Liquidity: worse. The task of preventing structural price increase from turning into obvious inflation in China is very heavy, so it is urgent to continue to raise interest rates. However, the spread between China and the United States may prompt global funds to further flow into China, which will further worsen China's excess liquidity. The increase of excess liquidity may lead to the continuous rise of asset prices and even make inflation a reality. According to insiders, this is just like China's measures such as raising the statutory reserve ratio "blocking water", while the United States is "injecting water". If the "water injection port" is not blocked, the problem cannot be fundamentally solved. At present, banks in China do not have much room for manoeuvre in monetary supervision.
Exports: increased uncertainty. Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce show that from June 5438 to July, China's exports to the EU increased by 3 1.9% year-on-year, while its exports to the United States only increased by 18%. Meanwhile, in recent months, China's total export to the EU has surpassed that of the United States. Analysts said that China's exports to the United States may slow down, and the substitution role of Europe will be obvious. Europe may replace the United States as an important commodity export destination for China, and the situation that the trade surplus remains high will not change. However, if the US economy walks out of the danger of recession, China's export enterprises will benefit from it. Under the prospect of strong international demand, China's foreign trade export is expected to maintain rapid and steady growth, and the surplus is expected to continue to expand.
Renminbi: The pressure of appreciation has increased. Maintaining the US-China currency spread was once considered as an important tool to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation and prevent the influx of hot money. Therefore, since the appreciation of RMB, the currency spread between RMB and USD has reached 3%. Analysts believe that the upside-down spread between the United States and China has a great impact on the domestic monetary situation, and the pressure of RMB appreciation will increase unprecedentedly. Although the United States is eager for funds to solve the liquidity crisis, it will still face the pressure of hot money. Changes in the foreign exchange market also confirmed analysts' concerns. On the first trading day after the US dollar announced a sharp interest rate cut, the RMB opened more than 200 points higher against the US dollar, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.2350 yuan, up 57 basis points from the previous trading day, reaching a new high. Some market participants also believe that the impact of the upside-down spread between the United States and China on international hot money needs to be observed. At present, hot money has both the temptation to go to China and the need to withdraw. How big the specific increase will be, it is still difficult to judge.
Stock market and property market: the task of preventing bubbles is aggravated. According to experience, the property market and the stock market are probably the first choice for international hot money to enter China, which will aggravate the bubble tendency of the property market and the stock market in China. This should draw lessons from Japan. After the plaza agreement of 1985, the yen appreciated sharply, and international hot money poured into the Japanese stock market and property market, which promoted the stock market and property market to skyrocket. However, after the bubble burst, the Nikkei index began to plummet, and fell to 760 1 in April 2003, the lowest in nearly 20 years. The average price of Japanese real estate market fell by more than1/3; Banks that provide a large amount of financing for pledged loans have huge non-performing assets, estimated to exceed 100 trillion yen, and the banking system has a serious systemic credit crisis. According to insiders, China should prevent the impact of international hot money on China stock market and property market.
At the same time, insiders pointed out that from the perspective of interest rate cuts in the United States, we should re-examine the position and role of the government in economic development to a certain extent. After the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the U.S. government used "drugs" to save the economy in an unprecedented way, and the number of means was dizzying. At the beginning of the crisis, the United States immediately injected a lot of capital into financial institutions in crisis; Then cut interest rates one after another; Later, it proposed to provide tax rebates for individuals and small businesses, support the expansion of consumption and investment, and adopt an economic stimulus plan totaling $654.38+046 billion. When the economy is just showing signs of recession, the United States, with a very sound market system, has tried its best to save its own economy, which is also worthy of our consideration.