At present, the internal and external factors of RMB appreciation still exist, mainly including the continuous surplus of international trade, the continuous weakening of the US dollar, the reduction of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve and the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, which leads to an increase in speculative capital inflows and an increase in RMB appreciation expectations. These factors have made the RMB exchange rate hit record highs. The author believes that export enterprises can reduce some losses in the process of RMB appreciation in the following ways.
First, reduce the exchange loss of export payment caused by RMB appreciation. First, export enterprises should speed up the payment and shorten the payment cycle. You can collect foreign exchange in advance or collect money in advance to recover funds as soon as possible and settle foreign exchange quickly. Second, export commodities can be settled in RMB to avoid losses caused by exchange rate changes, or in currencies with stable or appreciating currencies, such as the euro. The third is to reduce losses through trade financing. For example, export enterprises can obtain export funds in advance through export bills, export discounts, etc., so as to avoid the income risk brought by RMB appreciation in the future. However, it is worth pointing out that if banks take into account the rising cost of export bills or export discounts under the condition of RMB appreciation, they will raise interest or charging standards, so it is difficult for export enterprises to pass on losses or bear part of them themselves. Fourth, use forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange to avoid exchange rate risk. However, whether the forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange can avoid exchange rate risk depends on whether the determined exchange rate is beneficial to export enterprises, which depends on the bank's expectation of future exchange rate changes. If the expected appreciation is less than the actual appreciation, the determined forward exchange rate may be beneficial to export enterprises; If the expected appreciation is greater than the actual appreciation, it will be unfavorable to export enterprises. Fifth, when signing an export order, we should sign the loss sharing problem of the exchange rate change between the US dollar and RMB in advance. When signing an export contract, exporters can agree in advance on the proportion of losses caused by exchange rate changes, so that both parties can share the risk of losses. Sixth, strengthen the management of foreign exchange account balance, so as to optimize the foreign exchange account balance and reduce the exchange loss caused by excessive foreign exchange balance, so as to maximize the income.
Secondly, through demand conversion, we can increase the demand of export enterprises for products and reduce exchange losses. If the export of export enterprises decreases, it can be compensated by expanding domestic demand. With the appreciation of RMB, the commodity prices of export enterprises abroad will rise, and the quantity of export commodities may decrease. In this way, enterprises can find a way out for their products by turning to domestic demand, and can avoid the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on product prices. At present, with the rapid economic growth and expanding domestic demand in China, the government actively advocates stimulating domestic demand. The transformation from external demand to domestic demand is the strategic choice of many export enterprises. Export enterprises can also consider transferring products exported to the United States to countries such as Europe or Japan. The dollar has been weak recently. Despite the appreciation of the RMB, the RMB has depreciated against the euro and the Japanese yen because the depreciation of the US dollar is greater than the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. If exporters can divert goods exported to the United States to countries such as Europe and Japan, they can reduce losses.
The third is to reduce the losses caused by RMB appreciation through price negotiation. Export enterprises can raise the price of export products through negotiations with importers. The appreciation of RMB will undoubtedly increase the cost of export enterprises. Therefore, domestic exporters should strengthen negotiations with foreign businessmen in order to obtain higher export prices. The outcome of the negotiation depends on whether the export commodities are "buyer's market" or "seller's market". If it is a "seller's market", it is beneficial to exporters and may get a higher negotiation price; If it is a "buyer's market", exporters will be at a disadvantage in the negotiation and it is difficult to transfer losses. When signing export contracts, enterprises should consider the appreciation of RMB and appropriately raise the prices of export commodities. Some export enterprises' contracts may not be signed until the end of the year or next year, so the loss of payment brought by RMB appreciation must be taken into account, and the prices of future export commodities can be appropriately raised through negotiations.
Fourth, enterprises should take the road of connotative development and improve the international competitiveness of their products. Export enterprises can improve labor production efficiency and reduce production costs. The appreciation of RMB will reduce the profits of export enterprises. How to make up for this can improve labor productivity, reduce production costs and eliminate the adverse effects of RMB appreciation by tapping the potential. At the same time, improve product upgrading and produce high value-added products. Export enterprises should speed up product upgrading, strengthen independent innovation, improve the scientific and technological content of products, raise the foreign prices of export commodities, gain more profit space, and make up for the decline in profits brought about by RMB appreciation.
In short, the author thinks that the first three methods mentioned above are only expedient measures for export enterprises to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation and reduce losses, which can play a certain role in the short term. In the long run, RMB may appreciate to a new level, and export enterprises must tap their own potential, reduce production costs, enhance their independent innovation ability and improve the international competitiveness of their products in order to be invincible.
(The author is an associate professor in the Department of International Finance, Fudan University)