On the evening of the same day, the central bank once again offered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio tool. Different from the two increases last year, the central bank lowered the reserve ratio from 9% to 8% (effective from May 15) to ease the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation. After that, the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar rebounded slightly, reaching 6.5774 at 2 1 times.
What is the reason for the sharp decline of RMB against the US dollar? What impact does it have on the stock market and foreign trade export enterprises? Will it continue to depreciate in the future?
Offshore RMB has fallen by more than 2000 basis points in the past week. Triggers include the epidemic and the beginning of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle.
6.4, 6.5, 6.6 ... In the past week, the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar has continuously fallen below three barriers, from 6.3784 opened in April 19 to 6.6 on April 25, falling by more than 2,000 basis points to the lowest level since June1kloc-0/2020; Although the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar did not fall below 6.6, it also fell from 6.3690 at the opening on April 19 to 6.5544 at the closing on April 25th, with a drop of more than 1800 basis points. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been lowered for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative reduction of 1 189 basis points.
Regarding the recent continuous correction of RMB exchange rate, Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, told the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter that the reasons include the Fed's interest rate hike cycle and the impact of the weakening global trade environment on China's exports.
"During the epidemic (two years ago), we benefited a lot from trade exports, and we have been supported by large-scale exports, so the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar can be maintained at around 6.4. Since the end of last year, the spread between China and the United States has gradually narrowed (even upside down). Coupled with the weakening of the global trade environment, export expectations in many overseas places have been lowered, so many currencies including the RMB have depreciated. " Fu Peng said.
CICC's research report analyzes that the high energy prices and the increase in foreign exchange purchases by importers are also short-term triggers for the rapid decline of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar. Another institutional source said that under the background of the spread of domestic epidemic, supply chain disturbance and the official opening of the interest rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, the RMB exchange rate may further release the depreciation pressure.
However, some experts said that the recent fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is a market correction. Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, pointed out that in early March, the RMB exchange rate hit a four-year high, and there were signs of adjustment since mid-March. At that time, the stock market supervision was strengthened, the domestic epidemic rebounded sharply, and the RMB exchange rate quickly adjusted back. Both the adjustment in the middle and late March and the recent adjustment are driven by the offshore market. The offshore RMB exchange rate continues to be weak relative to the onshore RMB exchange rate, which reflects that foreign investors purchase foreign exchange in the offshore market after reducing their domestic RMB financial assets, which promotes the offshore RMB to weaken.
The impact on A shares is controllable, and many listed companies have dealt with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
Recently, A shares have also been greatly adjusted. Is it related to the decline of RMB exchange rate? CICC believes that exchange rate adjustment may not be the reason for the adjustment of the stock market, and the trend of the stock market still depends mainly on the economic fundamentals of China. Industrial Securities believes that in the context of the recent rapid depreciation of the exchange rate, there is no obvious foreign capital outflow in the stock market; When the performance of A shares is weak, the expected disturbance of exchange rate depreciation on A shares is greater than the actual impact.
Exchange rate fluctuation is also related to the cost of foreign trade enterprises. Recently, there have been many problems about RMB exchange rate depreciation in the interactive platform of investor relations of listed companies.
Some companies say that short-term exchange rate fluctuations have limited impact on themselves. For example, Aerospace Rainbow (002389) said that RMB depreciation has no negative impact on the company's import and export business. The company has a certain scale of foreign currency assets and will actively adopt hedging strategies to deal with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the future. Yonghe Zhikong (002795) said that signing a forward settlement agreement with the bank to lock in the future settlement exchange rate can effectively stabilize some exchange rate fluctuation risks; At the same time, when adjusting the price with customers, the company will consider the influence of exchange rate fluctuation and raw material price fluctuation. The short-term fluctuation of exchange rate has limited influence on the long-term development of the company.
Some companies also said that it is not yet possible to quantify the specific impact. For example, Haineng Industry (300787) said that the settlement between the company and overseas customers is mainly in US dollars, and the depreciation of RMB is beneficial to the export of domestic goods from a macro perspective, but the specific impact on the company is still difficult to quantify. Hairup (002399) said that the company's export products are mainly settled in euros and dollars, and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations will depend on the specific exchange rate at the beginning and end of the report.
Skyworth Digital (0008 10) said that the company pays close attention to the changes in the foreign exchange market every day, and based on the foreign exchange risk early warning system, it takes targeted measures to carry out foreign exchange hedging business, so as to avoid the risks in the foreign exchange market, prevent the adverse impact of large exchange rate fluctuations on the company's operations and finances, ensure the avoidance of financial risks, and ensure the company's steady development.
The central bank will slow down the excessive depreciation of the exchange rate and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable.
In response to the sharp depreciation of the exchange rate, the central bank took action. On the evening of April 25th, the central bank announced that in order to improve the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds, it decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions 1 percentage point from May 5th, 2022, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced from the current 9% to 8%. Last year, during the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank raised the foreign exchange reserve ratio twice, both by 2 percentage points.
This reserve ratio may be unfamiliar to domestic residents, and it corresponds to the scale of foreign exchange deposits. By the end of March this year, the balance of foreign exchange deposits in China was $65,438 +0.05 trillion. According to industry analysts, lowering 1 percentage point can increase the capital supply of about 1000 billion US dollars, increase the foreign exchange settlement quota of financial institutions, and ease the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation.
Looking forward to the later period, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on April 22 that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate in two directions in the future and remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. China's economic resilience is relatively strong, the long-term positive development trend has not changed, the balance of payments structure is stable, the current account maintains a reasonable scale surplus, and RMB assets still have long-term investment value, which will provide fundamental support for the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate.
Guan Tao believes that to deepen the reform of exchange rate marketization, we must trust the market. China has not used appreciation to hedge imported inflation before, and now it will not use depreciation to stimulate exports. There is no currency that only rises but does not fall, and the exchange rate flexibility increases, which helps to release pressure in time and avoid expected accumulation. No matter whether the exchange rate rises or falls, it has its own advantages and disadvantages, and all parties should treat it with normality.
Beijing News Shell Finance Reporter Cheng Editor Yue Caizhou Proofread Fu Chunyu
"，" force_purephv":"0 "，" gnid":"992facce952d8fbbc "，" img_data":[{"flag":2，" img":[]}]，" original":0，" pat":"art_src_ 1，fts0，sts0 "， "powerby":"cache", "pub _ time":165090285100, "pure": ","rawurl":"/d2b7e666 What's the impact on mainland economy? -Offshore RMB business refers to the deposit business of RMB outside China. Offshore market provides offshore financial services: businesses where both parties are non-residents are called offshore financial services. Offshore means they can't operate in their own country. The offshore RMB market is the RMB market outside China. Because RMB is not the currency in circulation in the world, such a market is naturally illegal.
The main significance of offshore RMB market: it is conducive to bureaucratic capital money laundering and plundering the people.
What does the rise of offshore RMB mean: the rise of offshore RMB is good news for the stock market. It is likely that the stock market will rise later, but it is not absolute. The stock market is risky. Investment needs to be cautious. Offshore RMB refers to the deposit business of RMB outside China. The business where both parties are non-residents is called offshore financial business. Offshore market provides offshore financial services: businesses where both parties are non-residents are called offshore financial services. The People's Bank of China supports the establishment of offshore RMB market in Hongkong. The People's Bank of China is also studying the possibility of establishing an offshore RMB market in Shanghai. Before RMB was fully convertible, there was a RMB outflow from the trading market in China, thus promoting and ensuring the development of RMB trade settlement. 20 1 1 Singapore Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong visited China in April, and Singapore officially joined the competition in the offshore RMB market. Hong Kong has the richest offshore RMB products and is the largest offshore RMB business center in the world.
Does the rise of offshore RMB mean RMB depreciation? The depreciation of offshore RMB directly affects the increase of exports and brings business opportunities to manufacturing, transportation and import and export-related industries. Because it is only offshore depreciation, it has little impact on the lives of domestic people.
What is the impact of the offshore RMB surge against the US dollar on the stock market? On the whole, it can be regarded as positive. The offshore RMB has soared against the US dollar, narrowing the gap with the onshore RMB exchange rate, lowering the expectation of RMB depreciation and reducing the outflow of foreign capital, so that domestic capital liquidity will be abundant, which is conducive to the development of the stock market.
What is the impact of the offshore RMB surge against the US dollar on the stock market? The surge in offshore RMB is bad for some export enterprises, but good for the stock market as a whole. Rising will attract more capital into the domestic market, which is good for both the stock market and real estate. In addition, it should be noted that this rise and fall depends on the long-term general trend, and the short-term impact on the future prospects is very limited.
Is the offshore RMB plunge beneficial to us? There are many reasons behind the offshore RMB crash. The most important point is that the RMB exchange rate itself is overvalued. Although it was adjusted once at the end of last year, it was not adjusted in place. At present, there are many uncertainties in China's economy, and there are problems in the stock market. China is facing the pressure of massive capital outflow. These are all related. ...
Heavy, offshore RMB exchange rate suddenly soared, what is the mystery behind it-:What does this mean? Obviously, the "price difference" between Hong Kong's offshore and domestic onshore markets has been instantly repaired. This means that the offshore foreign exchange market involving many overseas institutions and overseas branches of Chinese enterprises is expected to begin to reverse. It can be seen from the huge price difference that the offshore market is far more bearish on the RMB exchange rate than the domestic market. ...
Why did offshore RMB both soar? -:Offshore RMB business refers to the deposit business of RMB outside China. Offshore financial services are provided in the offshore market: businesses where both parties are non-residents are called offshore financial services. At present, the RMB settlement of cross-border trade is carried out under the capital account and the RMB is not fully convertible, which flows overseas through trade. ...
Why should China vigorously develop offshore RMB?-Because users of offshore RMB market in RMB offshore trading center can enjoy financial services similar to USD and EUR as long as their funds are not in contact with China, so they are not subject to capital control in China. The interest rate and exchange rate are determined by the market and may be different from those in China, that is, the onshore market. It refers to operating RMB deposit business outside China, playing a bridgehead role in promoting RMB internationalization, and being the node of RMB internal and external system circulation. A number of offshore RMB trading centers have been established in Asia and Europe.