Second, the exchange rate of the pound is gradually falling. Take the exchange rate of the pound against the mark as an example. The exchange rate of the pound began to fall from 1992 in February, from 1 at the end of February to the 2.96 mark on April 6, and then to the 2.83 mark. Sterling is a member currency of the European monetary system, which implements the "snake hole system". The upper limit of the pound against the mark is 3. 1320 mark, the lower limit is 2.7780 mark, and the middle price is 2.95 mark. However, since the pound joined the European monetary system at 1990, the foreign exchange market has always believed that the exchange rate of the pound is overvalued, so when the pound strengthens, there will be selling of the pound. In this British general election, Major fell behind in the opinion polls, and the foreign exchange market expected that the prospect of British policy was uncertain. Traders sold the pound one after another, making the exchange rate of the pound against the mark close to the lower limit set by the European monetary system. On election day, the pound fluctuated violently in the foreign exchange market. Judging from the exchange rate of the pound against the mark, the fluctuation range is 2%, reaching 600 points, and the fluctuation is very intense throughout the day. Two days before the election, some people in the foreign exchange market began to buy pounds, because they heard rumors in the opinion polls that Major had close ties with kinnock. On the day of the election, Kinnock's votes and poll results were still ahead of Major at first, and the foreign exchange market threw a lot of pounds. But before long, Major's votes began to rise, and foreign exchange traders rushed to sell other foreign exchange to buy pounds. The exchange rate of the pound against the mark rose rapidly, from 2.8477 mark to 2.9053 mark. After the general election, the foreign exchange market was flooded with good news of Major's victory, indicating that the British political situation was stable, the British economic prospects were promising, and the capital flowing overseas would return to Britain. The pound seems to have turned from weak to strong. Although it will rise all the way in the next month. Many forecasters and technical analysts predict that the exchange rate of the pound against the mark will rise to the upper limit of 3. 10 mark. Graphically, the exchange rate of the pound against the mark has remained high since the election, but it bounced back to 2.9500 mark every time it rose sharply. After hovering at a high level for nearly two months, the exchange rate of the pound against the mark finally began to fall in June of 1992. The trend of the British pound before and after the British election shows that the trend of foreign exchange rate may be maintained for some time with the support of market expectations. Before this expectation is broken, the market sometimes thinks that the short-term price trend is a reasonable trend, and the long-term equilibrium price trend will be revised accordingly. However, if the expectation of the foreign exchange market has not been confirmed, the foreign exchange price trend distorted by unexpected political and news events will return to the original trend, or even go further. When the foreign exchange market confirmed that Britain's economic prospects were not optimistic, the weakness of the pound became the general trend. Since June 1992, the exchange rate of the pound against the mark has been falling all the way. Even after the European monetary system crisis in September 1992, the exchange rate of the pound against the mark plummeted, forcing Britain to quit the European monetary system, and the exchange rate of the pound against the mark fell to 2.40 mark in June 1992. (3) The "Desert Storm" plan of the United States attacking Iraq has an impact on the foreign exchange market. Generally speaking, the turmoil in the world situation will make the dollar and gold soar. The "Desert Storm" project typically shows the role of dollars and gold as "safe havens" for funds. The "Desert Storm" plan of the United States attacking Iraq was implemented on 199 1 year 1 month 17. In the previous month, the price trend of the global foreign exchange market fluctuated around the speculation that the United States would fight or not. Whenever British government officials make tough remarks and say that they want to take military action, the dollar will rise sharply in one day; On the other hand, there are rumors of Franco-German mediation in the foreign exchange market. It seems that when things can be settled peacefully, the dollar will fall. 199 1, 1, 17 On the day the war broke out, the dollar also soared at first. Judging from the trend of GBP against USD, the exchange rate of GBP against USD fell to 1.8990. When the news that the United States quickly controlled the situation and was a shoo-in appeared, the "safe haven" role of the dollar immediately disappeared and the market began to sell dollars. The exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar plummeted to $65,438 +0.9353, and then rose all the way for a month. In fact, according to the military strength of the United States and Iraq, any rational conclusion will think that the United States will achieve the military goal of driving Iraq out of Kuwait. However, the foreign exchange market does not accept this rational judgment, but determines the price trend according to the psychology and expectations of traders. Only when the event is confirmed will the market price return to its original trend. The price of gold rose to 4 10 USD 1 oz, a decrease of 9.7%, which greatly exceeded people's expectations. Small investors in many markets have been "trapped" at once, and because of the continuous decline of gold, the losses of these investors are very heavy. (IV) The influence of regime change in Russia 1998 on the foreign exchange rate1998 March 23rd to September 1 1, the political situation in Russia was turbulent, which was highlighted by numerous contradictions and frictions between the top administrative authorities represented by the President and the State Duma, with more conflicts than cooperation. This has caused great damage to the Russian economy and caused the ruble exchange rate to fall sharply. 1On March 23rd, 998, Russian President Yeltsin suddenly issued an order to remove chernomyrdin from his post as prime minister. In his televised speech, he said that Chebyshev's government failed to solve a series of important social and economic problems, lacked vitality and initiative, lacked new ideas and methods, and the country needed an "economic government" that could achieve remarkable results. On the same day, Yeltsin appointed 35-year-old Minister of Fuel and Electricity Kiriyenko as Acting Prime Minister. On the issue of Kiriyenko's appointment, there are great differences between the state horse and President Yeltsin. After three contests, the Duma finally compromised. After Kiriyenko became prime minister, on the one hand, he sought help from the international community, on the other hand, he formulated an anti-crisis plan, including increasing taxes and rescheduling domestic and foreign debts. At the same time, he also proposed that the state should strengthen macro-control of the economy, strengthen its influence on the market economy, and strengthen the rectification of the tobacco and alcohol market. He stressed that we should be cautious about the privatization process in some economic fields, oppose the sale of large companies and enterprises such as oil, natural gas and electricity that are of strategic significance to the country, and stop mentioning the issue of private ownership of land. Advocate the industrial policy of product accumulation, and take the automobile industry, coal industry and military industry as the focus of development and rectification. At the same time, he also proposed to strengthen fiscal and taxation discipline and intensify the crackdown on tax evasion, especially group tax evasion. Although the Kiriyenko government put forward a series of policy propositions, the situation did not follow the planned pattern. Russia's economy has been hovering at a low ebb, with weak recovery and signs of deterioration. By the end of June 1998, Russia's GDP had dropped by 0.2%; The total industrial output value decreased by 0.6%; Agricultural failure; Long-term losses in the coal industry; Due to the sharp drop in world oil prices, the oil industry lost about $654.38+0.5 billion. Although1on July 20th, 1998, the International Monetary Fund approved to provide Russia with a loan of11400 million US dollars, which enabled Russia to obtain a total loan of 22.6 billion US dollars, it was "far from being hydrolyzed and almost thirsty". 1In late July 1998, a new round of financial crisis occurred in Russia. The stock market plunged 55% on 13 days in early August, 1998, and the trading volume shrank extremely. The national debt market is in a panic, and the yield of China bonds has soared; The exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar exceeded the floating ceiling set by the Russian central bank, and the rate of exchange rate decline was 1.5 times faster than that in early July, which greatly increased the pressure of ruble depreciation. In the face of a new round of financial crisis, the Kiriyenko government is in chaos. On August 198 and 17, it hastily decided to adjust the "foreign exchange corridor" from the original 6.2 roubles 1 USD to 6-9.5 roubles 1 USD; Short-term treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 to 2 cycles; Restrict the handling of large-scale foreign exchange business and prohibit foreign exchange outflows. The next day, the Russian foreign exchange market was in chaos, and trading stopped after 35 minutes of opening, while the selling price of the US dollar exchange point of Moscow Bank climbed all the way, reaching the upper limit of the "foreign exchange corridor" at noon, that is, 9.5 rubles 1 US dollar. Kiriyenko is optimistic that the devaluation of the ruble can ensure the balance of the national budget, promote imports and increase national fiscal revenue, which is the only way to solve Russian economic problems. However, many economists believe that the devaluation of the ruble will lead to bank bankruptcy, long-term inflation, and may lead to the complete collapse of the Russian economy, with serious political consequences. On August 2 1, the Russian State Duma held a special meeting. After discussing the severe economic and financial situation, we passed a resolution of no confidence in the government and unanimously demanded the resignation of the Kiriyenko government. At the same time, the Duma passed a resolution demanding that President Yeltsin "resign voluntarily". In this situation, in order to protect himself, President Yeltsin twice announced the dissolution of the government on the evening of August 23rd, and let Kiriyenko step down. After the dissolution of the Kiriyenko government, Yeltsin appointed chernomyrdin, who was dismissed by him on the same day five months ago, as Prime Minister of the interim government, and then nominated cheshier as Prime Minister. This time, the State Duma adopted an uncooperative attitude towards Yeltsin. The struggle between the President and Duma over the candidate for prime minister is more intense. Most members think that the Russian economic crisis is the "curse" laid by chernomyrdin during his tenure as prime minister, and do not agree with him as prime minister. Yeltsin's tough style also disgusted and dissatisfied political forces of various factions. Yeltsin dissolved the government twice, and the dispute with the Duma not only aggravated the crisis of the Russian regime, but also made the financial market worse and worse. The ruble exchange rate fell all the way, by 10% on August 25th, by 17.8% on September 2nd and by 26% on September 4th, the biggest one-day drop in history. Due to the collapse of the ruble, the inter-bank foreign exchange exchanges in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk were forced to close for many days. At the same time, the devaluation of the ruble has also caused soaring prices, especially the increase of imported goods. The prices of ham, tea and coffee imported and exported in the wholesale market rose by 40%, while vegetable oil rose by 50%. The price of imported gasoline has increased by 30% ~ 40%. Due to the chaotic price mechanism, the price difference of the same commodity in different places can reach 40%.