It didn't happen overnight that the United States became the largest debtor country in the world. Since 1980s, with the continuous decline of foreign investment, the United States has turned to rely heavily on foreign investment to support its economic growth. The United States changed from a net creditor country to a debtor country in 1985, ending the 70-year history of net creditor countries since 19 14.
From 1970 to 1975, the total foreign net assets of the United States accounted for 1 1% of GDP, and by 2004, the foreign negative assets of the United States reached 22% of GDP. Klein said that if the United States does not make fiscal adjustments and prevent the dollar from depreciating, by 20 10, the current account deficit of the United States will reach10.2 trillion dollars, accounting for 7.5% of GDP, while the net foreign debt will reach 8 trillion dollars, accounting for 50% of GDP.
If the status quo is not changed, the current account deficit of the United States will account for 14% of GDP in 20 years, and the net foreign debt will reach 135% of GDP in 2024. At that time, as foreign investors lose confidence in the United States, the pressure of domestic protectionism can't be controlled, and a major crisis will emerge. Klein believes that delaying this unbalanced adjustment can only have a greater impact on American family living standards.
Japan and China are the largest creditors in the United States.
According to the data of the US Treasury Department, the total amount of US fiscal bonds held by foreign countries is as high as 654.38+038 billion. Japan and China are the largest creditor countries in the United States. It is reported that in order to avoid the depreciation of the US dollar, China recently reduced its purchase of US dollar bonds. As of July 2005, Japan held US$ 683.3 billion in bonds, China held US$ 242,654.38 billion in bonds, and the US dollar bonds held by China and Japan exceeded two-thirds of the total US fiscal bonds.
Felix Rohatyn, the former American ambassador to new york and director of the stock exchange, was involved in saving the new york financial crisis in 1970s, and recently took the pulse of the current American economy. People think that America is the richest and most powerful country in the world. However, Rohatyn said, "This just shows the decline of the status of the United States on the world stage, whether as a financial, military or moral leader. The United States is now a big country that makes people afraid and nervous, because we do some unexpected things and never discuss with others. "
China remains the second largest "creditor" of the United States. His guess is: "Sooner or later, China people will want to turn their huge bonds into the property of the American economy. For example, can the United States use this bond to let China invest in the construction of high-speed railways in the United States? I think we can, if we want to. "
"In this case, the United States should formulate a set of plans for it, such as the establishment of the China-US Investment Committee, but the United States has never discussed these issues." ? Rohatyn said: "China has become a major economic player in the world. In its China policy, the US government should talk more about economic and social issues rather than always talking about the Taiwan Strait crisis. " He also said: "In the case of CNOOC's bid for Unocal, I don't know why Congress is involved, which makes the problem complicated and difficult. In fact, this is not a question of permission or not. China's dollar bonds are enough to buy more than a dozen Unocal. "
The economic situation in the United States will affect the whole world.
To some extent, the rise of net foreign debt is related to high economic growth rate. Britain, the Netherlands, Australia and other countries have also experienced the transformation from creditor countries to debtor countries, and also experienced high economic growth. The same is true in the United States in the late 1990s. However, things are different now.
It is doubtful whether the United States can develop along the past path, partly because the increased foreign debt is not used for more personal investment, but encourages the government, private individuals and families to increase spending. If the United States does not take the initiative to adjust now, the result of forced adjustment in the future will be high interest rates and economic recession, followed by a major outbreak of trade protectionism, which will affect the foreign trade exports of developing countries. In addition, with the increase in the interest rate of the US dollar, the interest rate of foreign debt to be paid by developing countries will also increase.
The current account deficit in the United States is a problem. Very serious question. In order to solve this problem, the dollar needs to depreciate by another 20%, and the government should eliminate the fiscal deficit and keep the current account deficit at a sustainable level of 3% of GDP. At the same time, the currencies of other countries in the world should be adjusted accordingly. Klein said that most of the appreciation of the euro has been "maximized" on the basis of 2002, and the yen has also been slightly adjusted. Klein pointed out that considering that no country will unilaterally greatly appreciate its currency, it is necessary to sign the "Asia Plaza Agreement" to realize the exchange rate union in the region.
According to experts' analysis, most of the increase in American debt is caused by the growing budget deficit and high military expenditure in the United States. 1998 to 200 1 During these four years, the United States still had a political surplus. In 2002, in order to maintain a surplus, the US government experienced negative growth. According to the report released by the Congressional Budget Office, the US federal government deficit reached $477 billion in 2004, far exceeding the record in 2003. According to the budget office of the US Congress, in the next 10 to 20 15 years, the total fiscal deficit of the US will reach 2.58 trillion US dollars, and the annual deficit will exceed 200 billion US dollars. Democrats in the US Congress condemned the huge fiscal deficit caused by the fiscal policies implemented by Republicans, and pointed out that the Bush administration should be responsible for the formation of the fiscal deficit. Some experts pointed out that if the United States does not adjust its fiscal deficit, it will have a serious impact on the American economy and even the world economy, especially the economies of developing countries.