1.2020 Review: Since the beginning of 2020, the gold market has been affected by different factors at different stages, from the sudden outbreak of global epidemic in the first quarter, to the global liquidity crisis in the second quarter, to the ultra-loose monetary policy in the third quarter, to the moderate recovery of the global economy in the fourth quarter, and the final stage of the US presidential election and Britain's withdrawal from the EU negotiations, which provided sustainable momentum for the crazy rise of gold prices throughout the year. In 2020, the global central bank adopted infinitely loose monetary policy and interest rate policy, which made the global interest rate at an unprecedented low point, and even negative interest rates appeared in Japan and the euro zone. In this environment, the market's demand for capital turned to invest in the precious metal market headed by gold, and the global currency overshoot made the market worry about the acceleration of global inflation. In this macro background, the madness of the gold market is close to the peak. If the price of gold wants to maintain a high level all year round, it must rely on serious problems in the global political economy to boost the price of gold.
(Note: The chart data in this article is only used as part of the basis for transaction analysis and is not interpreted as real transaction data. The data comes from network-related statistics. )
Second, look to the future: the potential impact of news on gold 1, the opportunities brought by high inflation to gold.
Global currency overshoot drives the economy, and inflation follows. As an anti-inflation variety, gold is bound to become the first choice for value-added investment. In 2020, global central banks accelerated printing money to deal with the crisis. From March to June of 5438+00, the money supply in the United States increased by 37.08% year-on-year. That is to say, in the past seven months, the Federal Reserve printed 40% more funds, and this is only the United States. In fact, the world's major economies printed more than $9 trillion. In this wave of global central banks, you chase after me to print money crazily. We have noticed that the global industrial commodity prices will take off all the way in 2020, while Australia, which mainly exports resources, will benefit from the sharp rise in commodity prices, the sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar and the rapid appreciation of commodity currencies in 2020, which proves the speculation that inflation will accelerate in disguise.
In addition, through the economic analysis of the second half of the year, it is found that the house price in Britain reached a record high in August, the house sales data in the United States reached the highest value since 20 19, and the house prices in Japan and Canada are also rising rapidly. At the end of August, the Federal Reserve also proposed a balanced inflation target, allowing long-term low interest rates, high inflation and lagging interest rate hikes. On September 10, the European Central Bank also announced that it would keep interest rates at the current or lower level until inflation approaches the target, and the large-scale emergency bond purchase plan will continue even after the next interest rate hike. France, Germany, the Philippines, Singapore and Japan have also launched a new round of stimulus policies, and the fifth round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is also under way.
By the third quarter of 2020, the total assets of the world's three major central banks have reached an all-time high of 2 1 trillion dollars. However, compared with people's worries about global deflation in early 2020, the impact of massive water release by global central banks on the economy is a slow process. When most people fail to notice, inflation has quietly hit on 202 1. As a globally recognized anti-inflation variety, gold 202 1 will once again attract global attention and usher in unprecedented opportunities.
2. The impact of dollar collapse and global currency war on gold.
Considering that the global vaccine research and development progress exceeds expectations, and the global trade situation may ease after Biden's administration takes office, the safe-haven demand of the US dollar will be reduced, and the Fed's dovish stance also poses a greater threat to the US dollar. The emergence of vaccines indicates that the global economy will gradually recover in 20021year. Once the economy recovers, investors will give up American debt, which will lead to a decline in the price of American debt and an increase in the yield. As the yield curve of US Treasury bonds becomes steep due to rising inflation expectations, it will stimulate investors to hedge their exposure, and the decline of the US dollar will start ahead of schedule. If the global macro-economy recovers rapidly, the decline of the US dollar index will accelerate.
In 2020, the US dollar index fell from the highest 102.95 to 89.69, and the US dollar index fell by more than 10%. If the US stock market falls sharply by 5438+0 in 2026 and the credit spread widens, the dollar is likely to continue to fall, or even accelerate its decline. Once the dollar depreciates sharply, the pressure of currency appreciation in export-oriented countries will have a greater adverse impact on their commodity exports, especially.
It is worth noting that in June+February, 5438, Iraq, as the fourth largest oil producer in the world, suddenly announced that it would devalue its currency against the US dollar by about 20%, which was the largest devaluation in its history, because the Iraqi government, which lacked financial resources, was facing an economic crisis brought about by low oil prices and crude oil production reduction. And this may just be the beginning. With the collapse of the US dollar, commodity currencies will show unprecedented strength, which will force relevant countries to actively devalue their currencies to promote exports. In other words, the global currency war triggered by the collapse of the US dollar will begin one after another. At this time, the global central bank's demand for gold reserves will be particularly important. Global central banks will certainly try to devalue the dollar against other currencies. Of course, this is a competition without winners, because once they do, other currencies will depreciate. People will eventually realize that they must hold gold, and central banks will continue to increase their holdings of gold to replace the stability of the dollar.
3. The stimulation of geopolitics and risk events on gold prices.
202 1 The global situation will remain highly uncontrollable. First of all, when the epidemic can be effectively controlled is still unknown. At present, the food and drug administrations of the United States, Britain and other countries have passed some vaccine audits and are already injecting, but they are relatively awed by the effective period of the vaccine. Both presidents seem to be waiting for big data to ensure safety, especially Biden is very cautious about vaccines. At present, the number of patients has hit record highs, and France, Germany and Britain have successively declared a blockade. At the same time, the number of patients set a new record, and the virus mutated again, making it more contagious. If it cannot be effectively controlled, the market may once again fall into a liquidity crisis.
Second, Britain and the EU have reached an agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the EU. It is still unknown whether the EU and Britain can be perfectly integrated and turn into a geopolitical conflict crisis after Britain formally withdraws from the EU. Therefore, the prospect of Britain-Europe relations will play a positive role in the price of gold.
Third, the forecast of 202 1 gold trend is doomed to be eventful. The foreseeable rapid growth of global inflation and currency wars are inevitable, and economic and political conflicts from major countries around the world will also occur frequently. Gold's anti-inflation and hedging properties will show the greatest value, which will directly lead to a great increase in the structural demand for gold. As a scarce variety, the supply of gold has been limited. Considering the influence of resource reserves, mining conditions, technological progress and other factors, the current annual output of less than 5,000 tons may have been the peak of the annual output of gold. The rapid growth of global central bank, industry and investment demand will lead to the huge consumption of existing dynamic gold stocks. Most gold stocks will be used for central bank reserves, folk gold ornaments and industries, and few gold stocks can be used for investment. Compared with the global investment demand of more than 300 trillion dollars, it is obvious that the supply should not be met. Therefore, the price of gold will continue to rise in the future. Although there may be a slight correction in the middle, I believe there is still room for improvement in the long run.