Question 2: Explain why China has always been the main reason for the double balance of payments surplus in combination with the impact of international balance of payments imbalance on the economy.
One of the reasons: the structural imbalance of China's economic savings exceeding consumption.
For a long time, China's domestic economy has been characterized by low consumption and high savings. The proportion of China's final consumption rate in GDP dropped from more than 62% in 1980s to 52. 1% in 2005, and the consumption rate of residents also dropped from 48.8% in 199 1 to 38.2% in 2005, both reaching the lowest level in history. The savings rate rose from 38.9% of 200 1 to 47.9% in 2005, a rapid increase of 9 percentage points in five years. Insufficient consumption leads to excessive savings, while high savings leads to high lending and high investment. In the case of sluggish domestic consumption, the excess capacity formed by high investment can only be released through exports, resulting in a growing trade surplus.
The second reason: China's long-term export-oriented policy.
Since the reform and opening up, in order to solve the contradiction between the shortage of funds and foreign exchange and economic development, China has adopted a series of preferential policies to encourage exports, developed the export-oriented economy along the coast, especially the merger reform of RMB exchange rate from 65438 to 0994, which has effectively promoted exports. After 1998, in response to the weak export and sluggish domestic demand after the Asian financial crisis, the state adjusted the export tax rebate rate and adopted a series of measures to encourage the expansion of exports and the utilization of foreign capital. 200 1 At the end of the year, China joined the WTO; At the beginning of 2005, the textile quota was cancelled. The implementation of these policies and measures conducive to the development of export-oriented economy and the formation of institutional environment have enabled China's export commodities to further exert their competitive advantages and export to grow at a high speed.
The third reason: China's long-term preferential policies for foreign investment.
Various preferential policies to encourage foreign investment enable foreign investment to enter China through joint ventures and direct investment. The inflow of foreign exchange brought by the entry of foreign direct investment is not in the form of purchasing foreign capital goods, that is, flowing out in the form of current account deficit. Instead, these foreign investors simply sell the foreign exchange brought by direct investment to the People's Bank of China, and then buy domestic capital goods with the exchanged RMB, and the products invested and produced are further exported to generate current account surplus, thus forming a "double surplus" pattern.
The fourth reason: the transfer of international industrial structure.
By analyzing the customs statistics for more than ten years, we can draw the following conclusions: First, in bilateral trade, the markets where China's surplus has increased significantly are mainly the United States, the European Union and Hong Kong, while China's surplus with Asia has turned into a deficit in the same period; Second, in terms of commodity structure, China's surplus is concentrated in manufactured goods, especially textiles and mechanical and electrical products, while the import and export of primary products has changed from surplus to deficit in the same period; Third, from the perspective of business entities, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises changed from deficit to surplus; Fourth, from the perspective of trade mode, the processing trade surplus is far greater than the general trade surplus. If we also compare the statistics of some major trading partners of China in the same period, we will find that while China's trade surplus with the United States and Europe is growing rapidly, the surpluses of several major Asian economies with the United States and Europe are gradually shrinking. That is to say, the processing and export industries originally located in several other Asian economies, especially their end processing procedures, have been transferred to China in large quantities, which has also shifted their trade surplus with the United States and Europe. Therefore, the rapid growth of China's commodity import and export and the expansion of its surplus in the past decade are directly related to the adjustment of international industrial structure and the transfer of some processing and export industries from other Asian economies to China in the form of foreign investment. In the final analysis, this is caused by China's division of labor in the world industrial structure.
The fifth reason: the input of global excess liquidity.
Since 200 1, the Federal Reserve has implemented a low interest rate policy for more than two years. In synchronization with its loose monetary policy, China's capital account surplus began to grow continuously, and the international pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation was also increasing. These events are not coincidences. In fact, it is precisely because of the long-term low interest rate policies of the three major economies in the world that the global liquidity is excessive, which pushes up the oil price and global asset price, forcing the excess liquidity to flow into China's capital market and real estate market, and China has been passively created with excess liquidity.
Third, the impact of the double surplus of international payments.
First, the surge in foreign exchange reserves caused by the double surplus of international payments makes "hedging" excessive liquidity an important task of the central bank's monetary policy at present and in the future. Due to the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves, the task of the central bank's "hedging" operation is getting heavier and heavier, more difficult and more expensive.
The double surplus of international payments leads to the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves. Under the current foreign exchange settlement and sale system. & gt
Question 3: Why does the balance of payments deficit lead to the outflow of gold? Judging from the causes of the balance of payments deficit, if the balance of payments deficit is caused by the current account deficit, it will inevitably lead to the reduction of employment opportunities in export-related departments and the economic downturn. If the balance of payments deficit is caused by the capital account deficit, it means a large number of capital outflows, tight domestic capital supply, pushing up interest rates, leading to increased unemployment and economic downturn.
So the gold flowed out.
Question 4: Why does the trade surplus lead to RMB appreciation? Exchange rate is the price that one currency represents another, and it is the most important adjusting lever in international trade. The exchange rate formation mechanism refers to the relationship and interaction between exchange rate fluctuations and changes in foreign exchange supply and demand in foreign exchange market transactions, and is one of the automatic adjustment mechanisms of international balance of payments imbalance. In fact, exchange rate is an important means for a country to implement economic regulation, which reflects the external value and economic strength of its own currency and directly affects a country's foreign trade, capital flow and balance of payments. Therefore, the appreciation of domestic currency caused by trade surplus is actually an economic means to adjust the international trade balance and domestic economic situation by using exchange rate.
Because one of the important functions of exchange rate is to adjust the balance of international trade, combined with its formation mechanism, when China has a large trade surplus in Sino-US trade, in order to adjust the balance of payments, RMB appreciation → dollar exchange rate decline → import increase, export decrease → balance of payments surplus decrease until the balance of payments is restored.
For China, if there is a large trade surplus in China, * * * will use US dollars as foreign exchange reserves and then convert them into RMB for domestic manufacturers, which actually leads to an increase in domestic RMB supply. In reality, it is reflected in internal depreciation, that is, inflation-essentially, the imbalance between supply and demand of money and goods, that is, the supply of money is greater than the supply of goods, and at this time, an appropriate appreciation of the renminbi can adjust the balance of payments. On the other hand, it can enhance the purchasing power of local currency, expand the import trade volume, and supplement the domestic market with a large number of imported products until the supply of goods and money can reach a balance and stabilize the price level in the domestic market.
Of course, most of the above analysis is theoretical, but the actual operation is much more complicated, and the effect cannot be generalized. Any policy measures are lagging behind.
I hope the above answers can help you.
Question 5: Will the balance of payments surplus make ()? The balance of payments surplus means NX>f, that is, the net export is greater than the net capital outflow, which is equivalent to the net increase of official reserve assets. You know, only when NX=F can the foreign exchange market reach equilibrium, or external equilibrium to be exact. Because Y=C+I+G+NX, the transpose must be
Y-C-G=I+NX, the left side of the equation is "national savings" S, and the right side of the equation is the sum of net exports of inputs, which can be further written as S-I=NX.
The difference between national savings and investment (that is, the net outflow of capital) must be equal to the net export, so that the foreign exchange market can reach equilibrium. The balance of payments surplus and deficit are unbalanced. Theoretically, under the condition of free capital flow and floating exchange rate, the balance of payments can be achieved independently (the basic principle of balance of payments is debit and credit bookkeeping, which has no essential connection with the monetary authorities). When the balance of payments is in surplus, foreign demand for domestic currency increases. Let me briefly explain the reasons. Suppose that only two countries in the world, China and foreign countries, export products and import products, regardless of the existence and intervention of the two central banks. The net outflow of domestic capital is S-I, the difference between savings and investment, and the constraint that foreign departments can import goods is S-I. However, when there is a surplus, foreign imports, that is, domestic exports NX are greater than S-I, and foreign countries have a deficit, so they have to finance this difference (NX-F), which leads to an increase in demand for domestic currency, an appreciation of local currency and a decrease in net exports, thus achieving a balance of payments.
I hope it helps you.
Question 6: What's the adverse effect of the persistent large surplus of international payments on economic development? It does have a bad effect. The sustained huge balance of payments surplus will have the following effects:
1, the local currency continued to be strong and exports were affected. Long-term huge surplus will make foreign exchange supply exceed demand, forcing the exchange rate of domestic currency to rise. Too strong local currency will lead to large-scale arbitrage, arbitrage and foreign exchange speculation, undermining the stability of domestic and foreign financial markets; At the same time, it will put exports in an unfavorable competitive position, affect the development of export trade, and thus aggravate the domestic unemployment problem.
2, leading to inflation. The sustained surplus has greatly increased foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange holdings; At the same time, it will increase foreign exchange supply and local currency demand, and the monetary authorities have to buy a lot of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market to intervene. In both cases, domestic money will be forced to expand and prices will rise, which will lead to inflation. In addition, the accumulation of huge international reserves increases the opportunity cost of holding foreign exchange and the use of foreign exchange funds is inefficient.
3. It is not conducive to the development of international economic relations. A country's balance of payments has a large surplus, which means that the balance of payments of the countries concerned has a deficit, which is often manifested as an imbalance between imports and exports, thus easily triggering trade frictions and affecting international economic relations.
Question 7: Try to analyze the causes of the double surplus pattern of China's balance of payments and what impact it will have on China's economy. 1. China has cheap labor, low commodity cost and low price, and its export commodities have price advantages.
2. China implements the incentive policy of export tax rebate and tax exemption for export industries. Promoted the growth of exports.
China attracts foreign investment every year. According to the world's leading position, there are nearly 10 billion dollars of direct investment inflows every year.
Impact:
1, increase China's foreign exchange reserves. At the end of 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves were nearly 1 trillion US dollars. The increase in foreign exchange reserves has enhanced China's ability to face risks, which is of great significance to enhancing China's international solvency.
2. Increase China's money supply. A large amount of capital inflow has increased China's money supply, and a long-term large surplus may cause inflation.
3, a large number of foreign exchange surplus if you can't find the right investment opportunities, will produce a lot of opportunity costs.
4. The export of a large number of resource-intensive and labor-intensive products makes China lose a lot of resources. Low labor prices have sacrificed people's welfare level. In the long run, the domestic income level will gradually increase, domestic demand will not expand, and the gap between the rich and the poor will increase.
Question 8: Is the balance of payments a surplus or a deficit? Generally speaking, the surplus is better than the deficit.
(A), the economic impact of the balance of payments deficit-mainly negative.
The balance of payments deficit will lead to the decrease of foreign exchange supply and the increase of domestic foreign exchange market demand, which will increase the foreign exchange rate and decrease the local currency exchange rate. If the country * * * takes measures to intervene, that is, selling foreign currency and buying local currency, * * * must have sufficient foreign exchange reserves in its hands, which will further lead to the depreciation of the local currency. * * * intervention will directly lead to the reduction of domestic money supply, and the reduction of money supply will lead to the increase of domestic interest rates, which will lead to the decline of economy and the increase of unemployment.
Judging from the causes of the balance of payments deficit, if the balance of payments deficit is caused by the current account deficit, it will inevitably lead to the reduction of employment opportunities in export-related departments and the economic downturn. If the balance of payments deficit is caused by the capital account deficit, it means a large number of capital outflows, tight domestic capital supply, pushing up interest rates, leading to increased unemployment and economic downturn.
(B), the interests of the balance of payments surplus
1. The balance of payments surplus promotes economic growth.
2. The balance of payments surplus has increased foreign exchange reserves, enhanced comprehensive national strength, helped to maintain international reputation, and improved the ability of external financing and introducing foreign capital.
3. The balance of payments surplus is conducive to the balance of economic aggregate.
4. The balance of payments surplus has enhanced China's ability to resist the risks of economic globalization and contributed to national economic security.
5. The balance of payments surplus is conducive to the stability of RMB exchange rate and the implementation of relatively loose macro-control policies.
(3) However, the balance of payments also has disadvantages.
1. The balance of payments surplus has increased the pressure of RMB appreciation and international trade friction.
The balance of payments surplus makes the foreign currency supply in the domestic foreign exchange market exceed the foreign currency demand, which will inevitably lead to the expectation of foreign currency depreciation and RMB appreciation. Therefore, the balance of payments surplus produces the pressure of RMB appreciation: the greater the balance of payments surplus, the greater the pressure of RMB appreciation; The expectation of RMB appreciation has increased the inflow of foreign capital and the expansion of the balance of payments surplus, further enhancing the pressure of RMB appreciation.
The balance of payments surplus intensifies international trade friction. The increase of China's trade surplus means that countries that trade with China have deficits, and deficit countries will use WTO rules to restrict the import of our products and protect their own industries. After China's entry into WTO, due to the large trade deficit between China and the United States, the United States is the country with the most anti-dumping, while China is the country with the most anti-dumping, ranking first among WTO members, and the anti-dumping cases in China are increasing year by year.
2. The balance of payments surplus weakens the effect of monetary policy and reduces the utilization efficiency of social resources.
Foreign exchange inflow increases with the increase of balance of payments surplus. Under the fixed exchange rate and foreign exchange settlement and sale system, the central bank will buy foreign exchange in RMB, and the monetary investment will increase with the increase of foreign exchange inflow. With a large number of RMB passively put into circulation, the basic currency account of the central bank is more subject to the inflow of foreign exchange, which not only weakens the effect of the central bank's monetary policy, but also leads to the rise of the price level.
The combination of balance of payments surplus and domestic residents' savings leads to inefficient utilization of social resources. The large foreign exchange reserves caused by the balance of payments surplus are as high as more than 400 billion US dollars, while the domestic residents' savings are as high as 1 1 trillion RMB, which adds up to about 1.4 trillion RMB. This 1.4 trillion has not formed effective investment, and it is idle funds in the economy and society. Corresponding to these idle funds is the idleness of means of production and human resources, and the utilization efficiency of social resources is low. Therefore, there has been a phenomenon that economic growth and unemployment increase coexist in China.
3. The balance of payments surplus increases the cost of foreign exchange reserves and capital outflow.
There are always risks in foreign exchange operations in international financial markets, the most obvious of which is exchange rate risk. China has a fixed exchange rate pegged to the US dollar. Whenever the dollar depreciates and inflation occurs in the United States, China's foreign exchange reserves depreciate accordingly, resulting in the loss of foreign exchange reserves. The greater the balance of payments surplus, the more foreign exchange needs to be operated in the international financial market, and the higher the cost of the national foreign exchange reserves.
The balance of payments surplus has increased the outflow of funds. Under the system of foreign exchange settlement and sale, the inflow of foreign funds must be converted into foreign exchange reserves, which are mainly bonds that reserve US dollars and euros. The more the balance of payments surplus, the more foreign exchange reserves, the more foreign bonds and the more capital outflows. These two aspects form an internal contradiction: the balance of payments surplus guides the inflow of foreign capital, and the more exports, the more foreign direct investment. & gt