Legend: USS Ford
According to the "War Zone" column of the American-driven website, a few days ago, NATO officially issued a statement saying that five aircraft carrier battle groups from the four countries of the United States, Britain, France and Italy will carry out a series of tasks in the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. The purpose of this action is to coordinate the reliable combat power in the Euro-Atlantic region and show the cohesion of NATO. Although it is not explicitly stated, NATO's actions are undoubtedly an attempt to crack down on Russia at a strategic level and put pressure on Russia when the war between Russia and Ukraine continues and the situation on the Polish border is tense.
The latest news shows that the British navy "Queen Elizabeth" is conducting exercises in the North Sea; Ford, the latest main aircraft carrier of the US Navy, is being deployed for the first time after its service, and is currently moored at Portsmouth Military Port, England. Another American aircraft carrier, USS Bush, is on a mission in the Adriatic Sea between Apennine Peninsula and Balkan Peninsula. The Italian Navy "Gafur" left its home port of taranto in June 5438+00 and should be active in the Mediterranean now. The French navy "De Gaulle" has just left Toulon and is active in the Mediterranean.
Legend: Italian Navy "Gafur" aircraft carrier
From the deployment point of view, the Mediterranean direction with three aircraft carrier battle groups is undoubtedly the focus of NATO muscle show. If the situation on the European continent changes, NATO believes that it is necessary to make a move. Three aircraft carrier battle groups can assemble in the Aegean Sea and then enter the Black Sea as appropriate.
Although there has been a rift between the United States, Europe and Turkey, Turkey, as a member of NATO, may not find any reason to prevent the NATO fleet from passing through the Turkish Strait. In the case that the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet "Moscow" has sunk, and the flagship of the Pacific Fleet "Varyag", which was previously active in the Mediterranean, has returned to the Far East and appeared around Japan, the Russian army is extremely short of large surface ships that can compete with NATO aircraft carrier battle groups in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
In the north, the Queen Elizabeth, currently active in the North Sea, should undertake the main tasks. However, because the Baltic Sea is relatively narrow, the fleet is vulnerable to Russian shore-to-ship missiles and aviation, so the British army should not be too close to the Russian coast. At present, the "Ford" anchored in the English Channel is in the middle support position, and it can go north to the Baltic Sea or south to the Mediterranean Sea according to the situation.
Legend: Queen Elizabeth of England
Although it seems to be a planned "normal operation", the time when NATO announced the news of the joint operation of five aircraft carriers can be said to be extremely subtle. The day before NATO's voice, two missiles fell into Poland, killing two people.
Although after a series of investigations, the parties probably determined that the two missiles came from the Ukrainian army. The United States and European countries, which have stood behind Ukraine for a long time, naturally cannot blame the Zelenski government for this incident, and the responsibility for this incident will eventually be pushed to the Russian side. According to US Secretary of State Blinken, regardless of the final investigation result, Russia bears the ultimate responsibility for the accident.
Legend: The missile fell into a Polish village, killing two people.
In addition to the five major aircraft carrier battle groups at sea, NATO's actions in continental Europe are also worthy of attention. After the missile incident, the Polish army has entered a state of readiness. The German government has just proposed that NATO send fighter troops to Poland. Before the missile incident, NATO had sent a large number of ground troops to Romania, Poland and other places. The 10 1 air assault division, one of the main forces of the US military, entered Europe for the first time after World War II, and was deployed on the Romanian border, ready to enter Ukraine.
However, NATO's offensive attitude towards Russia with the help of the Polish missile incident is not unrelated to the changes in the frontline war situation. With the arrival of winter, Ukraine's counterattack seems to have reached the end of its tether. Although fighting continues in various places, Ukraine has not made any new breakthroughs. At present, Ukrainian troops are mobilizing in the direction of Zaborozh, and Zelensky predicts that the government will launch another attack in this direction before the end of the year.
Legend: According to Russian news, reinforcements from about two brigades of the Ukrainian army arrived at the front line of Zaporoze.
On the other hand, under the influence of factors such as the completion of the recruitment of reserve forces and entering the battlefield, the Russian army has stabilized the situation and may be planning new attacks. In this case, Kiev took precautions and began to build fortifications on the border between Ukraine and Belarus ahead of schedule, blowing up all bridges and laying minefields to prevent Russian troops from attacking Belarus again and going straight to Kiev. Therefore, NATO's new round of military mobilization has the meaning of reminding Putin that the government can leave at any time.
In the face of NATO's offensive posture, the Putin government also clearly felt it. The Russian Foreign Ministry is currently "at war" with the United States, Wooper and other countries over the Polish missile incident, and especially reminds Brussels that Ukraine and Poland are trying to provoke a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Militarily, the Russian military's actions have not stopped, large-scale missile attacks on cities are still going on, explosions have been heard in Kharkov, Kiev and other places, and Iranian drones have been frequently used on the battlefield.
It can be seen that the Putin government has actually been riding a tiger since the war, and NATO is also aggravating the tension in Europe in order to support Ukraine's offensive posture. Although the two sides have exercised restraint for the time being, it is not impossible for NATO to confront Russia directly once the frontline war situation is reversed again.
Extended reading:
Russian Deputy Prime Minister actively urged China to speed up deployment and open its doors to Russian grain.
China and Russia recently held an online meeting on agricultural cooperation and other issues. During the meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev, who is in charge of Far East affairs, took the initiative to express Russia's willingness to continuously increase its grain exports to China, and put forward the "China-Russia New Grain Land Corridor" project in particular, hoping that China can speed up the cooperation process within the framework of this project. Behind Trutnev's move, it just reflects the urgency of Russian agricultural products export.
Legend: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev is in charge of Far East affairs in Putin's government.
According to Sputnik, Trutnev said that the focus of the new Sino-Russian grain corridor is the trans-shipment center outside Baikal, close to the China border. Russia has completed the construction and officially opened the transshipment center with an annual grain throughput of 8 million tons. Now I hope China can consider it and speed up the relevant deployment in China. Judging from Trutnev's statement, Russia is actually euphemistically urging China to prepare for the reception and further open its doors to Russian grain through this corridor as soon as possible.
The Russian side suddenly paid so much attention to the "Sino-Russian new grain land corridor", a cooperative project that started on 20 16, mainly because of problems in Russian grain export. Although the climate is cold, Russia has long been an important food exporter in the world because of its fertile land and high degree of mechanization.
In 20021year, Russia earned US$ 37.7 billion through the export of agricultural products, of which the export profit of grain crops reached US$11400 million. Grain export has become an important source of foreign exchange for Russia except energy. The Russian government also imposed high tariffs on grain exports to increase fiscal revenue.
Legend; The granary built by Russia in the Outer Baikal Territory
In the context of this year's bumper grain harvest in Russia, the total output can reach 65438+300 million tons. The Putin government originally expected that Russia could export 30 million tons of grain in the second half of this year. However, contrary to expectations, Russia's grain exports eventually got into trouble in the "invisible sanctions" of the West. Because western banks, insurance companies and shipping companies all refuse to cooperate with Russia, Russia's traditional grain export channels have gone wrong. Originally, it took the Black Sea, crossed the Turkish Strait into the Mediterranean, and then went to the Middle East and Africa.
In July and August this year, Russian wheat exports once fell to the lowest level since 20 17-20 18. Compared with the reduction of the total amount, what makes the Russian authorities more nervous is that traditional Russian food importing countries such as South Africa are now giving up purchasing Russian food because of transportation and other problems. In the long run, Russia's position in the international grain market will be shaken, which will also directly affect the fiscal revenue of Putin's government. In the fierce front-line war, financial revenue is now a door for Moscow.
Legend: Russian grain production
In addition, blocked exports will directly affect the income of Russian grain enterprises. After all, Russia's population is less than 200 million, and it is difficult for Putin's government to solve the problem of grain sales by exporting to domestic sales. If the grain cannot be exported smoothly for a long time, it will inevitably lead to the closure of a large number of enterprises and even affect agricultural production next year. There are already many dealers and farmers in Russia who complain that exports are blocked.
In order to solve the problem of grain export, Putin's government turned its attention to China, mainly because it saw the huge market potential of China. In 20021year, China imported about1640,000 tons of grain from the international market, including about 96 million tons of soybeans. China imported more than 9.7 million tons of wheat, the most important export crop of Russia, last year. China also imported about 6,543,800 tons of barley, another important Russian food crop.
While China mainly imported food from the United States, Australia, Canada, Brazil and other countries before, the market share of Russian food in China was very small. Therefore, Russia's current calculation is to try to compete with other countries for the market by relying on its proximity to China and stable bilateral relations. As long as we can win most of China's markets, we can ensure the basic stability of exports.
Legend: Grain import data of China in 20021year. Source: Hebei Grain and Material Reserve Bureau Network.
However, judging from the fact that China is not in a hurry to promote the "Sino-Russian New Grain Corridor" project, I'm afraid it's hard for Russia to do so this time. After all, China itself is a big grain-producing country, and the output on its own land can basically meet the domestic demand for rations. Most imported soybeans are mainly used for oil extraction and animal husbandry. Imported wheat is mainly high-quality special wheat, with less domestic output. Therefore, China is not in urgent need of Russian food.
Legend: Russia's grain transportation railway in the Far East
China's previous cooperation with Russia in the field of grain is more to enrich the ways of grain import, so as to fine-tune its own import ways and face the changes in the international situation. After 20 17 Sino-US trade friction, China's food imports from France increased sharply. Under the background that Sino-US and China-Australia relations are still tense, China can indeed appropriately reduce the grain imports from North America and Australia and buy some Russian grain.
However, regarding Sino-Russian grain trade, China should still slowly increase Russian grain imports at its own pace. It should not happen that Russia expects to see a large amount of Russian grain enter the China market and quickly occupy the market share.