During Keynes's The Biggest Idiot Theory 1908- 19 14, Keynes taught every class: economic principles, monetary theory, securities investment and so on. Therefore, he was rated as "selling the machine of economics by the hour". Keynes's motivation for earning class fees is to be free to devote himself to academic research in the future and avoid being troubled by money. However, it is said that vomiting blood can't save much money just by earning class fees. Keynes finally understood this truth, so in August 2009, he borrowed thousands of pounds for forward foreign exchange speculation. In just four months, he made a net profit of more than 10,000 pounds, which is equivalent to his income from teaching 10 years. Speculators often have this experience: the first jump is often near misses, so money inexplicably goes into their own pockets. Just as he was on cloud nine, he suddenly fell into the abyss. Three months later, Keynes lost all his profits and borrowed the principal. Gamblers often have the mentality of winning and losing from the gambling table. Seven months later, Keynes set foot in cotton futures trading, gambled wildly and achieved great success. Stimulated by this, he made various futures. If it's not enough, go to the stock market. In more than ten years, he made a lot of money. By 1937, when he was ill and washed his hands, he had accumulated great wealth that he could not enjoy all his life. Different from ordinary gamblers, he left a fascinating gambling classic-The Theory of the Greatest Fool, which can be regarded as a by-product of his speculative activities. It is speculated that Keynes may have participated in the newspaper beauty contest and won the prize. Otherwise, he can't use such an example: choose the most beautiful face from 100 photos and choose the prize. Of course, the final decision on which face is the most beautiful is the highest number of votes. How should you vote? The correct way is not to choose the face you really think is beautiful, but to guess who most people will choose and vote for her, even if she is ugly like an entertainment star who haunts all kinds of funny occasions and makes people have nightmares at night. In other words, speculation should be based on public psychology. Futures and securities are a kind of speculation or gambling to some extent. For example, you don't know the true value of a stock, but why did you spend 20 yuan to buy one? Because you expect someone to buy from you at a higher price. This is what Keynes called the "greatest fool" theory. You are willing to pay a high price for something regardless of its true value, even if it is worthless, because you expect a bigger fool to buy it from you at a higher price. The key to speculation is to judge that there is a bigger fool than yourself. As long as you are not the biggest fool, it is a question of winning more and winning less. If you can't find a bigger fool who is willing to buy from you at a higher price, then you are the biggest fool. The biggest idiot theory is the most explanatory to the speculative frenzy that has been staged in Chinese and foreign history. 1593, a professor of botany from Vienna went to teach in Leiden, the Netherlands. He brought tulips, a plant grown in Turkey that the Dutch had never seen before. Unexpectedly, the Dutch were fascinated by it, so the professor decided that he could make a lot of money, and his price was so high that the Dutch had to steal it. Late one night, a thief broke in and stole all the turmeric bulbs brought by the professor and sold them at a much lower price than the professor. So tulips are planted in the gardens of thousands of Dutch people. Later, tulips were attacked by mosaic disease, resulting in some contrasting stripes or "flames" on the petals. Dramatically, the sick tulip became a treasure, so that the weirder the tulip bulb, the higher the price. So some people began to hoard sick tulips, and more people paid high prices to buy them from hoarders and sell them at higher prices. 1638, the biggest idiot appeared, and the tulip craze that lasted for five years ended tragically, and the price of bulbs fell to the price of an onion. 1720 There was an episode in the British stock market frenzy: an anonymous person founded a fictitious company. No one knew what this company was from beginning to end, but nearly a thousand investors scrambled to squeeze out the door when they subscribed. Not many people believe that it is really profitable, but expect more idiots to appear, prices will rise, and they will make their own money. Interestingly, Newton took part in this speculation and unfortunately became the biggest fool. He therefore lamented: "I can calculate the motion of celestial bodies, but it is really difficult to estimate the madness of people."