Gross domestic product:

It is the total value of all final products and services produced by a country within its territory within a certain period of time. Reflecting a country's overall economic situation is closely related to economic growth, which is regarded as "the most comprehensive economic dynamic indicator" by most western economists. It mainly consists of four parts: consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export. The steady growth of data shows that the economy is booming and the national income is increasing, which is beneficial to the exchange rate of the US dollar. On the contrary, the benefits will be weak. In general, if GDP declines for two consecutive quarters, it is regarded as a recession. The data is counted by the US Department of Commerce every quarter and divided into initial value, revised value and final value. Generally, the final value of last quarter will be announced at 2 1: 30 Beijing time at the end of each quarter.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (industrial production):

The total value of all industrial products produced by an industrial production department in a certain period of time. It accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Because the industrial sector employs a large number of workers, its changes have a great impact on the entire national economy and are positively related to the exchange rate. Especially represented by manufacturing industry. This data is calculated by the Federal Reserve, and it is around 2 15 per month or 22: 00 at night. Published on 15.

Unemployment rate:

The barometer of economic development is closely related to the economic cycle. The rising data shows that economic development is hindered, and vice versa. For most western countries, the unemployment rate is around 4%, but if it exceeds 9%, it means that the economy is in recession. The data is compiled by the US Department of Labor and released at 2 1: 30 on the first Friday of each month.

Trade deficit (trade deficit):

International trade is an important part of economic activities. When a country's exports exceed its imports, it is called a trade surplus; On the contrary, it is called a deficit. The trade data of the United States has been in a deficit state, with the emphasis on the expansion or contraction of the deficit. The expansion of the deficit is not good for the dollar, and vice versa. This data was compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and last month's figures were released at 2 1: 30 on a certain night in the middle and late months of each month.

Current account income and expenditure:

The current account is the main item in a country's balance sheet, which records the capital outflow and inflow between a country and foreign countries, including the import and export of goods/services, investment income, income from other goods and services and unilateral transfer. If it is positive, it is a surplus, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the other hand, it is not conducive to the national currency. The data is compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce and published at 2 1: 30 in the middle of each month.

Capital account income and expenditure:

It mainly describes a country's long-term and short-term capital flows, including long-term capital, illiquid short-term private capital, special drawing rights, errors and omissions, and liquid short-term private capital. Today, with the increasing internationalization and liberalization of finance, the influence of capital account is no less than that of current account. The higher the degree of financial market opening to the outside world, the greater the impact. The observation method of its influence on exchange rate is basically the same as that of current account.

Interest rate (interest rate):

Interest rate is the return of borrowing funds or the price of using funds. A country's interest rate has a direct impact on the currency exchange rate. Because of the high yield, the demand for money with high interest rate rises and the exchange rate appreciates; On the contrary, it depreciates. The federal funds rate in the United States is determined by the Federal Reserve meeting.

Producer price index (PPI):

It mainly measures the price changes of various commodities in different production stages. Rising data show that production is booming, inflation is likely to rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not conducive to the dollar. The data is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor and released at 2 1: 30 on the second Friday of each month.

Consumer price index (CPI):

The price change index based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives is the most important data when discussing inflation. As the data rises, inflation may rise, and the Fed tends to raise interest rates, which is beneficial to the dollar. On the other hand, it is not good for the dollar. However, inflation should be kept within a certain range. Too high (hyperinflation) or too low (deflation) is not conducive to the exchange rate. The data is compiled by the US Bureau of Labor and released at 23: 00 in the third week of each month.

Wholesale price index (WPI):

It is a price index compiled according to the weighted average price of bulk materials wholesale prices. Included products include raw materials, intermediate products, final products and import and export products, but not all kinds of services. When discussing inflation, one of the three most frequently mentioned price indexes is the same as CPI and PPI. Last month's data will be published in the middle of each month.

Leading indicators:

It consists of stock prices, consumer goods orders, weekly unemployment relief applications, building approval rules, consumer expectations, changes in manufacturers' delivery orders, money supply, sales performance, changes in prices of sensitive raw materials, orders for factories and equipment, and average working weeks, and is an indicator for observing economic trends in the next 6- 12 months. Good data, rising exchange rate; On the contrary, it will fall.

Personal income:

The sum of personal income representing various sources of income. Including wages and salaries, social welfare, expenditure and savings, dividend income, etc. The increase in data means that the economy is improving and consumption may increase, which is beneficial to the domestic currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable. Prepared by the Bureau of Economic Research and released at 2 1: 30 on the first day of each month.

Commercial inventory (inventory):

Including factory inventory, wholesale inventory and retail inventory. Mainly used to evaluate the production cycle. If the inventory is lower than the appropriate level, it will increase production, improve the economy and benefit the currency; On the contrary, it is unfavorable. The data is compiled by the US Department of Commerce and released at 2 1: 30 or 23: 00 in the middle of each month.

Purchasing Manager Index (Purchasing Management Index):

It is an important indicator to measure the manufacturing industry. Investigate manufacturing industry from production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports. The data takes 50 as the dividing point between strength and weakness, indicating that the improvement of manufacturing industry is beneficial to the currency; On the contrary, it means recession, which is not good for the currency. The data is compiled by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and released at 23: 00 on the first day of each month.

Durable goods order:

The so-called durable wealth refers to heavy industrial products such as automobiles and airplanes, and non-expendable property such as manufacturing capital wealth. The same is true of electrical appliances and other things. Durable goods orders represent the manufacturer's production situation in the next month, and the data is positively related to the currency exchange rate, but we should pay attention to the proportion of its defense orders. Orders for durable goods are counted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and are generally announced at 2 1: 30 or 23: 00 on the evening of the 22nd to 25th of each month.

Equipment utilization rate (capacity utilization rate):

It is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. It covers eight projects including production, mining, public utilities, durable goods, non-durable goods, basic metal industry, automobile and minivan industry and gasoline. Represents the capacity utilization degree of the above industries. When the equipment utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to the limit, and the pressure of inflation will rise rapidly with the inability of production capacity, which is beneficial to the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to rise.

On the other hand, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that the equipment is idle too much, and the economy is in recession, which is not good for the US dollar when the market expects interest rates to drop. Last month's data will be published in the middle of each month.

Housing operating rate:

Generally speaking, new housing construction is divided into two types, individual housing and group housing. In theory, the increase in housing starts and building permits is more favorable to the US dollar, but other economic data should be considered comprehensively. It will be released every month from June 16 to June 19.

Macroeconomic indicators

Use one or several indicators to reflect the economic operation. Commonly used macroeconomic indicators are:

1. Consumer price index, abbreviated as CPI in English, is an indicator reflecting the price changes of products and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation.

2. Producer price index is abbreviated as PPI. PPI is an indicator to measure the trend and degree of ex-factory price changes of industrial enterprises, an important economic indicator to reflect the price changes in the production field in a certain period, and an important basis for formulating relevant economic policies and national economic accounting.

3. Gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the total added value of various sectors of the national economy in a certain period of time in a country or region. This indicator is the most concerned economic statistical data in macroeconomics, because it is considered as the most important indicator to measure the development of national economy.

4. Proportion of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry in GDP. The primary industry refers to planting and aquaculture. Also known as "big agriculture". The secondary industry refers to the extractive industry, manufacturing industry and construction industry. The tertiary industry refers to other industries except the primary and secondary industries. Including transportation, warehousing and postal services, information transmission, computer services and software, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, finance, real estate, leasing and business services, residential services and other services, education, health, social security and social welfare.

5. Investment in fixed assets is the workload of building and purchasing fixed assets expressed in money, and it is a comprehensive index reflecting the scale, speed, proportion and use direction of investment in fixed assets. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society can be divided into state-owned, collective, individual, joint venture, joint-stock system, foreign businessmen, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan businessmen and others according to economic types. According to the management channels, the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society is divided into four parts: capital construction, renovation, real estate development investment and other fixed assets investment.

6. Social retail goods refer to the retail sales of consumer goods from wholesale and retail trade, catering, manufacturing and other industries of various economic types to urban and rural residents and social groups and the retail sales from farmers to non-agricultural residents. Reflect the improvement of people's material and cultural living standards in a certain period, the realization degree of social commodity purchasing power, and the scale of retail and market. It is an important material for studying people's living standards, purchasing power of social retail commodities, social production, currency circulation and price development trends.

7. Money stock or circulation. M0= cash in circulation; Narrow money (M 1)=M0+ corporate demand deposits+government organizations and military deposits+rural deposits+credit card deposits held by individuals; Broad money (M2)=M 1+ savings deposits of urban and rural residents+corporate time deposits+trust deposits+other deposits. M 1 reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy; M2 not only reflects the actual purchasing power, but also reflects the potential purchasing power. If the growth rate of M 1 is fast and the consumption and terminal markets are active, inflation will occur; If M2 grows faster, the investment and intermediary market will be active. There is an asset bubble.

8. Foreign exchange reserves, also known as foreign exchange reserves, refer to the foreign exchange part of the international reserve assets held by a government, that is, the creditor's rights held by a government in foreign currency. It is an asset held by the national monetary authority and can be converted into foreign currency at any time. In a narrow sense, foreign exchange reserves refer to a country's foreign exchange accumulation; Broadly speaking, foreign exchange reserves refer to assets denominated in foreign exchange, including cash, gold and foreign securities. Foreign exchange reserve is an important part of a country's international liquidity, which has an important influence on balancing international payments and stabilizing exchange rate.

9. Speculative short-term capital, also known as speculative capital or hot money or unknown funds, is short-term speculative capital that flows rapidly in the international financial market only for the pursuit of the highest return and the lowest risk. In the foreign exchange market, this kind of speculative funds often convert the domestic currency with depreciation tendency into the currency with appreciation tendency, which increases the instability of the foreign exchange market. Therefore, as long as the expectation psychology exists, only by letting the appreciating currency fluctuate greatly or implementing foreign exchange control can this speculative capital flow be stopped.

10. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an investment activity in which a country's investors invest capital or other factors of production across borders for the purpose of obtaining profits or scarce factors of production.

1 1. Trade surplus or deficit. In a certain period of time (usually calculated on an annual basis), both sides of the trade buy and sell various commodities with each other. If Party A's export volume is greater than Party B's, or Party A's import volume is less than Party B's, the difference between them is called Party A's trade surplus and Party B's trade deficit. ..

12. industrial added value refers to the final result of industrial production activities expressed in monetary form by industrial enterprises during the reporting period; It is the total result of all production activities of industrial enterprises after deducting the value of material products and services consumed or transferred in the production process; It is a newly added value in the production process of industrial enterprises. The sum of the added value of each department is the gross domestic product, which reflects the sum of the market value of the final products and services produced and provided by a country (region) in a certain period of time.

Macroeconomic indicators

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis of macroeconomic indicators are two main analytical methods used in foreign exchange investment. Because fundamentals greatly affect the long-term exchange rate movement direction, fundamental analysis has become an indispensable analysis tool for medium and long-term investors. However, due to the huge and complex coverage of fundamental analysis, many investors are disappointed with it. The main contents of this series are: interpretation of various economic indicators and data, overview of economic policies, summary of government statements and positions, and government intervention. The most direct manifestation of economic changes is the various economic data and indicators released by the government. The publication of some important economic data will make the market fluctuate greatly, and may even change the short-term trend of the market. We will start with interpreting economic data and indicators to help investors correctly understand, analyze and judge these data.

What are the main economic indicators to judge the macroeconomic situation?

Four common economic indicators are: gross national product, inflation, employment rate and balance of payments.

GNP for short is composed of gross domestic product and international income. The most commonly used economic indicators to judge a country's macroeconomic situation in the world are GDP and economic growth rate (GDP growth rate).

Inflation refers to the rise of the general price level measured by a certain price index. In order to curb inflation, the government often adopts tight monetary and fiscal policies. As far as the macroeconomic situation is concerned, the best state is moderate inflation, that is, maintaining moderate inflation while the economy is growing at a high speed.

Employment rate will also be cited as unemployment rate, which is often determined by economic growth rate and inflation rate. The government often formulates various financial policies according to the employment rate, which will have a direct and indirect impact on the stock market.

Balance of payments is a record of goods, services and financial assets transactions between a country and other countries in a certain period of time. Balance of payments includes current account balance and capital account balance. Current account revenue and expenditure mainly include trade, labor services and unilateral transfer. The most direct influence of a country's balance of payments is the exchange rate. A country's balance of payments surplus, the country's currency is strong, there is potential for appreciation; On the contrary, a long-term deficit will lead to a soft currency, and the currency may depreciate.

American economic indicators

The economic rebound of American economic indicators can be reflected by three English letters: "V", "U" and "L". Among them, V-shape means that the economy will rebound quickly after a rapid slowdown; The "U" type mainly describes that after the rapid economic decline, it will linger at a low level for a while and then recover strongly; As for the "L" shape, it is the last thing I want to see. It means that after the rapid economic slowdown in the United States, the position of the long-term economy will linger, and eventually "V", "U" and "L" will rebound? In fact, you can understand it through some economic indicators. The direction of the American economy,

Indicators include: gross domestic product (GDP), National Purchasing Managers Index (NPMS), Consumer Confidence Index (CCl) and unemployment rate. Although some of these indicators are lagging data (such as GDP, unemployment rate, etc. ), some are indicators of leading economy (such as NPMS and CCl).

1. Real GDP refers to the total value of assets, products and services produced by American labor force. Capital reflects the flow of income and expenditure at the same time, providing extensive information about supply and demand. Because it takes a long time to collect data, this data is usually published in stages, which is divided into three versions: quick report, initial repair and final repair: the mystery behind it: it also reflects the different stages of the economy in the cycle, so as to understand the latest development of the economy.

2. National Purchasing Managers Survey The index was compiled by the Business Survey Committee of the National Purchasing Managers Association of the United States. The Committee will send questionnaires to more than 250 national purchasing managers every month, and the members who are surveyed will provide information on various manufacturing activities. The questionnaire mainly includes five aspects: production, new orders, material inventory, employment level and delivery performance of retailers (suppliers), thus reflecting the current situation of manufacturing industry. The mystery behind it: according to the definition of the national purchasing managers index, if the overall index exceeds 50, it means that the manufacturing industry is in an expanding state; If the index is below 50, it means that the manufacturing industry is shrinking. Therefore, the National Purchasing Managers Index summarizes the current situation, employment and price performance of the overall manufacturing industry. However, it should be noted that the data itself is not calculated according to the real price or employment change data, but only a survey of purchasing managers' opinions; Therefore, the index can only be regarded as a trend survey and reference, rather than the real range of economic changes:

3. consumer confidence index The Consumer Confidence Index is published once a month, and about 5,000 families will be interviewed to ask about the economic situation, employment prospects, consumption plans, etc., so as to determine this index, which is based on10/00 set in 1985. The mystery behind it: this index has a strong opposite relationship with the unemployment rate. The higher the index, the lower the unemployment rate, and vice versa. The biggest mystery of the index is not only inversely proportional to the unemployment rate, but also reflects the confidence of consumers, whether they are pessimistic or optimistic about the short-term economic prospects.

4. Unemployment rate investigators collect unemployment rate by telephone sampling.

If the interviewee says that he was interested in the job in the past two weeks, but didn't get the job, it can be defined as unemployment. The unemployment rate is usually calculated by the percentage of the unemployed population to the total working population, but the calculation method of the total working population has different definitions in different countries.

The mystery behind it: the unemployment rate can provide guidance for the inflation trend. When the unemployment rate continues to decline due to labor shortage, there will be upward pressure on wages, and with the increase of production costs, prices will also rise accordingly; When analyzing these data, it must be noted that these figures may be affected by some factors, such as unusual weather or some industrial disputes. There are also some data related to the unemployment rate, such as: non-agricultural payro 1 1 changes in the number of employed people and the average hourly wage of workers. Non-farm jobs are data reflecting the performance of American industry and service industry, thus reflecting the local economic performance and labor market. As for the average hourly wage of workers, it mainly refers to the average hourly wage of non-agricultural employees, which is the best indicator to measure salary inflation, so as to predict personal income. In the past, when the economy was booming, this data was very important for measuring inflation, but now the economic slowdown makes the changes in unemployment rate and non-agricultural jobs more important.

Economic indicators are fragments of financial and economic data released by government agencies or private institutions. These statistics are released to the public regularly. So in the financial market, almost everyone will rely on these data. When many investments respond to this information, economic indicators usually have great potential to produce transactions and price changes. Although on the surface, it seems that mastering economically advanced procedures will bring greater convenience to analysis, and then trading under the full understanding of the information provided by economic indicators, several simple rules mean that it is necessary to track institutions and make trading decisions based on these data.

leading indicators

Gross national product-the sum of all products and services produced by domestic or foreign companies. GDP shows the speed of a country's economic growth (or recession) and is considered as the most important indicator of economic output and growth.

Industrial productivity-it is a continuous weighted measure of the output changes of factories, mining and public utilities in a country, which is equivalent to measuring its industrial production capacity and what available resources can be used for industry, mining and public utilities. (usually refers to the use efficiency), the manufacturing sector can affect the economy of14, and the use efficiency provides an evaluation of how much production capacity is being used.

Purchasing Managers Index-American Purchasing Managers Association (NAPM), now called Supply Management Association, publishes a comprehensive index every month, including the domestic manufacturing situation and new orders for housing construction. Production, supplier delivery time, orders, inventory, price, employment, export orders and import orders are the following indexes to distinguish manufacturing from non-manufacturing.

Product price index (PPI)-Product price index is an index to measure the price change of manufacturing industry, which measures the average change of sales price, that is, the price of products accepted by domestic producers for reproduction. They include manufacturing, mining, agriculture and power industry. PPIS, which is usually used for economic analysis, refers to finished products, semi-finished products and unprocessed products.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)-CPI is the average price level of a basket of food and services paid by urban consumers (80% of the population). It reports that there are more than 200 price changes. CPI usually includes fees and taxes of various users, which are directly related to the prices of specific products and services.

Durable goods-when ordering durable goods, measure the number of orders received by domestic manufacturers for goods to be delivered or in the future. Durable products are defined as products that will continue to be used for a period of time (more than 3 years), during which the service for them will continue.

Employment Cost Index (ECI)-measures the number of jobs provided by more than 500 industries in all states and 255 regions. Employment estimation is based on the market regulation of large enterprises. Moreover, the number of full-time or part-time paid employees in domestic enterprises and governments is calculated.

Retail sales-it is a timely indicator of the main consumption patterns of consumers and will be adjusted due to normal seasonal changes, holidays and trading days. Retail sales include sales of durable goods and non-durable goods, as well as service tax and inevitable expenses added to goods, but do not include sales tax borne by consumers.

New Housing Report-The New Housing Report measures the number of new housing units related to residence each month. The beginning of construction refers to the beginning of foundation excavation. At the same time, it is mainly composed of residential building, and residential building is the first factor to respond to interest rate changes. If represented graphically, the response to the change of starting/accepting interest rate may be Gu Feng near the bottom. To analyze and pay attention to the percentage of price change last month, a report will be released in the middle of next month.