A: The healthy development of China's foreign trade plays a very important role in solving the contradictions in China's economic development, improving the international competitiveness and comprehensive national strength of our products, and even promoting the development of the world economy.
Over the years, China's trade surplus in goods has been an important source of rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves. At the end of 200 1, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$ 200 billion and exceeded US$ 1 trillion by the end of 2006. From 20001year to 2006, the accumulated trade surplus of goods reached $367.5 billion, equivalent to 43% of the increase of foreign exchange reserves in the same period. The trade surplus provides a source of funds for the capital accumulation of enterprises, improves the expectations of manufacturers for the future market, stimulates the investment demand, and improves the scale efficiency of enterprises.
Compared with many countries, China's development is more open and plays a greater role in promoting world economic growth, so its import and export have maintained rapid growth for many years. According to the analysis of relevant experts, from 2003 to 2005, the contribution rate of China's foreign trade growth to world trade growth remained at around 10%, which played an important role in promoting the overall recovery of the global economy.
Processing trade is the main factor of surplus.
A: The trade surplus is an inevitable result of China's policy of actively utilizing foreign capital and its unique trade structure, and it is also a normal manifestation of the long-term healthy and rapid development of the domestic economy. China's unique trade structure with processing trade as the main mode of trade and foreign-invested enterprises as the main body of import and export is the main factor for China's foreign trade to maintain a long-term surplus.
For a long time,
Processing trade has become half of China's foreign trade. Processing trade is a form of value-added trade, which will inevitably produce a trade surplus. In 2006, the total trade surplus of China was177.5 billion USD, of which the general trade surplus was 8.31billion USD, and the processing trade surplus was as high as188.9 billion USD, exceeding the total trade surplus. Thus, the current processing trade is the most important factor of China's foreign trade surplus.
The utilization of foreign direct investment continued to grow. In 2006, the scale of foreign direct investment in China reached US$ 63 billion, of which nearly 70% was invested in manufacturing. China has become a global manufacturing center for some important industrial products. The position of foreign-invested enterprises in China's foreign trade is increasingly consolidated. On the one hand, foreign-invested enterprises produce for the domestic market, replacing some import demand. The import and export situation of steel products, automobiles and parts, machinery and equipment, consumer electronics products, urea and other products has changed significantly. On the other hand, due to the limited domestic market, foreign-funded enterprises have huge export demand. In recent years, the proportion of foreign-invested enterprises' exports in China's total foreign trade exports has remained at around 60%, and it is on the rise year by year.
China's trade surplus is also closely related to the following three short-term factors: First, some enterprises suddenly export before the adjustment of export tax rebate rate. Second, the pressure of RMB appreciation urges enterprises to accelerate the pace of export. Third, the rising cost of export has raised the price of export commodities. In addition, a few developed countries or regions imposed a blockade on the export of high technology and its products, which led to the shortage of technology and equipment urgently needed for China's economic development and industrial upgrading, and this was also an important factor that caused a large trade surplus.
Excess will exist for a long time.
A: Due to China's policy of actively utilizing foreign capital and its unique trade structure, China's trade surplus will exist for a long time. When judging whether the trade is balanced internationally, the warning line is usually that the trade balance is lower than 10% compared with the total import and export volume of the current year. In 2006, China's trade surplus was177.5 billion US dollars, accounting for about 10% of the total import and export in that year. 1%, just touching the warning line. Judging from the current situation of Germany, the world's largest exporter, foreign trade was in surplus for 54 years from 1952 to 2005. The trade surplus exceeded100 billion dollars for the first time in 2002, and190 billion dollars in 2004 and 2005. Among them, the trade imbalance exceeds 10% in 12 years, and the highest is 12 years. 7%, the surplus degree exceeds that of China. Therefore, China's current large trade surplus is basically normal.
In short, in the face of the new situation brought about by a large number of trade surpluses, we should maintain a normal mind, attach great importance to the external imbalance and internal influence brought about by the trade surplus problem, and correctly understand the objective inevitability of the trade surplus.
Expand imports and domestic demand
A: The huge trade surplus has also brought us new problems. For example, the trade friction between China and its major trading partners has increased, and the risk of export enterprises encountering international trade barriers has increased; China's foreign exchange management is facing more open international pressure; The domestic economy faces potential inflation risks.
In my opinion, to solve this problem, we should not only work hard in the field of foreign trade, but also use our brains in other fields; We should not only change the mode of export growth, but also make a fuss about expanding imports and increasing domestic demand. First of all, vigorously developing the domestic consumer market can stimulate domestic demand and improve the sluggish domestic consumption by improving the social security system. Secondly, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, and make policy adjustments to the processing trade of products with two high qualifications and one capital by expanding the catalogue of products with restricted processing trade. Third, make necessary adjustments to the policy of utilizing foreign capital, from attracting foreign capital to selecting business and capital, and raising business and capital. Fourth, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and reasonably guide the expectation of appreciation. Fifth, we should do some concrete work in adjusting the export structure and expanding imports. In particular, we should urge a few developed countries or regions to relax export restrictions on high-tech and its products to China, so as to optimize the import and export structure and alleviate the pressure of excessive growth of surplus.