From the prefix "7" to the prefix "6", the stock market will definitely be indirectly affected: First, the impact of accelerated appreciation or higher on export enterprises will be very obvious, and the slowdown in export growth may become a trend. Judging from the stock market, the profits of export enterprises may be lowered, and import enterprises may benefit, especially the oil and aviation sectors; Secondly, the decline in external demand caused by accelerated appreciation will inevitably affect economic growth expectations. At present, most analysts expect that the economic growth will slow down to around 10.5% this year. The downward adjustment of economic growth rate is not good news for the stock market, but in the long run, if the economic structure is more balanced, it will also be conducive to the stable development of the stock market; Liquidity will also face two-way pressure. On the one hand, the reduction of surplus is conducive to alleviating excess liquidity; On the other hand, the experience of Japan and other countries shows that the attraction of accelerated appreciation to hot money is inevitable. The yen1985-199610 appreciated 2.5 times, and the stock market also tripled. In the long run, the appreciation of the local currency has obvious pulling effect on the stock market. One of the reasons is that hot money boosts asset bubbles, and the other reason is that appreciation brings about an increase in the valuation of some enterprises with local currency as their main assets, mainly including financial industry and real estate industry.
Further appreciation of RMB may bring short-term pain to many uncompetitive enterprises in China market, but it will also have some positive effects on China's economy. In the long run, it will help to correct China's economic imbalance, especially the pressure of trade surplus and overheating.
In fact, the negative impact of RMB appreciation has already appeared: the foreign exchange assets in the hands of residents and enterprises have shrunk, some export enterprises have fallen into survival crisis due to frequent trade frictions, and the expectation of RMB appreciation has led to the continuous inflow of international "hot money" ...
The appreciation of RMB will inevitably increase the economic cost of China enterprises and the operational difficulty of manufacturing enterprises. Especially in the initial stage when China enterprises generally go to the international market, get recognition from the international market, and collect profits from the international market, such price increase will inevitably bring the interest impact of enterprise value.
The appreciation of local currency has both advantages and disadvantages for a country's economy. As far as import and export are concerned, it mainly reduces the competitiveness of the export industry, leading to a decrease in exports. Excessive appreciation of the local currency will lead to a rapid decline in exports, putting the country at risk of a rapid decline in economic growth.