What will be the impact of Brexit becoming a reality?

——People’s Livelihood Macro

According to Bloomberg reports, the result of the British vote is to leave the European Union. What impact will Brexit have?

Global capital markets will be shaken violently. First of all

First of all, this is the first time that all referendums in Europe have changed the status quo. In the past referendums in France and the Netherlands in 2005, Scotland in 2014, and Greece and Denmark in 2015, the results were to maintain the status quo. This time Brexit exceeded expectations. Secondly, before the public investment, the volatility of major global assets and exchange rates did not increase significantly, indicating that the market did not fully price the risk of Brexit and was significantly underestimated. Today The spectacular market prices of gold and sterling can also prove that the subsequent direct and indirect impacts of Brexit will continue to ferment and are not a simple regional event.

How serious is the loss-lose situation?

The essence of EU integration is the full flow of factors, including the cross-border flow of capital services, commodity trade and the free flow of human capital: in terms of capital flows, the UK’s net foreign direct investment accounts for the EU’s share Correspondingly, 15% of the EU’s foreign investment is invested in the UK; in terms of merchandise trade, the UK’s trade deficit with the EU accounts for 50% of its total deficit; the flow of human capital comes from Look, the proportion of non-British and EU employed people in the overall employed population in the UK has increased year by year, and is currently as high as 6.8%. Brexit will cause huge damage to both sides.

What impact will it have on the UK? The clear disadvantages in the short term outweigh the unclear benefits. First, you cannot enjoy the benefits of the EU's "single market": barriers to the flow of capital, goods, and manpower have increased, and various alternative agreements cannot be immediately implemented in the short term. achieved, creating a vacuum period and creating obvious resistance to economic growth; second, impacting the low level of its global financial center: the financial industry contributes nearly 10% of the UK's GDP, and the London market's foreign exchange trading volume accounts for about 40% of the world's , London accounts for about 60% of the global offshore center bond stock. Once Brexit occurs and a new agreement cannot be reached in the short term, many financial institutions established in London will move back to Europe, which will hit the financial industry. Huge; third, the domestic labor market has been affected: the proportion of the British labor force has been declining since 2009, but the number of people from the European Union among the British employed population has increased year by year, reaching as high as 2.16 million in 2016, accounting for the total employment 6.8%, so the UK relies heavily on the EU working population to support the economy.

What impact will it have on major asset classes? Brexit has triggered a decline in global investors' risk appetite, which is generally positive for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, gold, and the Japanese yen, and negative for risk assets such as stocks, emerging market currencies, and crude oil. Since Brexit will hurt both sides in the short term, it is negative for the pound and the euro.

What impact will it have on the monetary policies of major countries?

With Brexit coming true, there will be a huge earthquake in global assets, a decline in risk appetite, and tighter liquidity. Central banks of various countries will focus on easing, and tightening will be postponed. Central banks of various countries should have made liquidity preparations and emergency arrangements for this. . From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the euro

The pound has fallen sharply + risk aversion has pushed up the strength of the US dollar, and interest rates are likely to be absent during the year; from the Bank of Japan's perspective, it has not increased easing in the past three months + risk aversion has pushed up the daily As the yen strengthens, the Bank of Japan may directly intervene in the foreign exchange market to restrain the yen's strength, and it is likely to increase easing in July. From the perspective of the European Central Bank, the road to easing is difficult to turn back and is stuck in a quagmire.

What impact will it have on crude oil prices? The valuation factors of the appreciation of the US dollar have suppressed + the economic impact of Brexit has caused global demand to decline + risk aversion = there is greater downward pressure on crude oil prices

How will it affect the RMB exchange rate? According to the stress test of different scenarios, in the optimal scenario, the pound and euro fall by 10%, and the US dollar index rises to 99. If CFETS remains unchanged, the theoretical maximum depreciation pressure on the RMB central parity rate is -2.53 % to

6.74; in the worst case scenario, the pound and euro fall by 30%, and the US dollar index rises to 114. If CFETS remains unchanged, the theoretical maximum depreciation pressure on the RMB central parity rate is -7.5% to 7.0. However, considering the current exchange rate logic of CFETS and the central parity rate walking on two legs, the central bank can share the depreciation pressure of the central parity rate through a slight appreciation of CFETS, and the two legs can withstand pressure better.

Brexit means the rebirth of Europe

——Private Economics and Ethics

Although some people do not want to see Brexit, they will The consequences may be regarded as a tragedy, but this view is really meaningless: Brexit is not only not a tragedy, but the end of the tragedy, which is not only beneficial to the United Kingdom itself, but may also mean the re-emergence of old Europe.

Britain

Brexit will sound the clarion call for the disintegration of the European Union. In itself, it is gratifying that the British people and businesses have escaped heavy regulation and highly protectionist policies. Only by leaving the EU can the UK have the opportunity to re-establish true free trade relations with

European countries and other countries around the world. Even if it is temporarily boycotted by some countries in the EU, it will soon break this solid cartel alliance one by one by relying on its free trade relations with other countries.

As far as Europe is concerned, the process of political integration has been forced to interrupt, and the possibility of a comprehensive disintegration of the alliance has greatly increased. It is also expected to promote the separation of European nation-states themselves, and help the entire Europe return to prosperity. The modern pattern of numerous small and medium-sized countries. This will only promote institutional competition among regions, thereby inhibiting the introduction of short-sighted, narrow-minded and extremely harmful policies in various countries.

Those

those intoxicated welfare states therefore face greater pressure and are forced to change course faster. The wave of immigrants attracted by the "social welfare" pie will also be indirectly suppressed. I would like to remind everyone that the immigrant groups attracted by welfare policies are completely different from the immigrant groups attracted by liberal policies. No matter how many benefits you give to the former, they will still find it unfair. They are like "farmers and farmers". The reprint of "Snake"; and all the latter needs is a free market environment that allows

one's own labor to be free from restraint and exploitation.

Finally

Brexit itself will not affect free trade and migration at all, and even the disintegration of the entire EU will not. Fundamentally speaking, free trade and migration do not require any agreement between any country. As long as each country reduces tariffs, trade and migration barriers to zero, free trade and migration can be achieved with each other. migrate. Just like from the late 19th century to before World War I, various countries adopted loose policies, and European people could freely enter and exit European countries without any passports. Any suggestion that trade integration also requires political integration is completely baseless nonsense.

Europe is caught in a deep political, economic and social crisis. At this critical moment, once the UK successfully leaves the EU, it will bring economic prosperity and vitality back to the UK and even old Europe, and ultimately restore its past freedom and glory. Read the original text

Brexit is a global shock! Five major changes will occur in your life

——CCTV Finance

1. Trade and investment negotiations may encounter challenges

Considering China’s economic size and international status , even if the UK leaves the EU, the probability that the EU and the UK will raise tariffs on China is low, so the impact of Brexit on China's existing trade will be very limited. The UK has always supported the trade liberalization process between China and the EU. If the UK withdraws from the EU, the progress of negotiations between China and the EU may be affected.

2. Pressure on RMB depreciation may resume

The Federal Reserve will only be late to raise interest rates, and Brexit may push up the U.S. dollar index. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and Brexit comes together, the RMB is likely to experience renewed depreciation pressure.

3. The referendum result has become an important factor affecting the trend of A-shares

Last week, as soon as the Federal Reserve announced that it would suspend interest rate increases, the British "Brexit" referendum became a factor, including An important factor in the nerves of global stock markets including A shares.

As of the close on the 23rd, the Shanghai Stock Index fell 0.47% and fell below 2,900 points again. Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that the British “Brexit” referendum has increased the risk aversion sentiment in A-shares. However, the current market is still range-bound, and the probability of a big rise or fall is low.

4. "Brexit" has both advantages and disadvantages for studying abroad: tuition fees are lower but prices are higher

Generally speaking, changes in the cost of studying abroad are due to various factors such as exchange rates, prices, and employment* **Same effect.

On the one hand, if "Brexit" is successful, the pound will definitely face greater depreciation pressure, which will naturally lower the exchange rate of the pound against the RMB. For those studying abroad, tuition fees will definitely be reduced a lot.

On the other hand, some experts said that "if the UK succeeds in leaving the EU, its trade partnership with the EU will definitely loosen in the short term." This part of the loss can only be made up by raising prices. Coupled with the unfavorable economic environment, the overall price of goods in the UK will rise, and the living expenses of international students will also "rise."

5. If the pound weakens, it will reduce the cost of traveling to the UK and make shopping more affordable

Will "Brexit" make it more difficult to apply for a British visa? In fact, Chinese citizens traveling to the UK need to apply for a separate tourist visa, which is different from the Schengen visa common to the 26 Schengen countries in Europe. Therefore, "Brexit" will not make it more difficult for China to apply for a visa to the UK.

In addition, if the pound depreciates, it will be beneficial to traveling and shopping in the UK. Buying the same product in the UK will cost less RMB. As for overseas shopping, it will be more affordable for individuals to purchase goods on local shopping websites through forwarding companies. However, due to the complexity of channels and pricing of e-commerce platforms, it is difficult to predict the direct impact.

Brexit is a foregone conclusion! Where will Li Ka-shing go?

The voting results are determined! The British referendum decided to leave the European Union.

As of noon on June 24, Beijing time, the Brexiteers won the referendum with 51.7% support and will leave the EU, and the pound fell by 10%.

Li

Ka-shing’s huge investments cover the fields of British electricity, port and rail transportation, real estate, oil and gas. It can be said that he controls the lifeline industries of the British people. Every British Everyone lives a "Li's life."

Leaving the EU has a direct impact on the British economy

How big of an impact will it have on Li Ka-shing? Various data show that 56% of Li Ka-shing's investments are in Europe, 37% of which are in the UK. Li Ka-shing has previously invested heavily in the UK and was once described as "buying" by the British media "The Daily Telegraph" More than half of Britain." Next, the investment adjustment for most of the UK may make the future battle even more difficult for investors like Li Ka-shing.

Since Li Ka-shing has successively invested his assets in the UK, the shares of his CK Hutchison Company have fallen by about 30%. At the same time, Li Ka-shing's assets have also shrunk. In view of the fact that the risk of Brexit will cause the exchange rate of the pound and the euro to fluctuate, Li Ka-shing's flagship company CK Hutchison also recently pointed out that violent exchange rate fluctuations are eroding the profits of its port and retail businesses.

However, the impact is on the one hand. Li Ka-shing also hinted in an exclusive interview with the media that he is ready for Brexit: "Even if the UK leaves the EU, it will not be the end of the world.

Excerpted from Baidu netizen, thank you.