Officials of the Bank of China have voiced their voices this year, asking the IMF to consider adding RMB to the SDR currency basket, treating it equally with the US dollar, euro, pound and yen.
According to Standard Chartered Bank's estimation, if RMB joins SDR, countries may increase onshore China's national debt by 6.2 trillion yuan (about 1 trillion US dollars) before 2020.
Puyin AXA said that110.6 trillion US dollars of global foreign exchange reserves will be converted into RMB assets. Puyin AXA did not give a time frame for the completion of the asset transfer.
Aidan Yao, an emerging market economist at Puyin AXA, said in Hong Kong today, "What is important is the significance of the IMF's inclusion of RMB in SDR: RMB, as an international reserve currency, has obtained the seal permission of the IMF. This is likely to lead to the reorganization of the international currency reserve portfolio. "
According to the data of Global Banking Financial Telecommunication Association, RMB ranked fifth in the global payment currency ranking in March. According to the forecast of Standard Chartered Bank, the probability that RMB will be allowed to join SDR this year is 60%.
The revaluation of RMB by IMF will be officially released in the next few months. At the beginning of May, the IMF changed its attitude towards RMB for the first time, saying that RMB will no longer be undervalued in the near future. This statement weakened the long-standing criticism of the United States on China's exchange rate policy, and it was the first time in more than a decade that the IMF announced its attitude towards the RMB in terms close to "reasonable valuation".
Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in today's research report that "the RMB generally meets the requirements of joining SDR. Even if the IMF decides not to include RMB temporarily this year, we think the probability of RMB joining in 2020 will be higher. At the same time, it does not rule out the possibility that the IMF will make an exception to inspect the currency basket in advance. "
According to IMF data, the proportion of USD in SDR currency basket is 4 1.9%, EUR is 37.4%, GBP is 1 1.3%, and JPY is 9.4%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted in March that the proportion of RMB may reach 13%. HSBC mentioned in its notes in April that the proportion of RMB may reach 14%.
Standard Chartered Bank analysts said, "20 15 RMB joining SDR will obviously affect the market, and funds will immediately flood into RMB-denominated assets."