What new changes have taken place in the investment environment of 20 19?

The slogan "Live" at the autumn meeting of 20180,000 families indicates that the winter of real estate has arrived, which has aroused many people's anxiety. Accelerating the withdrawal of funds and shrinking the front line have become the primary goals of major housing enterprises. In fact, it is not only the real estate industry, but also Ren said at Huawei's 20 18 strategy meeting: "Living is Huawei's highest strategy."

With the slogan of "live", major enterprises set off a wave of layoffs. From Meituan and JD.COM of Internet companies to Greentown and Country Garden of real estate companies, at least 16 companies laid off employees in 20 18, reducing the recruitment scale.

In fact, the financial industry should be the first to feel the cold winter of 20 18. "Capital winter" has long been a high-frequency word in the venture capital circle. Tight monetary environment, increasingly strict financial supervision, unresolved Sino-US trade war, and credit crisis caused by frequent thunderstorms in P2P industry, the "money shortage" is particularly obvious in 20 18, and this trend seems to be difficult to find an inflection point in 20 19.

In such an investment environment, the industry is more cautious from the perspective of capital. Debt financing and financing costs are no longer as decisive as before, and equity funds PE and VC are not like the era of mass entrepreneurship and innovation.

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20 19 what is your judgment on the capital market?

In 20 19, steady growth is still the primary goal of economic development. From the specific macro indicators, according to economist Yu Shao, the boundary of relevant policy formulation is "guarantee 678", that is, GDP growth rate is "guarantee 6", RMB exchange rate is "guarantee 7" and M2 growth rate is "guarantee 8". RMB exchange rate will be affected by interest spread in the short term, inflation in the medium term and labor productivity in the long term. In the context of the complicated international situation, protecting the exchange rate is to protect confidence. In addition, it remains to be seen whether the 3 trillion foreign exchange reserves can be maintained.

In terms of liquidity, the delivery of M2 will return to the normal track. And through appropriate policy guidance, guide the flow of credit to the private enterprise sector and the real economy, so as to ensure the relative stability of finance, economy and asset prices.

In 20 19, the A-share market facing the bottom of valuation may have overseas capital inflows, and some themes such as science and technology innovation board and 5G may bring new impetus to the whole market, so I think investors with higher risk appetite can slowly lay out A-shares.

In the fixed income market, the domestic inflation pressure is downward at present, the Federal Reserve is at the end of raising interest rates, the monetary policy of the Bank of China tends to be loose, and the RRR interest rate has been cut in an all-round way at the beginning of the new year, which increases the probability of a targeted downward adjustment of market interest rates in the future. Therefore, locking in some high-quality fixed-income products now will help to counter the downward trend of future market interest rates.

As for the floating market, the secondary market will be more active than the primary market. The current policy actively supports the secondary market. The secondary market is in the historical position of valuation, and loose monetary policy will improve liquidity, so the stock market will benefit and rebound as a whole, but the profit of the stock market is still declining, so the shock will intensify during the disclosure of financial reports. The primary market will lag behind and show signs of recovery, while the M&A market will lead in the primary market because of policy support.

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What suggestions do you have for the asset allocation of conservative, conservative and radical investors?

Starting from the new asset management regulations, the first step that asset management institutions need to do is to identify investors. As a practitioner, we should help investors identify what kind of investment style or investment preference and risk preference they have; Step two, we can match the right assets for our customers.

At a deeper level, since the financial reform, a series of policies have made investors face many difficulties, and 20 19 was a confused year. There are too many variables and too many influencing factors. What will happen to the Sino-US trade war? Can private enterprises in the real economy get rid of the dilemma of credit contraction, including whether market-oriented reform can reshape the business environment? These are very uncertain.

At the same time, we think that Matthew effect may be intensified at 20 19. Many central enterprises and large enterprises can get money from banks or capital, but more small and medium-sized enterprises still can't get financing. Therefore, from the perspective of big investment strategy, we still advise investors to look at the big trend and choose some physical industries with industrial upgrading, because it is a very big strategy for the whole country to get rid of virtual reality now, and investors still put more money on some understandable or logically clear assets.

For conservative investors, it may be more appropriate to choose some relatively stable channels, such as trust funds, but the core logic of investment is: the underlying assets can be clearly seen, who the money is invested in, what the money is used for, and what to pay back in the end. This logic is very clear in some industries.

For relatively radical customers, instead, we suggest allocating some secondary markets, including allocating some overseas investments. In fact, we think that the current situation of China's capital market and the valuation of the secondary market are already very low. Even if you invest in some PE projects, you might as well invest in the secondary market, because the prices of some industries in the secondary market have been upside down, which may be cheaper than the price of a PE you invest in and the relative risk is lower. Of course, this should be based on the customer's real risk preference and financial situation.

For stable customers, the core logic is that investors should invest in assets with transparent bottom and clear repayment logic.

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In addition, some real estate projects, consumer finance, supply chain finance, and some upgraded and transformed industries are all opportunities we feel. As long as we find the core enterprises, we can invest and cooperate for a long time.

At the same time, there are opportunities in science and technology industries and consumer services, such as electronics, components, software, information services, and consumer services, such as media, tourism, commerce, and leisure services. However, in-depth reconciliation analysis is needed when selecting counterparties.

On the whole, the opportunity lies in the discovery of 20 19, in which science and technology innovation board provided the policy catalyst and improved the liquidity, which obviously promoted the growth of small and medium-sized stocks. Shi Sheng Yongan's professional team will constantly optimize its selection according to the rapid changes in the market.

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How do investors often choose between investment income and investment safety? What advice will Shi Sheng Yongan give?

Income is directly proportional to the high probability of risk, and excluding some opportunistic investments may win high income. This may be human greed. Or many customers are lucky, or the institutions or financial management chosen by customers may not be so professional.

As mentioned above, investors should first make self-judgment on their risk preference. For a conservative or relatively stable customer, we still insist that 10% return is a threshold. Unless it's a customized product, I think the return of more than 10% in the current market needs to be very cautious. I think the return of private placement products within 10% is relatively reasonable.

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In the next stage, where are the development opportunities of asset management institutions?

In my opinion, the development trend of asset management may tend to be more refined. You can choose several industry directions and then do it in depth and detail.

For example, we have now abandoned the investment logic of "casting a wide net and buying a track" in many institutions in the early years. At present, it is basically to choose a small number of partners, concentrate resources with heavy punches, and then focus on several industries or enterprises through in-depth and long-term cooperation to provide more support for these industries and enterprises. It gives us more profits and investment opportunities brought by growth. I think this may be the next few asset management companies, including small ones.