2003- 1 1-3 business friends
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Guo Shuqing, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that there are still some problems in the great cause of reform and opening up, and it is urgent to deepen the reform. First of all, the allocation and utilization efficiency of economic resources needs to be improved. China's economic growth is very fast, but the resources we have invested are probably scarce, and the sustainable structure of economic growth is unreasonable. Second, we need to overcome the fragility of the financial system. Finance is the core that affects the economy. The difficulty lies not in solving the 25% non-performing loans, but in how we can ensure that there will not be so many non-performing loans in the future. Third, there is an urgent need for a mature social security system that adapts to the rapidly developing economy. Fourthly, we must set up an effective legal system to ensure market unification. The current judicial system has many defects in ensuring the unity of the market, which is set according to the administrative level. Economic disputes involving provinces and cities are judged by courts in different regions, which easily leads to local protectionism. Fifth, we should guarantee the talent cultivation and knowledge innovation in our country from the system. You know, at present, the average education level of China citizens is three to four years less than the world average. Sixth, we should make social service fields and institutions full of vitality. We say that enterprise reform is the central issue, but the reform of public institutions is as important as enterprise reform. There are more than 30 million people in public institutions in China. Only by solving the financial problems can the reform of public institutions be the top priority. Seventh, the way of government management needs modernization. Eighth, improve and perfect the community management system. This is not just a social problem. Who will take care of street sanitation? What about many civil disputes? Including the construction of the credit system, but also the contribution of all sectors of society.
Eight challenges facing China.
Editor's Note: In February, 2002, Lehman Brothers (ranked166th among the top 500 companies in the world in 2000) published a special report entitled "China: Understanding China's economic and market conditions and holding unlimited business opportunities". The special report was written by John Llewellyn, the company's first economist. Not long ago, the company held a press conference in Beijing, which is now released as follows for your reference.
It is predicted that by 2030, China will become the second largest economy in the world.
1820 years ago was a long historical period, and China was once the largest economy in the world. In the next 100 years, China experienced many setbacks and retrogression, and the proportion of its GDP in the world's total quota dropped from 30% in 1820 to 4.5% in 1950. However, with the reform and opening up, China has achieved rapid economic growth and great success.
The world economy and economic integration have accelerated. China's economy is facing new opportunities and challenges under the new situation of China's entry into WTO, especially in the next two years, when the reform of financial industry and state-owned enterprises has not been completed and the urbanization process is accelerating, China will experience painful economic adjustment. The expansion of China's opening to the outside world and the extensive participation of international companies in China's business will greatly change the competition in China's domestic market and increase the complexity and difficulty of China's economic and trade operation.
However, as long as China can steadily push forward various reforms and improve the level of global economic operation, it will be able to turn challenges into great vitality to promote development and development. It is predicted that the goal of stable development and development will increase by 6% every year in the next 20 years. If this goal of steady development can be achieved, by 2030, China's economic aggregate will surpass that of Japan and become the second largest economy in the world after the United States.
China is challenging the world.
Dr. Kissinger once wrote that the foundation of many years has been turned into fruit, and China has begun to explore and play a wider role in international affairs. If China can maintain its domestic cohesion, it will notice that it is a major force and challenge the world more and more economically and politically with greater strength. Although some countries and regions are worried about this change in China, China, as a political and economic power, does not necessarily threaten the property of other countries. If we take the same stand in the fight against terrorism, China has the hope and ability to become a healthy partner.
In the past, the people of China were satisfied with the success of economic reform, but the demand and pressure for political reform were gradually increasing. We should pay attention to avoid slowing down the pace of economic reform. Since 1978, China has promoted fundamental changes in its economic and social systems while its political system is relatively stable. For example, if some Asian countries benefit from economic aid, residents who benefit from economic aid reform may be able to temporarily alleviate more political governance needs, but in the long run, the pressure of political governance reform will be unstoppable: on the one hand, the integration of China's economic aid and world economic aid will further increase the demand for political governance reform; On the other hand, slowing down the pace of economic restructuring and economic growth may also increase the pressure of political restructuring, and accelerating political restructuring before maintaining stable economic growth may be a "correct" choice.
From 65438 to 0992, China government has made remarkable achievements in economy, economy and management, but there are some potential risks in the process of reform under the new situation, and the order control system of reform is more important. Since then, China has faced many challenges, but the China administration has achieved remarkable results, such as soft landing under the trend of high inflation, global success brought by the Asian financial crisis, high savings rate, large use of foreign capital, and steady economic growth. The globalization of economic development and the acceleration of economic development in China are beneficial to economic development, but they also pose challenges. Out of control in the process of accelerating reform may lead to high unemployment rate and social unrest; Slowing down the pace of reform can also stimulate spears and shields that can only pass reform resolutions, which is dangerous and politically stable. Gradual reform process and coordinated political policy operation are the necessary choices for China government to avoid the above unstable factors. The opening up of the financial sector and the reform of RMB exchange rate in capital account are important issues facing China in the near future. However, the teaching and training of the Asian financial crisis show that under the condition that the domestic economic articles are not yet mature, excessive self-reliance may also lead to the crisis. China should slow down the opening of this project, and RMB exchange will wait until 2005 at the earliest. In a word, in order to deepen the economic reform and the economic reform put forward before political stability, China should gradually promote the reform in an orderly and harmonious way.
China itself faces challenges.
In order to maintain a sustained and stable economic development exhibition, China must face eight challenges, five of which come from the economic aspect and three from the political aspect. These eight challenges are:
First, the capital increase of financial institutions needs to increase rapidly. Non-performing loans of state-owned banks (including non-performing assets received by asset management companies) account for 40% of the total loans of the whole department, and the activities of economic transportation banks are strictly controlled. In order to eliminate bad debts and promote the reform of the financial system, the China municipal government needs to pay the corresponding cost, which is equivalent to 29% of the pre-project GDP, and can be as high as 54% in the worst case.
In order to improve the financial system and its operating mechanism, China should speed up the reform of the financial system, speed up the management of non-performing loans with enough courage while preventing the increase of non-performing loans, guide the fair and orderly competition of the financial system as soon as possible, and steadily realize the opening and marketization of the capital market.
Second, the reorganization of state-owned enterprises may increase the unemployment rate. In order to fundamentally change the situation that inefficient state-owned enterprises still rely on government subsidies and low-interest loans from banks, we must vigorously promote the reform and restructuring of state-owned enterprises. But it can bring the unemployment rate in cities and cities as high as 13%, leading to danger and social stability.
In order to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, it is necessary to continue the Bankruptcy Law and other relevant laws and regulations, establish a "survival of the fittest" mechanism in the new competition bureau, and make full use of capital, production, management and stock market in the corporate governance structure.
Third, China's entry into the WTO will cost a whole generation through economic adjustment. After China's entry into WTO, fierce international competition will bring many problems, such as the increase of production stoppage and unemployment rate, which will greatly increase the complexity and difficulty of foreign economic and trade.
After China's entry into WTO, we must strive to improve the economy and economic mobility under the new competitive situation and be good at stimulating the competitive vitality brought about by development and opening up.
Fourth, we must narrow the development differences between regions. According to the World Bank's forecast, with the development of China's economy, the transfer of agricultural labor force to non-agricultural sectors will accelerate, and the proportion of agricultural labor force in the total social labor force will drop from 48% now to 25% in 2020. This will be the development process of a social club with the adjustment of township structure and regional structure, and it will face many challenges such as urbanization of agricultural villages.
In order to effectively promote the adjustment of urban and rural structure, we must speed up the development of the western region, reform the agricultural industry and rural industrialization, effectively control the income gap between urban and rural residents and the rising trend of urban unemployment rate, and ensure social stability.
Fifth, we should strengthen the social security system. With the divestiture of state-owned enterprises and the deepening of functional transformation, pension, medical care, education, housing and employment must be guaranteed by the government and society. The fierce competition after China's entry into WTO will also promote the "survival of the fittest", thus making it more necessary and urgent to establish and improve social protection barriers.
To control financial risks, we must first open the insurance market and capital market, establish and improve the insurance mechanism of the government and the industrial and commercial society, and form an organic system of social insurance.
Sixth, clubs should seek higher transparency and strengthen the responsibility system. With the participation of the People's Association and the maturity of its consciousness, all walks of life in the association are constantly demanding the transparency of information and the system of responsibility and responsibility, such as insisting on public affairs and severely punishing corruption and failure. How to combine people's political participation with the effective operation of social economy is an important issue to be solved to change group strength and ensure social stability.
Seventh, the political, economic and economic relations between Chinese mainland and Taiwan Bay run counter to each other.
The entry of Chinese mainland and Taiwan Bay into WTO has created favorable conditions for further expanding cross-strait economic and trade exchanges, but the potential of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation is far from being fully developed, and there is still a big gap between the words and deeds of the Taiwan Bay authorities and the "One China". The successful coordination of the political, economic and economic relations between the mainland and Taiwan Bay is an important factor affecting the cross-strait economic and trade development and the stability of the mainland.
Eighth, China is adopting a more active foreign policy. After the "9. 1 1" incident, China adopted a more extreme foreign policy and explicitly opposed any form of fear, which laid a good foundation for the healthy development of Sino-US relations today. Although there are frictions and twists and turns in Sino-US relations, including the Taiwan Bay issue, the general trend is developing. As a big country, how to deal with complicated and changeable international affairs, win the trust and support of the wider international community, and thus create a good environment for economic stability, development and development, is a new test that China is facing after its international status is constantly improving.
Let the undertaker and critics feel scared.
With the acceleration of economic globalization, China faces many challenges in its reform, opening up and economic development. When you can't succeed, you must fight against the economy, and the factors of political instability will increase; And when you can't succeed, you must challenge politics, which will also bring unfavorable economic and economic situation.
Success depends on various challenges. In the next 20 years, you should maintain an average annual growth rate of about 6%, which depends not only on the direction of reform, but also on the speed of reform. In recent years, international economic development has pointed out that the reform of material system and the growth of economic development should be coordinated with each other. Otherwise, it may bring severe economic shocks to Mexico, emerging Asian countries and regions, and Russia. , or the long-term decline and low charm of economic development as it is now.
In the case that the space and feasibility of contradictions moving backward in the process of economic development are extremely limited, the biggest risk of China's economic development in the future is to delay the reform. The delay of the necessary leather reform will increase the number of risks and even bring irreparable losses. If China delays the reform of the financial system, it will not only help the economy, but also lead to the public debt equivalent to 100% of GDP by 20 10. However, on the basis of absorbing the current teachings of history and other countries, China's leaders will unswervingly push forward the reform.
Although China will encounter some setbacks in the process of reform and gradually strengthen the reform of political system, it can realize the fundamental transformation from planned economy system to market economy system in a stable political situation. And in the foreseeable future, it will continue to develop, so as to turn the hard-won "great possibility" of two centuries into reality.
China's remarkable achievements not only surprised some foreign winners, but also puzzled many critics.