News surface
1. Bank of America: In 20 18, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 100 basis points, global earnings per share increased by 8%, and global stock markets fell 1 1%. In 20 19, the federal reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points, the global earnings per share increased by 1%, and the global stock market rose by 20%.
2. Stuart Sparks, strategist of Deutsche Bank, wrote in the 2020 outlook report of June 5438+February 1 1 that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may drop to 1.55% at the end of the third quarter, and then rebound to1.55% at the end of 2020. It wrote that even if the economic growth rate returns to the trend level, the risk of falling inflation rate will remain "lingering". The forecast includes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or twice next year. The downside risk of this forecast is that the US economy may grow faster than expected. However, if the domestic economy lags behind the global situation, or brings the upward risk of yield, there is also "considerable uncertainty" in the net effect brought by the flattening of China Phillips curve, and inflation may have an impact on the trend of the US dollar.
3. Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (MUFG) released a research report on Thursday, pointing out that whether it can break through the 200-day moving average will become a key indicator of the trend of the euro against the US dollar after entering the new year. Euro/USD began to rebound after the Federal Reserve's resolution, successfully returning to above the 1. 1 100 mark and approaching the 200-day moving average1.154. The euro against the US dollar has never closed above the 200-day moving average since the beginning of 20 18, so it will become the key hub of the euro trend in 2020. The Fed stressed that it would keep interest rates at the current level until inflation rose "significantly" and "continuously". It is believed that the re-expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will be an effective means to avoid the financing tension.
4. On Thursday, the onshore RMB closed up 53 points, hitting a new high of nearly two weeks, and the intraday effective volatility was still very small. As the US dollar index fell, the central parity rose by 132 points to a high of more than a week. Traders said that the prospects of global trade peace talks still need to be further revealed. Before the risk is released, it is difficult for RMB to break through the range fluctuation, but the narrow range fluctuation is also conducive to institutions to do more business. They also said that the US dollar index fell after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision overnight, which supported the RMB. However, the implied volatility of offshore RMB one-cycle options reached a maximum of 7.338, approaching the monthly high of 10, indicating that the market is still worried about the uncertainty of news. If further trade-related news tends to be optimistic, the RMB may rebound slightly; Otherwise, the exchange rate will fall to the 7. 1 yuan mark. Earlier, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and hinted that borrowing costs may remain unchanged for some time. The Federal Reserve predicts that the economy will continue to grow moderately in the election year next year and the unemployment rate will remain low. But despite this, the dollar index still fell sharply. Affected by this, the RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a stable trend as a whole. In the global foreign exchange market, the euro held at a five-week high on Thursday, and Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank, then held the first policy meeting. Previously, the Federal Reserve predicted that the interest rate would remain unchanged in 2020, but Chairman Powell stressed that the low interest rate policy would remain appropriate for a long time, which made the US dollar overlap and non-US currencies rose to varying degrees.
Dollar exchange rate quotation
The latest quotation of 1. USD exchange rate.
As of press time, the US dollar index is now at 96.7736, a decrease of 0.53%. Today, 1 dollar equals 0.8946 euro, 1 dollar equals 0.742 1 pound, 1 dollar equals 109.590 yen and 1 dollar equals 1 .44390 yen. 1 USD equals 1.3 160 Canadian dollars, 1 USD equals 1 .5 1 NZD,1USD equals 7.8048 Hong Kong dollars. USD 1 equals 6.9644 yuan offshore, and USD 1 equals1/70.7500 won.
2. China Industrial and Commercial Bank's foreign exchange quotation
Dollar exchange rate trend
Euro/USD daily chart
EUR/USD: On the daily chart, on Thursday (12), EUR/USD receives a positive cross. Yesterday, the highest 1. 1 154 and the lowest1.103 were closed at1.50006 single K-line. Looking at the trend of K-line, in the trend of nearly 12 trading days, the market bulls are dominant, and the short-term euro against the US dollar is still expected to rise. In the medium term, the market bulls are dominant, and there is a greater probability that the disk will continue its upward trend. In the long run, EUR/USD is still in the downward trend of wedge consolidation structure. At present, the disk trend is in the process of reverse pumping, running near the upper rail. In the short term, EUR/USD may enter the callback market. MACD yellow and white lines form a golden cross above the 0 axis, and the red column expands. On the whole, the short-term EUR/USD may continue to challenge the first-line pressure of 1. 1 164, but the possibility of a short-term correction is not ruled out. In the general trend, the disk has a high probability of continuing the main downward trend. If Europe and America break through the top pressure, the market outlook will continue to pay attention to the first-line pressure of 1. 1 199; If it can't be broken, the disk trend will be adjusted back with high probability in the short term, which will test the first-line support of1.102.
Daily chart of USD against onshore RMB.
USD/RMB: On the daily chart, USD/onshore RMB opened lower on Thursday (12) and closed at 7.0044, with a drop of 0.49% in the day. The trend of K-line shows that in the past seven trading days, bears dominated the market, and it is expected that there will still be room for correction of short-term USD against onshore RMB. In the medium term, the market bears are dominant, and it is more likely that the US dollar will continue to fluctuate downward against the onshore RMB. MACD yellow and white lines form a dead fork below the 0 axis, and the red column turns green. On the whole, it is more likely that the short-term USD/RMB will continue to pull back to test the 7-mark support. If the US dollar falls below the 7-mark support against the onshore RMB, the market outlook will continue to pay attention to the first-line support of 6.9766; If it cannot be broken, the short-term high probability rebound of the disk trend will challenge the first-line pressure of 7.0239.