The safest foreign exchange arbitrage portfolio is multi-pound empty euro.
Nanfang Daily: 20 17 Which foreign exchange arbitrage portfolios have greater opportunities and higher security?
Bai Haifeng: First of all, it must be emphasized that there is no basis for the continued depreciation of the RMB. If you do some cash transactions in foreign exchange transactions next year, it will be safer. First of all, you should be long in dollars and short in euros. Europe is still loose, and the United States is still relatively tight. After Britain left the EU, the nightmare in Europe has just begun, and many things will come out later. Without unified financial policy support, problems including refugees will gradually ferment. Looking at the yen, the yield of yen bonds is still zero or negative. If the United States raises interest rates, simple arbitrage can short the yen and earn more dollars.
Another combination that may be safer is to make more pounds and short the euro. If it weren't for Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, Britain would be the first country in the world to raise interest rates before the United States. After Trump's successful election campaign, all currencies in the world depreciated against the US dollar, but the pound depreciated only slightly, and it is still rising these two days. Moreover, after Britain left the EU, the economy became better and better. After the risks in the euro zone have been washed away, this operation is relatively logically supported.
Nanfang Daily: What suggestions do you have for the allocation of major assets next year?
Bai Haifeng: When it comes to asset allocation, it means investing in US dollar bonds. There are three logics in this. First, the assets are in line with the US dollar; Second, fixed income assets; Third, credit is undervalued, which leads to a low credit rate and will maintain a good income level. From 20 14 to now, China's overseas dollar bonds have not defaulted except for a private enterprise's technical default, and all other China enterprises and local government bonds have not defaulted, and the default rate of quasi-sovereign fund bonds is zero, so the return rate of such assets is good, and the relative safety margin is also good.
Gold does not necessarily run counter to the dollar.
Nanfang Daily: Are there any opportunities for commodities next year?
Bai Haifeng: Commodities include raw materials, commodities and energy. If these three aspects are laid out next year, there should be a high margin of safety. The main logic is that monetary effects, printing so much money and releasing so much liquidity on a global scale, is bound to be reflected in asset prices; The second is that Trump's New Deal is expected to have a high probability of going in this direction; The third is inflation expectations, and inflation in the United States will also rise. As long as the price of crude oil rises, inflation in the United States is bound to rise. One of the most important shocks to inflation is commodities. You can see that the overheating cycle in the economic cycle is economic growth. When CPI rises, commodities are the most profitable. These three logics basically confirm that commodities and energy will develop better next year.
Nanfang Daily: Under the logic of a strong dollar, can gold be allocated?
Bai Haifeng: Most of the time, the trend of gold and the dollar is opposite. However, when the economy is very bad or geopolitical friction occurs, both gold and the dollar will appear as safe-haven assets. Statistically speaking, the trend of gold and the dollar is not necessarily the opposite. Gold is naturally a currency. At present, there is a phenomenon of currency super discovery, and the whole world is moving towards the gold standard. As the gold standard, gold is a return direction with long-term allocation value.
Nanfang Daily: If you are optimistic about US stocks, which index is more suitable for tracking?
Bai Haifeng: The Nasdaq index performed well in the past. If you look at the short-term configuration, it is recommended to configure the S&P index; If we are optimistic about the United States for a long time, regardless of the political cycle, I think Nasdaq 100 has long-term allocation value.
Nanfang Daily: How many times do you expect the Fed to raise interest rates next year?
Bai Haifeng: The mainstream view is that it will be increased two or three times next year. These are all high probability events. The biggest black swan incident is that the United States does not raise interest rates. Because, if you add two or three times, it doesn't really matter, because the market will digest it in advance. Looking at the whole capital market, we need to grasp the macro direction, that is, the technology cycle and the population cycle. As for the credit cycle and inventory cycle, we don't need to look so carefully. How many times to add, how much to add at a time. If you stare too carefully, you will ignore the general direction or go in the wrong direction.