We have reservations about the expectation of interest rate reduction in the near future. Undoubtedly, steady growth has become the main consideration of current policy orientation. It is expected that the policy will be further relaxed, and the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning will be more biased towards the real economy and stabilize economic growth. But that doesn't just mean cutting interest rates. There are two reasons why we have reservations about the current interest rate cut: first, the benchmark interest rate focuses on the medium-term inflation level of more than one year, and the interest rate increase is slow and low during the period of rising inflation; Similarly, in the absence of external shocks, inflation has steadily declined and interest rates have been lowered slowly. Second, good steel is used in the cutting edge, and interest rate reduction is the "nuclear weapon" of monetary policy. We should make a good plan for the further deterioration of the European debt problem. In view of this, we believe that interest rate cuts are most likely to occur in two scenarios. First, the recent disorderly exit of Greece from the euro zone or the collapse of Spanish banks has triggered turmoil in the European banking system; Second, from the end of July to the beginning of August, the domestic economic data for the first half of the year was released, and the economic situation did not improve, so the interest rate cut was once to stimulate the economy.
Considering both steady growth and managing inflation expectations, asymmetric interest rate hikes are possible.