In the turmoil of the past few months, one thing has not changed: the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar has been falling. In recent months, the Indian currency has hit a record low, and experts say this downward trend is not over yet. Nirmala Sitharaman, India's Finance Minister, recently quoted data from the Reserve Bank of India to tell the Wolesi Jirga that the rupee has fallen by about 25% against the US dollar since 20 14 12 3 1. Sitharaman once said when answering questions in Parliament that the exchange rate on February 365,438+0, 2065,438+04 was 63.33 rupees to 65,438+0, while on July 65,438+065,438+0 this year, the figure was 79.4 1 rupee.

Why did the rupee depreciate, especially in recent months? Sitaraman believes that global factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, soaring crude oil prices and tightening global financial environment are the main reasons for the weakening of the rupee against the US dollar. As of July 29th, the rupee has fallen by 7% against the US dollar in the past year.

The rupee seems to have no chance to breathe. Some experts said that the Indian currency will remain under pressure for the rest of this year-especially considering that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 65,438+050 basis points in June and July, and hinted that it might raise interest rates again in September if necessary. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, emerging market economies such as India may experience capital flight, which will put greater pressure on the Indian currency and lead to its further depreciation. Industry observers estimate that the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar may reach 865,438+0-82 rupees by the end of this year, in the context of the sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the widening trade and current account deficit in India.

Abhishek goenka, founder and CEO of IFA Global, a foreign exchange consulting company, predicted that by the end of this year, the exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar would drop to 8 1 rupee pair 1 US dollar. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of the Ministry of Finance and Finrex Treasury Advisors, the rupee will drop to 80.50 rupees by September and stabilize at this level by 65,438+February. Anan Dellatti Co., Ltd. Jigar Trivedi, a research analyst at a stock brokerage firm, agrees. He said that by the end of 2022, the rupee will reach the level of 80.5-8 1.

However, according to financial services giant Nomura Securities, due to a series of negative factors, including the year-long interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the deterioration of India's balance of payments dynamics, the Indian currency may reach the rupee. July to September is $82 to $65,438 +0. However, Crisil, a rating and analysis company, is more optimistic: it predicts that the exchange rate will stabilize at 78 rupees 1 USD by March 2023. /? URL = % 2f 2022% 2f 08 12% 2 FFA 732885j 00 rgi 6 NK 000 DD 000 ki 00 big . jpg & amp； thumbnail = 660 x2 147483647 & amp； Quality = 80 & type = jpg