First, the changes and reasons of China residents' savings
China is a developing country. During the 30 years from the founding of the People's Republic to the implementation of reform and opening up, the national savings was only tens of billions of RMB, 1, and in 1978, the national per capita savings balance was only 2 1 yuan. According to the foreign exchange rate at that time, it was only equivalent to the average wage in developed countries, showing the poverty level of China residents. The reform and opening up after the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has greatly changed this situation. After ten years of reform, the per capita savings deposit in 1988 rose to 347 yuan, a ten-year increase of 16.5 times. By the end of 1995, the national per capita savings deposit reached about 2,500 yuan, that is to say, it increased by 120 times in 17 years, only one year 1995. The high-speed or even ultra-high-speed growth of residents' savings in China is obviously due to the following reasons:
1. After the reform, the national income distribution is obviously tilted towards individuals, which leads to the excessive growth of consumption funds. Judging from the distribution since the reform and opening up, the growth rate of personal income in most years is higher than that of economic development. 1968 In the first half of the year, the per capita living expenses income of urban residents nationwide was 1968 yuan, which was 3 1.7% higher than that of 1994 in the same period. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 758 yuan, an increase of 37%, while the economic growth rate in the same period was only1/kloc. 1979 The same is true for the initial distribution of national income. The initial structure of national income distribution is 1 1.4% for government departments, 37% for enterprise departments and 50.8% for individual departments, followed by 10%, 25% and 65%. The changes in the final distribution structure of national income are as follows: at the beginning of the reform, the proportions of government, enterprises and individuals in the final distribution structure of national income were 23.5%, 12. 1% and 64.4% respectively, and by 1988, the structure became1. From the above changes, it is not difficult to see that besides promoting social and economic development and bringing benefits to the people, the change of national income distribution structure, that is, excessive inclination to individuals, is an important reason for the increase of residents' income in China.
2. The average income of residents leads to a single and relatively concentrated consumption structure. Due to well-known factors, the income of China residents is basically at two levels, one is urban residents and the other is rural workers, except for a few employees such as individual businessmen, enterprise contractors and managers of foreign-funded enterprises. The singleness of income leads to the singleness and concentration of consumption structure (relatively concentrated consumption time and relatively concentrated consumption varieties). Before the formation of new consumption hotspots, residents' income was in the state of savings structure. Once new consumption hotspots are formed, they will flock to them. Because there is no big consumption hotspot in recent years, this is one of the main reasons for the rapid growth of household savings in recent years.
3. The attractiveness of hedging subsidies. Throughout the economic development of China since the reform and opening up, it has been accompanied by high inflation and low inflation. Since 1988, in order to protect the interests of depositors, stabilize the financial order and strengthen macro-control, the state has taken measures to preserve the value of savings, which has largely stabilized residents' willingness to deposit, ensured the smooth flow of savings channels and created conditions for the rapid growth of total savings.
4. Residents' investment channels are single. Since the reform, the investment channels of Chinese residents are far from meeting the needs of rapid income growth and economic development, especially in investment. Because of the risks in investment fields such as stocks and futures, especially the existence of high speculation and low return, most residents dare not set foot in investment fields such as stocks. The data shows that by 1992, the amount of securities held by residents only accounts for 9.27% of the savings balance of residents. If treasury bills and corporate bonds are deducted, the proportion is quite low. Therefore, in recent years, bank deposits have become the main choice for China residents to invest.
Second, the impact of excessive growth of household savings on economic operation.
The rapid growth of residents' savings, on the one hand, shows that China's economy has gained a certain strength after the reform, on the other hand, it also reflects the great benefits gained by the residents in the reform. It can be said that reform has promoted economic development, and economic development has improved the lives of urban and rural residents. Conversely, the excessive growth of residents' savings has both advantages and disadvantages for economic operation and reform.
1. Huge savings are an important guarantee for the recent rapid economic development. From the perspective of China's economic development, although we have put forward the grand goal of changing from extensive management to intensive management, due to the great employment pressure and low quality of labor force in China, the realization of this goal must be based on expanding reproduction, supplemented by intensive management in some mature industries and departments. In other words, in the whole national economic development, it is impossible to improve the speed of economic development by realizing large-scale intensive management in the near future. The extension and expansion of reproduction must be ensured by high investment. The essence of savings is the process of concentrating idle funds through specific channels and ways and transforming them into effective investment, thus making this high investment possible. This is made possible by the huge savings formed by the thrifty consumption of China residents. Looking at the economic development of China in recent years, it is inseparable from the support of residents' savings. In a sense, it is residents' savings that supports the reform and economic development, and plays an escort role for the reform and rapid economic growth.
2. Huge household savings have laid a material foundation for deepening reform. With the deepening of reform, people's consumption concept has also undergone profound changes, generally from the past blind consumption, value-preserving consumption, follow-up consumption and so on to the current expected consumption, rational consumption and so on. Especially after residents' life has been basically improved and people generally live and work in peace and contentment, residents' awareness of life crisis has gradually increased, and reform measures such as housing, medical care, employment, old-age care and children's education will be introduced one after another, which will increase many uncertainties for each family's future expenditure. Therefore, when considering income distribution, people have begun to have a strong sense of crisis and awareness of prevention. Therefore, people regard increasing savings as an effective way to deal with all kinds of uncertain expenditures in the future. A questionnaire survey on the saving mentality of 20,000 residents organized by the People's Bank of China in August showed that 1 1.5% of the residents were motivated to save, 13.5% were to meet their children's future education expenses, 7.3% were to prepare their own pension, and 5.5% were to prevent accidents. This shows that people have a certain psychological preparation and preliminary planning for their future life, and most families have begun to pay attention to correctly handling the relationship between current consumption and future consumption. It also shows that people have psychological expectations for the increase in residents' expenditure brought about by future reforms. This has laid a solid psychological and material foundation for future reform: first, this directional savings of residents has created good social conditions for the introduction of future reform measures such as housing, employment, education and endowment insurance, and further paved the way for straightening out various economic relations and deepening system reform. Secondly, residents' psychological expectation of future reform and the preventive measures taken for saving provide us with a good opportunity to break through the reform dilemma. Third, the residents' awareness of the difficulty of reform and the improvement of their psychological quality provide a basic social environment and psychological guarantee for ensuring social stability in the reform.
3. The fact that the national income distribution is excessively inclined to individuals has laid a potential crisis for future reform. So far, looking at the reform process in China, the biggest beneficiaries of the reform are urban and rural residents. This reform with "particularity" can win the broad support of the general public at the beginning of the reform, which is also a basic driving force for the smooth progress of the reform in 19 years and the main reason for the formation of huge savings of residents. However, from the process of reform and in the long run, this kind of reform that is too biased towards individuals in national income distribution is unsustainable. When the reform reaches a certain degree of difficulty and touches on deep-seated contradictions, residents will inevitably be required to pay a certain price to some extent and in some aspects. When people not only can't get the expected benefits from the reform, but also need to bear the cost of the reform, although the ultimate beneficiaries of the reform are the people of the whole country, they will no longer support the reform or even take boycott actions at a certain moment because of the driving role of their vital interests. At present, due to unfair distribution, inflation, declining enterprise benefits, potential unemployment of employees and other issues, residents' emotional attitude towards reform has changed compared with previous years. Judging from the current reform process in China, the next step of reform is to start work in many aspects that touch the interests of urban and rural residents, so that the factors that increase residents' expenditure will greatly increase. In terms of national income distribution, due to the lack of funds, enterprises have difficulties in operation and their benefits have declined, so national income can no longer be tilted towards individuals, and this distribution structure should also be adjusted. Therefore, it is more noteworthy that although the national income distribution is excessively tilted towards individuals, it has had a positive impact on the previous reforms. Under the background of restoring the normal distribution ratio of national income and even requiring the general public to pay more reform costs, how to continue to ensure the positive and orderly reform is undoubtedly a difficult problem for theorists and reformers.
4. Unbalanced savings structure increases the cost of economic operation. Since the reform and opening-up, the overall savings structure in China has also undergone significant changes due to the gradual inclination of national income distribution to individuals. 1979 the overall savings structure in China is: 23.55% for individuals, 33.65% for enterprises and 42.8% for government departments. By 1988, it has become 62.5% for individuals, 30.5% for enterprises and 7% for government departments. At the end of 1995, about 72% were individuals and 23% were enterprises. In contrast, in China, both government savings and corporate savings are too low. 5% of government savings, which is obviously not commensurate with the economic and social development and reform tasks undertaken by our government. The low government savings is undoubtedly one of the main reasons that lead to the rising fiscal deficit year after year and then stimulate the continuous expansion of the currency. The savings rate of 23% is also obviously low for a huge state-owned enterprise group with public ownership as the main body, which is an important reason for the high-debt operation of state-owned enterprises and the settlement of triangular debts between enterprises. The direct consequence of the decline of enterprise savings and debt management is the increase of cost and the decrease of benefit. In fact, the serious shortage of enterprise savings has become an important reason why China's enterprise system reform is difficult to advance smoothly.
The threat of "tiger in a cage" to the economy still exists. Household savings is a double-edged sword, which can not only support economic construction, but also impact the underdeveloped market. Many people in the financial sector compare the huge savings of residents to "tigers in cages", which is the reason. When China's residents' savings deposits exceeded 199 1 year/trillion yuan, it aroused the concern of many economic experts. When 1994 exceeded 2 trillion, people concerned were worried that once this huge tiger came out, it would wash away the market. When the national savings deposits exceeded 3 trillion yuan at the end of 1995, in fact, this concern was not unreasonable. The impact of the run caused by inflation in 1988 on the market and economy was an example. Although the inflation in recent years has not led to the tiger coming out, it should not be a reason for us to relax our vigilance. First, from the legal point of view, resident deposits are sacred and inviolable private property, and voluntary deposits and free withdrawals are the minimum credibility of banks. Banks should not refuse to pay residents' deposits at any time, which provides legal protection for the tiger to come out. Second, China's reform has reached a critical period, and almost every deep-seated reform involves the adjustment of multiple interests. In other words, every reform may cause psychological changes of residents, so as to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of saving and consumption and make choices. Our deep-seated reforms are precisely some problems that increase residents' expenditure and easily lead to inflation. After these measures are introduced, it is very likely that the unity of consumption will lead to centralized withdrawal. Third, in terms of the total amount, the savings of urban and rural residents are large, but due to the lack of distribution, savings are too concentrated. According to statistics, 28% of the total savings deposits belong to self-employed, private enterprise bosses, enterprise contractors and others, concentrated in the hands of about 30 million people. With the gradual deepening of reform, the formation of interest rate marketization and the gradual maturity of personal investment conditions, when the deposit interest rate is much lower than the investment income, this part of savings deposits will soon be converted into personal investment. In view of this, no matter what causes the "big tiger" to come out or the "little tiger" to come out, there will be the following situations: at present, the operation of state-owned enterprises is actually maintained by loans, and enterprises have been struggling under the background of more than 70% debt management. If there is a run wind, there are only two ways out: first, the enterprise immediately returns the loan to ensure the credibility of the bank and timely payment; Second, the central bank issues money on a large scale. No matter which way you take, the consequences will be disastrous.
Third, the conclusion
Analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the excessive growth of household savings does not mean belittling the role of household savings. In fact, compared with Japanese, American and Western European countries, China's residents' savings are far behind, and even China's residents' savings are far less supportive of the economy. The problem is not the absolute amount of savings, but the unreasonable national income distribution structure, the imbalance between household savings and state-owned assets, and the possible adverse effects on deepening reform. The problem we are facing is that reform, especially in a big country with complicated situation and thin family background, needs a stable economic and social environment and people's support for reform. However, it is impossible for the reform to eat up the national income in order to gain the support of the people, and it is impossible to ignore the solution of deep-seated contradictions, so that the people can only receive results without paying costs in the reform. Generally speaking, when the reform is easy to advance, the national income should be less inclined to individuals, so as to accumulate strength to prepare for tackling key problems. When the reform enters the critical stage, people need to pay the cost of the reform, but also need their support to get people's long-term support for the reform. The problem is that in the reform practice of more than ten years, we have not well combined the policy of tilting national income distribution to individuals with the corresponding reform costs paid by individuals. On the contrary, when the reform is easy to advance, one-sided emphasis is placed on the national income distribution leaning towards individuals. When the reform enters the crucial stage of solving deep-seated contradictions, enterprises are facing difficulties, debts are high, and even many enterprises are facing bankruptcy, making it difficult for employees to find jobs. When huge funds are needed to support the reform, our finances and enterprises cannot keep the national income tilted towards individuals to ensure people's support for the reform. This situation forces us to take measures to reduce residents' income and absolutely increase residents' expenditure, but this will increase the resistance to reform. It can really be said that we fattened the "tiger" in the cage, starved the "horse" (state-owned enterprise) on the grassland, and spent money to buy a resistance.
As far as the huge savings deposits of residents are concerned, since the excessive inclination of national income to individuals is the fundamental reason for fattening the caged tiger, adjusting this inclination, especially the excessive income of a few people, has become the most important way for us to reduce the nutrition of the caged tiger. Although this may bring a lot of resistance to the reform, in order to make the "prairie horse" run, in the next step of reform, whether it is rational choice or no other way, this is the only feasible way in the current reform framework.
If the huge household savings deposit is a "tiger" in a cage, in order not to let the "tiger" come out, then we should push forward the reform process more rationally and soberly in the future and eliminate the hidden dangers of the "tiger". Some people think that as long as we continue to strengthen the guidance of residents' savings and guide residents' surplus money to invest in long-term deposits, we can prevent the "tiger" from coming out. In fact, the nature of bank deposits is completely different from that of bond stocks. As long as the income from shopping and consumption is greater than the deposit interest or the loss may be reduced, neither long-term deposit nor short-term deposit can prevent residents from withdrawing money and spending, nor can banks use long-term deposit as a reason to refuse to pay. On the contrary, because banks regard the long-term deposits of most residents as long-term loans or infrastructure loans, once a run occurs, it is more difficult to raise funds to pay. Therefore, we can only find another way: first, according to international practice, we should speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises' shareholding system and standardize the operation behavior of existing joint-stock enterprises, improve the return on investment, and provide a good environment and field for residents' investment. At present, it seems that transferring residents' deposits through the shareholding system reform of state-owned enterprises is the best choice to prevent the "tiger" from coming out and deepen enterprise reform. Second, accelerate the reform of the housing system for urban residents in order to recover funds and support the reform. Some people think that the commercialization of housing is a very difficult thing. If the price is too high, residents can't afford it, and the price is too low, it will lead to the loss of state-owned assets. The author believes that this should not be the reason to delay the commercialization of housing: first, the price is too high, which is not in line with China's national conditions; Second, appropriate low prices will not cause the loss of state-owned assets. Because from the perspective of the previous wage structure of employees in China, housing provident fund is not included in the wages of employees, and housing provident fund is handed over to the state in the form of profits or other forms. Now it is a nature to return the housing provident fund to the employees by lowering the house price so that ordinary residents can afford it. In fact, in the current housing system, the disparity between cost and rent has been causing the loss of state-owned assets. On the issue of housing commercialization, it is neither realistic nor reasonable to talk about the preservation of state-owned assets out of the national conditions, and it should not be reformed.