Macro-development of real estate market
Before 20 14, Russia's real estate market was in a stable state, and house prices did not rise sharply. However, since 20 14, the trend of housing prices in different cities in Russia has been divided. House prices in big cities began to rise.
Take two Russian cities as examples, the house price in Moscow has risen to 227,000 rubles per square meter, and St. Petersburg has also risen to103,000 rubles. In 2065,438+04, house prices in the two cities rose by 6.5% and 66,5438+0% respectively. However, in other cities, house prices show a slight upward or downward trend.
The growth of housing mortgage loans is slow
In 20 14, the scale of housing mortgage loans in Russia expanded again, and the overall scale climbed to 50.27 billion rubles, up 4.73% year-on-year. Last year, the Russian government introduced the real estate market incentive plan, and the scale of mortgage loans increased slightly, with the total loan amount climbing to 51500 million rubles. In the case of poor macroeconomic performance, mortgage loans have maintained growth, which is related to government policy support on the one hand and housing investment purposes on the other. Many Russian families are worried about the devaluation of the ruble, so they actively invest in real estate and manage their finances through housing mortgage loans, thus maintaining the steady growth of housing loans.
According to statistics, the mortgage interest rate accepted by the Russian people is around 15%, and the current mortgage interest rate is slightly higher than the public's psychological goal, but many buyers still apply for mortgages.
20 16 Russian housing price trend
With the global economic depression, Russian economy and real estate market, like China and other countries, have entered a state of stagnation and recession. In 20 16, the demand for new houses in Russia decreased, and the development volume and market supply of new houses also decreased, because? House prices will also maintain a slow downward trend and be generally stable.
In terms of commercial real estate, the demand for commercial buildings in Russia has also declined, and most companies have shrunk or adjusted their business content, reducing the demand for shopping malls and office buildings.
Why can't the house price in China compare with that in Russia?
First of all, Russia's housing prices have risen by 6.5438+0.5 million times, because in the past 20 years, Russia has frequently experienced serious economic crises or even recessions, and the ruble has also been replaced by the old one. The latest one is now, and it has depreciated by more than half in 20 14 years. At the beginning of 20 15, it continued to depreciate by 30%, in other words, it depreciated by 70%. Of course there are many reasons. Putin said China's demand slowed down, and China said the United States increased its oil supply. Anyway, oil can't be sold, Russia has no source of income, and the economy is in a serious recession. So it should be said that the ruble has depreciated too much, not the house has risen too much. What about China? Is there such a basis? Not at all, because of our special foreign exchange settlement system, the performance of RMB at home and abroad is completely different. In the first ten years, foreign appreciation and domestic depreciation, and in the second ten years, foreign depreciation is likely to have stronger domestic purchasing power. Secondly, Russia's economic model is to sell oil and gas, which is a completely black sheep-style national development model, selling what our ancestors left behind. Russia's light industry and heavy industry are almost finished, only military industry can make do, but he is not in other people's political camp, so it is difficult to sell money. Therefore, once no one wants energy, Russia will immediately run a serious deficit and fall into collapse. Once energy prices rise, Russia will once again throw its weight around. Therefore, the fluctuation of ruble is the fluctuation of energy market. When it goes up, it's a bubble, and when it goes down, it all explodes. For example, since 20 15, house prices in Moscow, Russia have been falling. So is the house in Moscow preserved? It's just that some of his own politicians and rich people buy houses there. Rich people in other countries rarely buy them, and they have never heard of China's rich robbing Russian houses. So I just lied to my own game. No one thought he would appreciate it. Let's go back to China. Our economic model is relatively healthy, and it has always been a strong engine before export. But our export situation is processing with imported materials, that is, iron ore is imported first, then made into steel bars, then twisted into components, and then sold to foreigners. So there must be a surplus. And it has always been a surplus, there will be no deficit. Once there is a deficit, it means that all import and export enterprises have lost money. If the RMB fluctuates like a ruble, it is estimated that money will be the same everywhere. Because it is inevitable that the national economy will collapse first, and then the currency will depreciate sharply. So at that time, it was not about investment and housing. The most serious problem should be eating. Third, Russia is not an investor, and no one will go to an energy exporting country to engage in economy. Western capital investment targets are mainly manufacturing countries like China, where they will set up factories and turn China into the headquarters of the Asia-Pacific Center. So there is no problem of hot money going in and out of Russia. Their high housing prices are simply caused by the polarization between the rich and the poor. The richest Russians buy houses in Moscow. Of course, the house price in Moscow is the highest. St. Petersburg, which ranks second, is not even a step higher than Moscow, and even half lower than the average price in Moscow. After St. Petersburg, housing prices in other cities are normal, ranging from 5,000 to 6,000 RMB. So this bubble looks very stable, equivalent to a country above a city. As long as it wants to do business in Russia and as long as it is engaged in politics in Russia, it must live in Moscow. They will not flee because of the economic downturn. Most of these rich people in Moscow are also politicians and businessmen. They made a fortune by reselling national resources. They are really inseparable from the country. China is different again. We are an invested country, and capital flow is a normal phenomenon. Once the investment opportunities in China decrease, international capital will inevitably withdraw. Due to the special foreign exchange settlement system, it will inevitably lead to the reduction of market funds. Therefore, if the renminbi does not re-enter the road of appreciation in the future, the danger of deflation will exist for a long time.
Therefore, no matter from which aspect, China's housing prices can't be compared with Russian ones. On the contrary, it is exactly the same as Japan in that year. The same manufacturing countries, the same import and export methods of processing raw materials, the same surplus countries, the same local currency rising first and then falling, the same demographic dividend, the same desire expansion, all want to buy the United States, and even the position of the world economy is the same.
Of course, the comparison also gives us some enlightenment. Although the chances of taking the Russian road are small and impossible, in fact, we want to live as developed as the United States and as happy as Europe. Nobody wants to be a landlord in Moscow, Russia. This requires us to learn several lessons from the Russian story.
First, the mode of selling energy will die out, including the Middle East, because energy will upgrade one day. The breakthrough of shale oil technology in the United States has dealt a heavy blow to oil exporting countries. If electric cars run all over the streets in the future, oil exporting countries will become the poorest places in the world. Therefore, scientific and technological progress should be the top priority for economic development. Just like work, being the boss is the most promising (Americans) and working for others is not bad (Germans, Japanese, China people). Those who are buried the most belong to the black sheep, so why divide them into the second generation! For example, the Middle East, Venezuela, Russia and Brazil simply have no ability to resist economic risks, especially technological breakthrough risks.
Second, urban functions are scattered and industries are scattered. If all industries in China are concentrated in Beijing and other places are rural areas, then Beijing's housing prices will be the first in the world. Because people who do business have to run here. But fortunately, we still have Shanghai, Shenzhen, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Tianjin. These places share the pressure of Beijing, but this is not enough. More cities are needed to become the center of an industry, and of course politics should also be decentralized. Ministries and commissions are all in Beijing, and exchanges are all in Shanghai. This is the problem. Decentralize exchanges, medical resources, ministries, and educational resources. Only in this way can the industry return and the working population return, which is the most fundamental way to destock and reduce leverage. Now we are also working hard in this direction, but the resistance is really not small.
Third, maintain financial stability and monetary stability. This is the most important point of a market economy country. From this perspective, the performance of the central bank can actually give high marks. Everyone always thinks that the central bank is releasing water, but in fact he only has interest rates and exchange rates in mind. If the interest rate goes up and the central bank doesn't release water, then once the financial risk breaks out, it will be out of control. Replacing high-risk development loans with safer personal loans is also an important means to maintain financial security. If I were the governor of the central bank, I would certainly do the same. Because there is no way out, the bubble will not die on its own, and the risk will not dissipate automatically, so it can only be transferred. Transfer the financial risk of the whole people to some speculators Try not to let the exchange rate depreciate, and try to limit the outflow of foreign exchange by administrative control to buy time for reform, debt transfer and risk replacement.
On the whole, the Russian real estate market is in a state of oversupply. In 20 16, house prices in big cities may drop slightly. According to Standard & Poor's forecast, Russian house prices will fall by about 5%. The central bank raised key interest rates to increase loan costs and curb investment enthusiasm in the real estate market.
The above is about Russian housing prices, I hope to help you!
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