In the last three months, the dollar bottomed out and bounced out of a wave of rising prices. The US dollar index can only start at a low level around 80, and it has now exceeded 85. The rise of the dollar is mainly due to the recovery of the American economy. The recent economic data released by the United States is very good, the employment situation has obviously improved, QE3 will be completely withdrawn next month, and the interest rate hike is expected to continue, which has stimulated the rise of the US dollar exchange rate.

Accordingly, the economic situation in the euro zone is very poor, the published data is not satisfactory, the German economy, as the engine of European economy, is also very weak, and deflation appears again in the euro zone. In order to stimulate the economy, the European Central Bank can only respond to the economic downturn by cutting interest rates again and adopting a larger quantitative easing policy. These policies have dealt a great blow to the exchange rate of the euro, and the euro has fallen from the previous high of 1.39 to below 1.27.

On the other hand, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not depreciated against the US dollar in the process of the rise of the US dollar index in the past three months, but has also risen to a certain extent. At present, the RMB exchange rate is still a managed floating exchange rate system. Under this system, the central bank vigorously intervenes in the exchange rate. In the past three months, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar. The main reason is that in the first half of this year, with the strong intervention of the central bank, the RMB depreciated sharply against the US dollar, which led to the artificially low exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar and did not lead to a large outflow of funds. On the contrary, the low exchange rate stimulated a large-scale rebound in exports, the net export balance became more unbalanced, the net inflow of funds increased, and the supply and demand of foreign currency and RMB in the domestic market were seriously unbalanced. In the third quarter, the central bank withdrew its intervention in the exchange rate, and the imbalance between the supply and demand of the US dollar and the RMB in the domestic market led to an increase in the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. At present, the exchange rate of USD/RMB has fallen below 6. 13, and the exchange rate of RMB against USD has reached a new high since its rebound in the third quarter. In the short term, with the rise of the US dollar index, it will inevitably affect China's foreign trade, leading to the reduction of the trade surplus, thus affecting the RMB exchange rate. However, there is a time lag in this effect, and the RMB will remain strong against the US dollar in the short term, which is still a correction to the decline in the first half of the year.