The RMB has continued to depreciate recently. In fact, in my opinion, the reason is very simple, that is, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, and the extent of interest rate increases will increase. This will inevitably cause a decline in the global dollar returned to the United States, but China did not follow the Fed's tightening measures and continued to provide sufficient liquidity support. It also lowered the deposit reserve ratio across the board. The divergence in the monetary policies of China and the United States caused the RMB exchange rate to depreciate against the US dollar.
The depreciation of the RMB needs to be viewed from both positive and negative aspects:
From the positive side, the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to export-oriented enterprises. Export enterprises plan in US dollars, and the depreciation of the RMB will This means that overseas prices can be lowered and the cost-effectiveness of products can be improved. Industries including clothing and textiles will benefit from the depreciation of the RMB and improve their operating conditions.
On the negative side, import costs will increase, which will mainly affect the import of raw materials and energy. Through transmission, it will increase the costs of midstream companies and increase end consumer prices; at the same time, the depreciation of the RMB , will further promote capital outflows, affect RMB assets, and be negative for the stock and bond markets.
However, from an objective point of view, the RMB has appreciated for a period of time, and the room for appreciation is not small, leaving room for depreciation. Although there is a short-term depreciation, it is still around 6.5, which is much higher than 7.18 in 2020, so the impact of fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate on the economy and capital market is limited, but it will have a certain impact on monetary policy, making the country have reservations about continuing monetary easing.