First, correctly judge the macroeconomic situation. There must be fluctuations in the market economy, and fluctuations will definitely bring risks. An important problem faced by enterprises is how to have their own dynamic development strategy to successfully cope with repeated economic fluctuations and how to survive and develop well in the process of market economic fluctuations. (1) Whether the total supply and demand is balanced is an important criterion. Too cold means overcapacity, and too hot means insufficient capacity. Judging whether the economy is overheated is judged through a series of phenomena, especially whether the relationship between supply and demand is balanced. The initial performance is that the supply of raw materials began to be tight, the price rose, and then a series of basic products began to be in short supply, which is the basic performance of the imbalance between total supply and demand. (2) The self-expansion of the gap between supply and demand is an important manifestation of economic imbalance. Once the economy is out of balance, it will fluctuate. An important performance in the process of imbalance is that the gap between supply and demand will expand itself, thus creating a dynamic vicious circle. Once the demand exceeds the supply and the economy overheats, the demand will further expand automatically, the price will further rise and the investment will further expand. This will further lead to a vicious circle of inflation. At this time, we should give full play to the primary role of macro-control, break this vicious circle and stop the spread of imbalance. (3) The impact of macro-control on the economic situation. If the economy is too hot or too cold, a series of adverse consequences will occur after reaching the limit. The final result of economic overheating is to produce a large number of excess capacity, followed by an economic crisis of excess capacity, which in turn leads to economic depression, inflation, deflation, unemployment, idleness and overcapacity, and so on. On the contrary, severe deflation will lead to the next round of economic inflation. Economic supercooling is caused by economic overheating. What enterprises really need to guard against is not overheating, but supercooling after overheating! Economic fluctuation is a deviation from efficiency and a loss. But when the economy is hot, everyone's life is better. What really needs to be dealt with seriously is the problem of cold time! Too cold is an economic crisis that has become pale in economic theory. Macro-control, as an important function of macroeconomics and modern government public service, is born for this purpose to some extent. Macro-economic policies are aimed at the problems of macro-dynamic inefficiency, such as over-investment, overcapacity, great turmoil, ineffective resource allocation system, ineffective production, losses of many enterprises and government actions, which need to be solved, but these are not solved by macro-economic policies. Other problems should be solved through other reform measures and policies, so reform and regulation go hand in hand. The basic purpose of macroeconomic policy is to ensure sustained economic growth and create a stable environment for everyone. Through the adjustment of economic policies, the so-called soft landing will be realized and the macro efficiency will be maximized. To achieve this goal, we must start when the economy is just overheating. Macro-control is a short-term policy, which should be carried out continuously according to changes in the situation and adjusted in time. (4) the transformation of economic growth mode and the reform of enterprise system. Steady economic growth is a good day for enterprises, and a long-term good day is the best day! The economic fluctuation is small, and everyone has not been seriously affected when they came, but everyone can achieve long-term sustainable growth. This is the significance of macro-control to enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Only with steady growth can we continue to grow. China will face a period of rapid growth of at least 50 years. The key to maintain this potential, long-term and sustained high-speed growth advantage is to change the existing extensive growth mode mainly relying on labor, capital and land input into a growth mode mainly relying on improving factor efficiency and stimulating economic development. This fundamental transformation of economic structure undoubtedly provides opportunities and challenges for enterprises in China. Second, the macroeconomic situation of China in the post-financial crisis era (1) focuses on preventing inflation. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, pointed out at a seminar organized by the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney that inflation has appeared, but it is still at a low level. China must be alert to the current situation. 20/kloc-0 held a meeting in the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on March 22nd to discuss the "Government Work Report" that the State Council intends to submit to the Third Session of the 11th National People's Congress for deliberation, pointing out that "this year, we will continue to implement the cumulative fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and properly handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations." According to the principle of balance between supply and demand, hyperinflation is almost impossible this year, because there are almost no commodities in China that are not in oversupply. However, as far as China's current economic reality is concerned, there are at least four potential factors that may trigger inflation. First, will there be a big problem in food supply? Second, the trend of international commodity prices will have an impact. Third, the scale of money supply is too large. Fourth, psychological expectations. (II) Further Promoting the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises According to the report of Economic Daily on February 28th, 20/KLOC-0, since the second half of 2008, the central government has issued relevant policies and measures in time to increase financial, tax and credit support. Finance at all levels comprehensively uses a number of policy tools such as funds, taxation, government procurement and financial system to create a fair and relaxed development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises. These measures have improved the financing environment for SMEs; It provides strong support for technological innovation, structural adjustment, employment expansion and development mode transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises; Help small and medium-sized enterprises to explore domestic and foreign markets, expand market share and enhance their ability to cope with market risks. However, the development environment of SMEs still needs to be improved; Problems such as structural adjustment difficulties, overcapacity, low resource utilization rate and backward production technology of small and medium-sized enterprises are still outstanding; The socialized service system cannot meet the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises. On February 3rd, 2065438+00, US President Barack Obama said that the United States would take a tougher stance on China on the exchange rate issue, and asked China to open its market more widely, so as to expand American exports and create jobs at home. He also said that he would put more pressure on China to open its market. Although the Obama administration refused to list China as a currency manipulator twice last year, at present, the criticism of RMB exchange rate in the United States is getting stronger and stronger, and the US * * * and Party Senator grassley ask Obama to formally list China as a currency manipulator. In addition, a recent report released by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States said that the RMB exchange rate was undervalued by 30% against the world's major currencies and even by 40% against the US dollar. Jing Xuecheng, chairman of the Harmonious Strategic Research Alliance, said that for the United States, the current appreciation of the renminbi has evolved from a simple economic issue to political pressure. At present, the unemployment rate in the United States remains high, at around 10%. The Obama administration urgently needs to solve the unemployment problem. In addition, Obama is also facing a general election. Therefore, the United States has thrown domestic political pressure on China. Xia Bin, director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said: "One of the purposes of the United States is to reduce its trade deficit." He said that after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States became the most special economy in the world, and the United States needed to buy a large number of goods and services in the international market, which led to a large trade deficit. If the RMB appreciates too fast, the decline in the prices of imported goods will drive down the prices of a series of domestic goods. China's export income decreased, and its foreign exchange holdings decreased, thus reducing the base currency. This is tantamount to tightening the domestic money supply and restraining investment demand, which will bring a series of interferences to many economic behaviors, form people's bad psychological expectations, and then make the macro economy into trouble. A large number of overseas short-term speculative funds will take the opportunity to enter China's state-owned capital market, which is a potential cause of financial market turmoil because of its large scale, fast flow and strong profitability. It may lead to a corresponding increase in the base currency invested by the central bank in the form of foreign exchange, a sustained increase in the money supply and excess liquidity. At the same time, the influx of foreign capital will push up asset prices, and its "wealth effect" will cause the prices of other domestic products to rise, thus increasing the pressure of inflation in China at present. Three. How do China enterprises cope with economic fluctuations? (1) Impact of current macroeconomic trends on China enterprises Inflation and high-cost operation will become the main features of the future economy, rising global food and energy prices, inflation, exchange rate appreciation, tight monetary policy and high interest rates. In such an economic situation, the first thing that enterprises face is high-cost operation. Whether it is in response to international market competition, policy encouragement, or a series of results brought about by RMB exchange rate appreciation, China enterprises are urgently required to adjust their industrial structure. This may be a rare opportunity for some enterprises, but it may be a disaster for some enterprises. (2) Enterprises with market dynamic risk awareness should pay close attention to the changes in the macroeconomic situation, deeply analyze the impact of macro policies such as exchange rate, interest rate, tax rate, price changes of energy and raw materials, and tight credit on enterprise development, timely adjust development strategies and business strategies, and formulate countermeasures to ensure sustained and stable development. It is necessary to realize that the market is fluctuating and enterprises have great risks in the process of fluctuation, so we should prepare a set of risk control measures, which is the so-called dynamic development model strategy, so that enterprises can take the initiative and develop for a long time. Capital is important, technology is important, management is important, and it is equally important to grasp dynamic development. There is not only the risk of competition, but also the risk of changes in people's needs, which is also a dynamic risk for enterprises. We should pay attention to the trend of technological progress, the pattern of globalization and macroeconomic changes. In particular, what stage the economic cycle has fluctuated, what stage it has reached now, and what is the difference between this cycle and the last cycle. (3) Maintain a steady and sustained growth mentality 1, raise awareness of risk prevention, strengthen risk management, and continuously enhance risk management and control capabilities. Avoid blind external guarantee, blind loan investment and illegal entry into high-risk investment business. It is necessary to effectively strengthen risk awareness, minimize the possibility of various risks, and make risks controllable. 2. Maintain cash flow This is a positive dynamic strategy. When there is an expansion opportunity, it will expand with reservations, instead of investing all the money, maintaining a surplus capital flow, and not straining the whole investment, production and operation. We should seize every opportunity, but at the same time, we should analyze what is extraordinary growth and what is normal growth. No matter how good the market is, it will maintain a certain investment rhythm. It will not make its own development strategy according to extraordinary growth, but decide to expand according to the growth of orders. Although the profit is not high, it will not cause greater losses because of excessive investment. 3. Control fluctuations rather than being eliminated by them. When adjusting the structure, we can consider buying others instead of being eliminated. During the period of rapid economic development in China, there are many opportunities and temptations, as well as many traps. Enterprises should persist in highlighting their main businesses and concentrate on developing their main businesses. They should not only focus on expanding the scale of their main business, but also pay attention to improving profitability and strive to be better and stronger. Avoid problems such as too scattered energy, weak main business, unstable profit base, unbalanced internal development and increased debt risk in enterprise development, and strengthen budget management. (D) to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, there is a well-said saying: "The external changes in the macro economy are not the fundamental reason for the collapse of enterprises, but the last straw to crush enterprises!" How to upgrade? Improve internal management, improve technical level, develop from labor-intensive to capital, technology and knowledge-intensive industries, and make greater efforts in building brands, improving the quality and grade of export commodities, improving varieties and varieties, and perfecting marketing. Improve productivity and technical content of products, and gradually move from OEM and imitation to independent innovation. (V) Transnational operation With the progress of globalization, "the world is getting flatter and flatter". Because foreign investment can bring economic growth to the invested countries, countries are increasingly interested in attracting foreign direct investment, which has gradually become a trend. The restrictions and costs faced by enterprises in transnational operations are gradually decreasing. Under the regional free processing trade agreement, the physical boundary is almost negligible. Enterprises can conduct transnational business activities through import and export trade, green land investment and mergers and acquisitions, and licensing trade. In the future, the competition of enterprises will no longer be the competition of a single region, but the competition of stepping onto the international stage and integrating global resources. The development of China's reform and opening up for more than 20 years has laid the foundation for China enterprises to "go global". The rapid development of economic globalization provides a good opportunity for China enterprises to participate in international competition and optimize resource allocation in a wider scope. The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly put forward the strategic deployment of "bringing in" and "going out" simultaneously, which is the main economic goal of China in the next 20 years. China enterprises can choose to take international trade as the guide and expand their production and operation links to the target market step by step. According to your actual situation, you can choose direct export and gradually set up overseas representative offices, overseas branches and overseas subsidiaries. (VI) Building and operating the value network of enterprises At present, there is a new trend in the world economy that value network competition replaces value chain competition. In the past, the vertical integration of industries has rapidly transformed into a criss-crossing network format of technology integration, business integration and industrial integration. "Research shows that the optimization of IT architecture can bring 2% business growth to enterprises; The optimization of business architecture can bring 8% growth; And if business and IT can support each other and the enterprise structure is optimized as a whole, it will bring about an increase of about 20%. Enterprises need to change the previous operation mode of disjointed business and IT, and use the concept of overall architecture to achieve1+1>; The effect of 2. " Enterprises should constantly adjust their operation mode according to the changes of the market and customers. By introducing innovative ideas and models, the business architecture design is completed, including the organizational structure, end-to-end processes, cross-departmental collaboration and IT systems in the next 2-3 years. Combine high-end enterprise strategy with business management and operation at the operational level, and build a brand-new enterprise operation system through systematic methods. Through cooperation with partners and customers, we will seize the opportunity, create value and realize the strategic development goal of the enterprise.