1. In Greece, we can guess the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone through Greek polls. The current polls show that the ultra-left alliance of Greek reactionaries won a total victory in the general election on June 5438+1October 25th, which increased the risk of Greece and Britain leaving the EU in the foreign exchange market by several points. The market is particularly worried about whether the Lehman moment in 2008 will reappear.
Second, the European Central Bank (ECB) found that the market is still hesitant about the pricing of the euro zone economy, although it is widely expected that the ECB will launch a European version of QE. In fact, the sharp drop in inflation expectations has convinced the market that the euro zone cannot escape deflation. Therefore, the European version of QE will have a positive impact, especially on the peripheral countries of the euro zone. The rising yield of government bonds in peripheral countries of the euro zone is one of the important factors that put pressure on the euro in recent years.
Third, oil prices plummeted. In the case of oversupply in the global energy market, there seems to be no reason to alleviate the continuous decline in oil prices. As the oil price has not stabilized, it is still bearish. One of the keys to the recent drop in oil prices is the introduction of shale products to the market, which has changed the supply and demand structure of the market. If oil prices want to end the decline, producers will have to cut production. If the euro wants to end the decline, it must first stop the decline of crude oil, so that it can not further suppress the inflation level in the euro zone, and thus it can not become a negative factor for the euro.
Fourth, as far as the Russian crisis is concerned, Russia is also suffering from a sharp drop in oil prices. CDS price shows that the market thinks that the default risk of Russia has risen to about 35%. Risk aversion has a negative impact on the banking industry in the euro zone, thus suppressing the euro.
Generally speaking, the factors that caused the euro to plummet against RMB include: Greece, oil price, Russia and so on.
The collapse of the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB was mainly caused by the withdrawal of Greece and Britain from the European Union, the collapse of oil prices and the Russian crisis.
As one of the best currencies in the world, the euro is strong, with a wide circulation range and a high purchasing power. Especially in the global foreign exchange reserves, the international payment rate is also in the forefront. Therefore, it is quite influential internationally. However, as the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world, it had a great impact on the macroeconomic and social development of the euro zone, and the corresponding currency, the euro, fluctuated downwards, and the foreign exchange interest rate reached a historical record, which was in contrast with the normal level.