First, the advantages of Russian economic development
(1) The continuous rise in international oil prices has brought a good situation to Russian foreign trade.
Russia has a vast territory and abundant natural resources, and it is also the only country in the world that can be almost completely self-sufficient in natural resources. The proven resource reserves account for about 2 1% of the world's total resources, ranking first in the world. In particular, Russia is rich in oil resources, which can be exploited for more than 30 years.
In recent years, international oil prices have continued to rise. From 2002 to 2006, the international crude oil price index rose by 256%, and there is a continuous upward trend. This change is undoubtedly a strong support and promotion for Russia, which takes the energy industry as its main pillar industry. According to statistics, the output value of the energy industry accounts for about 30% of Russia's industrial output value, and this alone has created about 54% of the annual budget revenue and 45% of foreign exchange income for the government. As the international oil price continues to run at a high level, the international situation of Russia's energy industry will get better and better.
(2) Strong scientific and technological strength is an important guarantee for economic development.
Russia is a big country in education and scientific research. The former Soviet Union attached great importance to science, technology and education, which laid a solid foundation for Russia's scientific and technological strength. This advantage is particularly prominent in the high-tech aerospace field. The former Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite and visited the first astronaut in space. It can be said that the achievements of the former Soviet Union in the field of science and technology are the highest in the world. As an important part of the former Soviet Union, Russia has inherited considerable scientific research strength.
According to statistics, there are currently 858,000 researchers in Russia. Among them, 636,000 people work in national scientific research institutions, Academy of Sciences1.654,38+0.000 people. Russia's scientific and technological strength is very strong, mainly concentrated in basic theory, military industry and some heavy chemical industries. Among them, the weapon industry is a well-known product brand in Russia. Science and technology are the primary productive forces. Such a huge scientific research force has become a powerful driving force for Russia's economic development.
(c) Good mutually beneficial cooperation with neighboring countries has created an extremely favorable foreign economic situation for Russia.
Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, in order to realize the transition to liberalism and market economy as soon as possible, Russia's foreign policy tends to be one-sided with western developed countries. Instead of helping Russia get rid of the chaos and poverty brought about by the disintegration of the country, this policy has led to negative economic growth in Russia for many years and a sharp decline in people's living standards. Since President Putin came to power, the government has overcorrected its adjustment and its foreign policy has become more pragmatic. One of the biggest changes is the policy adjustment of neighboring countries, especially China. Russia is China's largest neighbor, and the economic development of the two countries has a great influence on both sides.
In recent years, the two countries have maintained important cooperative partnerships in the fields of economy, trade and energy, and the activities of "Year of the Country" between China and Russia have further strengthened the cultural and economic exchanges between the two countries. At the same time, the economies of the two countries are highly complementary, especially in energy. I believe that through sincere cooperation between the two sides, there will be a qualitative leap in this field. It can be said that good economic exchanges between Russia and China and other neighboring countries will bring good development and opportunities to the whole national economy.
Second, the disadvantages of Russian economic development
(A) excessive dependence on the energy industry has great limitations on Russia's economic development.
There is no doubt that the rapid improvement of Russia's economy is closely related to its full use of natural resources. Especially in recent years, the skyrocketing global energy prices have greatly helped this once great country, but relying on a single resource advantage cannot realize Russia's dream of rejuvenating the country. If a country wants to develop vigorously, it must rely on its own industrial system with world competitiveness, especially its own scientific and technological innovation ability, and it is impossible to enjoy success only by relying on existing natural resources.
Looking at the developed countries in the world, such as Britain, Switzerland, Japan and other countries, although they are very poor in natural resources, they have become economic powers with their own high-tech industries. At present, the price index of world resource products is rising rapidly, but there is no guarantee that the price of such popular goods will rise forever. Once the price drops rapidly, the defects of Russia's over-reliance on resource products will be exposed, which will also lead to the lack of alternative structure within the economy and lead to the premature end of the golden development period. In addition, the new scientific and technological revolution will also bring new alternative resources, and human dependence on natural resources will become smaller and smaller with the development of science and technology, which has been proved for thousands of years.
(2) Russia's serious debt crisis and budget deficit will greatly restrict the rapid economic development.
After nearly eight years of economic recovery, the Russian economy has now come out of the trough. However, with the dollarization of the national economy and the further deepening of capital outflow, the country's debt crisis and budget deficit are still very serious. At present, Russia still needs to repay more than 654.38 billion foreign debts every year. How to relieve the heavy foreign debt pressure is a big test for the government. On the other hand, due to the instability in Chechnya and Tbilisi, Russian military spending is also increasing. In terms of social expenditure, residents' wages and pensions have also increased year by year with economic development. Therefore, the Russian government still faces the problem of solving the huge budget deficit.
(3) The sharp drop in population makes the Russian economy face the embarrassment of a serious shortage of labor.
The population crisis has always been a thorny issue that puzzles the Russian government. According to the population trend of Russia in recent 20 years, it can be calculated that Russia is the country with the lowest birth rate in the world. Since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the population of Russia has decreased by nearly 3 million. The extremely low birth rate, the decrease of immigrant population and the persistently high suicide rate have all caused the Russian population to drop sharply. In addition, the problem of aging population structure in Russia is becoming more and more serious, and the young and middle-aged labor force is becoming more and more scarce. Russia originally had an enviable vast territory, but it was unable to develop and live because of the lack of sufficient labor. What's more, if the population decline trend is not effectively curbed, Russia may not have enough troops to defend its vast territory before the end of the 2 1 century. According to the data, according to the current level of economic development in Russia, the country still needs at least about 5 million laborers. It can be said that the increasingly serious population problem in Russia makes the Russian economy lack the necessary guarantee for sustainable development.
From the return of Russia's economic development to China's economic construction, we find that, as two neighboring countries with rapid development in the world, Russia and China have certain similarities in the process of economic development, and we can also see some problems in China's economic development through comparison. Therefore, the characteristics of Russian economic development have also played a positive role in China's economic construction.
Third, the influence of the characteristics of Russian economic development on China's economic construction.
(A) Russia's strong dependence on a single industry also appeared in the process of China's economic development, mainly manifested in China's excessive dependence on foreign capital.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements. In the whole process, foreign investment has been the main pillar of China's economic development. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded 500 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 40% of China's GDP, and these figures will continue to grow. This ratio is much higher than that of developed countries and countries in other parts of Asia. Excessive foreign exchange reserves will lead to potential inflation. The excessive growth of foreign capital will aggravate the risk of overheating. However, foreign-funded enterprises occupy a dominant position in the domestic market by virtue of their strong resources and capital advantages, and will gradually form a market monopoly, which will lead to the shrinking of local enterprises in China due to the lack of strong financial support and effective development. In view of the limitation and liquidity of international capital, with the continuous evolution of the international situation, international investors may collectively shift their strategic direction. Therefore, China's economy should gradually change its heavy dependence on foreign-funded enterprises and realize "self-reliance" in the true sense.
(2) As a country with vast territory and abundant resources, Russia can become a big energy exporter, but China cannot achieve energy self-sufficiency. The main reason is that the energy utilization rate in China is extremely low at present.
As we all know, the world is facing an unprecedented energy crisis. The rapid development of Russian economy in recent years is directly related to the worldwide energy shortage. Therefore, governments all over the world are taking various measures to continuously develop new energy sources and make greater efforts to reduce energy consumption per unit product. However, China is recognized as a country with high energy consumption per unit product, and the energy consumption per unit product and process in its industrial field is significantly different from the international advanced level. Such as electric power, steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, chemicals, light industry, textiles, etc., the average unit energy consumption of products in major energy-intensive industries is more than 40% higher than the international advanced level. Among them, the comprehensive energy consumption of cement is 45.3% higher and that of papermaking is 1.20%. At present, China's existing resource exploitation can't meet the needs of industrial development, and some energy needs to be imported. Nowadays, the international oil price continues to rise, which greatly increases the cost of unit products. Therefore, effectively improving energy utilization efficiency and making it reach the international advanced level is a major event related to the sustainable development of China's economy and society.
(3) The population problem is a serious and unavoidable problem in the economic development of China and Russia, and whether it can be solved reasonably is related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
Contrary to the crisis of Russian population decline, the most prominent population problem in China is overpopulation. China is the most populous developing country in the world, accounting for 2 1% of the world population. In order to control population growth, China implemented a strict family planning policy more than 30 years ago and achieved remarkable results. The implementation of this policy has enabled our country to have at least 400 million young people by 2007, which has alleviated the pressure brought by the rapid population growth to the national economic development to some extent. Therefore, some people have suggested that the problem of overpopulation in China has been effectively solved, but the fact is not optimistic. The low population growth is limited to some economically developed cities such as Shanghai, but not in the vast rural areas, and the phenomenon of "having more children" is also widespread. According to scientific calculation, the reasonable population matching with economic development and resource distribution in China should be 900 million. But at present, the population of China has already exceeded1300 million, which is undoubtedly a heavy burden to slow down the rapid economic development of China. In addition, the low quality of our population is also a "chronic disease" that has plagued the government for many years.
Relevant data show that the population quality of China is obviously lower than that of western developed countries. Especially the rural population, which accounts for more than 80% of the population, is a "poor area" with physical and cultural quality. The extremely backward level of culture and education and the deep-rooted feudal ideology make the population of these poor areas show a "high speed and low quality" growth trend year by year. At the same time, some developed cities with relatively high population quality show a trend of slow population growth and increasingly serious aging. In addition, the deep-rooted idea of "preferring boys over girls" throughout urban and rural areas has caused a serious imbalance in the sex ratio of the population in China: the number of boys is much higher than that of girls in primary and secondary schools. This serious imbalance in gender ratio will also produce a series of social problems. Efforts to improve the population environment and reasonably solve the population crisis are important issues related to the rapid economic development of China.
Note: The article was published in 2008 and is still valid. The second half, the enlightenment of the characteristics of Russian economic development to China's economic construction, is for reference only.