Urbanization in Latin America has been realized in a relatively short period of time. Statistics show that it took 50 years for the proportion of urban population in Europe to rise from 40% to 60%, while it took only 25 years for Latin American countries.
In the process of urbanization in Latin America, it is very common that the urban population is highly concentrated in one (usually the capital) or several cities. For example, Lima, the capital of Peru, accounts for13 of the national population, as well as Montevideo (52% of the national population), Buenos Aires (45%), Mexico City (32%), Caracas (26%), Santiago (44%), Panama City (66%) and La Paz (44%). According to the report published by the United Nations 1995, among the 25 "megacities" in the world, Latin America accounts for 5, among which Sao Paulo (population 16400) ranks second in the world, Mexico City (15600) ranks fourth, and Buenos Aires (1.
-
Second, the characteristics of the economic situation in Latin America in recent years
At present, the Latin American economy is in a new growth cycle, and presents eight remarkable characteristics.
1. The positive influence of external factors is more and more obvious. Although the improvement of the economic situation in Latin America in recent years has benefited from the vitality and other internal factors released by the economic reform since the 1990s, many studies show that the positive impact of the improvement of the world economy (especially the American economy) on the Latin American economy cannot be ignored. This also shows to some extent that if the world economy can continue to maintain a good growth momentum, the economic prospects in Latin America will be further optimistic. Of course, in order to make better use of favorable external conditions, Latin American countries must also improve the efficiency of domestic investment, improve infrastructure and strengthen government management.
2. The current account surplus is accompanied by high economic growth rate. On the one hand, the export trade of Latin America is growing; On the other hand, many Latin American countries (especially Central American countries) have received a lot of remittances. The combination of the growth of remittance income and trade surplus has led to the current account surplus in Latin America (surplus and deficit accounted for 1.5% of GDP in 2006). The coexistence of current account surplus and high economic growth rate is a rare phenomenon in Latin American economy for many years, and it is also a favorable condition for Latin American economy to resist external shocks.
3. The current account surplus is closely related to the improvement of terms of trade. If the foreign trade in 2005 is calculated by the terms of trade in the 1990s, then the current account of Latin American countries is not a surplus, but a deficit of 2.7%, and the whole balance of payments is not a surplus, but a deficit of 0.7%. Of course, in view of the fact that oil prices were far below the current level in the 1990s, the terms of trade of Central American countries and Caribbean countries (except Trinidad and Tobago, an oil-producing country) that depend on oil imports may be better than the current ones.
The growth of national income has promoted domestic demand. In recent years, the national income growth rate of Latin American countries has exceeded the GDP growth rate. In 2004, the national income growth rate and GDP growth rate of Latin American countries were 7. 1% and 5.9% respectively, and in 2005 they were 5.9% and 4.5% respectively. Therefore, from 2004 to 2005, domestic demand in Latin America increased by 4.2% and 5.3% respectively. The fact that the growth rate of domestic demand is not as fast as that of national income also shows to some extent that national savings in Latin America are increasing.
However, the investment rate in Latin America (2 1.6% in 2005) has not recovered to the level of 1.997 before the Asian financial crisis, and it is impossible to create enough employment plans. In most Latin American countries, creating enough employment opportunities is one of the necessary conditions to solve social problems. The disadvantages of long-term underinvestment in Latin American countries have become very obvious. For example, Latin America has the second largest oil and gas reserves in the world. Due to the long-term lack of investment in the energy sector, some Latin American oil-producing countries have been unable to significantly increase their output in the face of rising international energy prices in recent years. The only exception may be Brazil. Due to the expansion of investment in previous years, Petrobras was able to significantly increase oil production in 2006, thus making Brazil basically self-sufficient in energy.
The debt burden has been greatly reduced. Compared with 10 years ago, the proportion of Latin American countries' debt in export income has decreased by half, and the proportion of short-term debt in foreign exchange reserves has decreased by two-thirds. In Latin American countries, not only the proportion of public debt to GDP is declining, but also the debt composition has undergone important changes: First, the proportion of fixed-rate debt to total debt is rising; Secondly, the proportion of debt denominated in local currency in total debt is rising. Take Argentina as an example. At the end of 1990s, the proportion of debt denominated in pesos in the total debt was only 65,438+00%, which rose to 52% in 2006. Brazil's share rose from 54% in 2002 to 95% this year.
6. The financial situation is improving. In recent years, on the one hand, higher economic growth rate has promoted production, thus increasing tax revenue; On the other hand, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure is not large. As a result, the financial situation of Latin American countries has improved and the financial situation has begun to improve.
7. In the eyes of many international investors, the risk in Latin America is decreasing. This is caused by the following factors: Latin American economy has entered a new growth period, and the economic situation in the next few years is relatively optimistic; The balance of payments is improving; The macroeconomic situation is improving; The range of exchange rate fluctuations is narrowing.
8. The economic policies of the left-wing government are no different from those implemented by other governments. In recent years, the Latin American left has made a comeback in politics, which has aroused great concern from the international community. Latin American leftist governments can be divided into two categories. First, the governments of Lula in Brazil, Bachelet in Chile and Kirchner in Argentina. These "center-left" governments insist on reform and opening up, pay equal attention to social development and economic development, and maintain and develop economic relations with the United States. The second is the Chavez government in Venezuela and the Morales government in Bolivia. This type of government is very different from the "center-left" government. Its economic policy is based on the concept of "populism" and many social development projects have been implemented by taking advantage of the sharp rise in international energy prices. In addition, in the field of foreign economic relations, Chavez and Morales held high the anti-American banner and advocated that the government control the national economy. Therefore, some people think that the differences between left-wing governments in Latin America are greater than those between left-wing governments and right-wing governments. However, on the whole, the economic policies of the left-wing government are not much different from those implemented by other governments.
-
For quite some time to come, economic globalization will still be dominated by developed countries. As a developing region, Latin America will continue to show its economic fragility in this wave.
(-) The gap between the rich and the poor in Latin America will further widen. Due to the strong promotion of economic globalization, most countries in Latin America can't keep up with this rapid change. Many national enterprises are unable to compete and have closed down. A large number of cheap and unskilled laborers have been unemployed for a long time, which has become a burden to society. According to the statistics of the Inter-American Development Bank, Latin America is already the region with the greatest disparity between the rich and the poor in the world today: the richest 20% people control more than 50% of the finances, while the poorest 20% people only own 4.5% of the property. Of the 740 million people in Latin America, more than 40% live below the poverty line and 20% are in abject poverty. It seems that social injustice will be brought into 2 1 century as the main problem of Latin American development. Latin American countries have made up their minds that the mode of simultaneous economic and social development of poor families, including the "second generation reform" of social content, will soon be put on the agenda.
(2) Latin America's foreign debt will be further aggravated. Economic globalization makes capital flow more free. In the 1990s, although Latin American countries carried out economic restructuring, the phenomenon of borrowing to develop their economies increased. From 1990 to199, the total foreign debt of Latin American countries increased from $443 billion to $749.3 billion. Compared with 10 years ago, the foreign debt interest paid by Latin American countries has tripled, and will be close to150 billion US dollars in 2000, equivalent to one third of the total foreign trade in this region. It can be predicted that borrowing foreign debt will remain one of the main forms of external financing in Latin America in the future. Although most Latin American countries are negotiating to reschedule the repayment of foreign debt and interest, high debt will inevitably become an important constraint to economic development.
(3) Latin American countries will remain vulnerable to the international financial crisis and international market prices. Every time there is a financial crisis in the world, Latin America is doomed. 1994- 1995 Mexican financial crisis, 1997 Asian financial crisis, 1998 Russian financial crisis, and 1999 Brazilian financial turmoil all affected Latin America to varying degrees. Economic experts believe that the impact of the one-year financial crisis will often make Latin American countries' efforts for three to five years go down the drain.
Compared with other developing regions, Latin America's financial system has experienced some tests on a certain scale. However, with the development of network economy, the capital flow in the international financial market is more rapid and changeable, and it is increasingly urgent for Latin American countries to further improve their financial systems and establish necessary prevention and evasion mechanisms.
Latin America is still the origin of raw materials to a great extent, and the fluctuation of raw material prices in the international market will affect the economic development of Latin America for quite some time. Therefore, it is the best way for Latin American countries to strengthen their international competitiveness and avoid becoming raw material suppliers and commodity dumping markets in developed countries again by changing the production structure, overcoming the defects in system operation, keeping up with the pace of knowledge economy, developing high-tech industries and increasing investment in education.