First, the European and American stock markets rise and fall
Description: Hang Seng Index trades all over the world. Due to the time difference, the fluctuation of European and American stock markets had a great influence on the Hang Seng Index, especially on Nasdaq, S&P and Dow Jones.
Impact: The Hang Seng Index is positively correlated with European and American stock markets. If Europe and America rise sharply, it will benefit Hang Seng, and vice versa.
Second, China economic data
Data interpretation: GDP, CPI, benchmark interest rate of banks, deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions. It is closely related to the evaluation of China's domestic economic situation and monetary policy, and will spread to Hongkong accordingly.
Impact: Higher corresponding indicators will benefit China's economy and Hang Seng Index, and vice versa.
Third, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets.
The data shows that among the 33 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index, Chinese mainland enterprises occupy most of the weight, and the overall situation of the A-share market has an increasing influence on the Hang Seng Index. Usually, when trading the Hang Seng Index, we should refer to the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets on that day.
Impact: Generally speaking, there is a positive correlation between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, but the correlation will vary from time to time due to different valuation levels and trading patterns.
Four. Operating conditions of constituent stock enterprises
Data Interpretation: The Hang Seng Index is calculated by the stock prices of 33 selected heavyweights, among which the performance of financial stocks such as HSBC, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, Sinopec, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of China has a great influence on the Hang Seng Index. The publication of quarterly and annual financial statements, major acquisitions, asset restructuring and bad debts of such companies will all affect the Hang Seng Index.
Impact: The bad financial data of the heavyweights will cause the stock price of the corresponding enterprises to plummet, and the Hang Seng Index will fall, and vice versa.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) dollar index and Federal Reserve's monetary policy
Data interpretation: The Hong Kong dollar is closely linked to the US dollar. If the dollar appreciates, the Hong Kong dollar will also appreciate, and vice versa. Monetary easing and tightening policies of the Federal Reserve usually have the same impact on Hong Kong. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate hike policy and the impact of the drastic changes in the exchange rates of the euro and the yen on the US dollar index.
Impact: The Fed implements monetary tightening policies, such as raising interest rates. If the US dollar index strengthens, it will be bad for Hang Seng; The dollar index weighted currency fell sharply, and the dollar index rose, which was also bad for the Hang Seng Index.
Sixth, the real estate situation.
The data shows that Hong Kong's economy is obviously influenced by the real estate industry, and the prosperity of China's real estate industry has a close influence on its peers in Hong Kong, which in turn affects the Hang Seng Index.
Impact: If the real estate industry data improves, house prices rise and the operating rate rises, it will benefit Hang Seng; Shrinking sales data and falling house prices are not good for Hang Seng.
Seven. Political factor
Information: Hong Kong experienced nearly 100 years of colonial rule, with a high degree of democratization. After the reunification, it was gradually influenced by mainland policies, and political factors directly affected the economy, especially the central government's policies on Hong Kong's taxation and financial industry.
Impact: Strengthening control will be bad for the Hang Seng Index, while introducing policies to stimulate the financial industry will be good for Hang Seng.
VIII. Other factors
Special natural disasters, wars or diseases are also one of the risks in today's financial market. For example, in 2002, SARS broke out in Hong Kong, which claimed many lives and caused panic. It also caused Hong Kong stocks to plummet to the lowest point in recent years. However, due to the effective control of the epidemic, the stock price began to rebound from the low point.