Rational use of foreign exchange reserves
Rational management and use of foreign exchange reserves to promote China's foreign investment.
The rational use and management of foreign exchange reserves and the rational allocation of foreign assets are major events related to national welfare. Due to the need to maintain liquidity, the income from holding foreign exchange reserves cannot be very high. According to the statistics of relevant departments, the rate of return on foreign assets in China is only about 3%, while the rate of return on foreign liabilities is about 6%. Foreign exchange reserves that exceed demand also face greater exchange rate risks. Therefore, maintaining excessive foreign exchange reserves is not conducive to the increase of national wealth. We should consider using foreign exchange reserves to support China's foreign investment and re-examine the rationality of China's foreign exchange reserves.
With the increasing use of RMB in international payment and domestic willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, China's trade surplus is increasingly manifested in foreign assets held by residents. In addition, China's foreign exchange reserves will also be used to support overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions of China enterprises. Foreign exchange reserves are used to set up multilateral financial institutions and funds, such as AIIB and Silk Road Fund, which will also reduce the balance of foreign exchange reserves. Of course, these assets still belong to the China government? Ammunition depot? , or? Shadow storage? .
Although the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has slowed down, China's foreign assets are shifting to a more efficient allocation model. As Fan Gang said, the decline in foreign exchange reserves does not mean that US dollars have flowed out of China, but have remained in the accounts of commercial banks. This means that China's official foreign exchange reserves have decreased, but commercial banks in China can use these dollars to invest in other financial assets such as high-yield bonds. This change in allocation mode is also conducive to improving the serious mismatch of China's external assets and liabilities and making the balance sheet of the residential sector healthier. In the past two years, China's banking and non-financial enterprises have adjusted their balance sheets, and the balance of short-term foreign debts has fallen sharply. While the scale of foreign exchange reserves has declined, the external net assets of China's resident departments have increased, and the increase scale is greater than the decline scale of foreign exchange reserves.
Finally, regarding the acceptable scale of foreign exchange reserves, referring to the usual international standards, it only needs less than one-fifth of China's current foreign exchange reserves, that is, less than 600 billion US dollars, which can support imports for three to four months; From the perspective of meeting the demand for short-term foreign debt repayment, by the end of 20 16, China's short-term foreign debt balance was $870.9 billion, and the required foreign exchange reserves were insufficient10 billion. According to the IMF's framework for evaluating the moderate level of foreign exchange reserves, the lower limit of China's moderate level of foreign exchange reserves should be no less than $65,438 +0.6 trillion for short-term foreign debts, other liabilities, broad money and export scale. Therefore, China's current foreign exchange reserves far exceed its demand. Of course, considering China's national conditions, industrial structure, China's position in the world economic and financial system and the process of RMB internationalization, China's foreign exchange reserves should be higher than this international standard, but not as much as possible.
In short, it is necessary to re-examine the rationality of China's foreign exchange reserves, hold foreign assets more scientifically and allocate national wealth more effectively.
Current situation of China's foreign exchange reserves
China has abundant foreign exchange reserves.
After a difficult accumulation period at the beginning of reform and opening up, China's foreign exchange reserves began to grow rapidly in the 1990s. In 200 1 year, China joined the WTO, and its foreign exchange reserves in that year exceeded 200 billion US dollars. Become in our country? World factory? In this process, foreign exchange reserves have increased substantially. In 2006, China surpassed Japan to become the largest foreign exchange reserve. In that year, the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to GDP was as high as 15. 1%, and foreign exchange reserves reached 106634 billion US dollars. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's economy maintained a high growth rate despite weak external demand, with an average GDP growth rate of 8.8% from 2009 to 20 14. In April 2009, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$ 2 trillion for the first time, US$ 3 trillion in March of 201year, and reached a historical peak of US$ 3.99 trillion in June of 201year, double that of five years ago (2009). From the second half of 20 14, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves began to decline. In 20 15 years, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by 51265.6 billion US dollars. Since the second half of 20 16, China's foreign exchange reserves have been declining for several months. 20 17 February, China's foreign exchange reserves ended the decline for seven consecutive months. At the end of March, 2065438+2007, the balance of foreign exchange reserves recovered to $3,009.09 billion, an increase of $3.96 billion from the previous month.
The change in the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves, whether it is rapid growth or decline in recent years, is a normal phenomenon to adapt to the stage of China's economic development. As foreign exchange reserves are essentially endorsements of national credit, the continuous accumulation of foreign exchange reserves can meet the needs of importing and stabilizing financial markets. With the improvement of RMB internationalization, China's dependence on foreign exchange reserves may further decline.
Judging from the absolute scale of foreign exchange reserves and the usual international standards, China's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient.
China's foreign exchange reserves rank first in the world.
Judging from the scale of foreign exchange reserves, by the end of 20 15, the top five countries were China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and South Korea. As the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves, China accounts for about 30% of the world's foreign exchange reserves, which are 2.8 times and 5.4 times that of Japan and Saudi Arabia respectively, and nearly 10 times that of India and Brazil. As the country with the largest economy in the world at present, the foreign exchange reserves of the United States have just exceeded $654.38+000 billion.
China's long-term stable current account surplus is still the basis for the growth of foreign exchange reserves. In 20 16, China's current account surplus was $242.9 billion, including $485.2 billion in trade in goods and $242.3 billion in trade in services. In addition, the return on investment brought by increasing foreign investment will also become a new source of future balance of payments surplus. In 20 15, China's foreign direct investment flow jumped to the second place in the world, reaching a record high of1456.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 9.9% of the global flow share, up by 18.3% year-on-year, and the amount was second only to that of the United States (299.96 billion US dollars), ranking second in the world for the first time (the third was Japanese). In 20 16, China's foreign direct investment increased by $211200 million, an increase of 12% over the previous year.
The balance of foreign reserves is sufficient to meet the prevention needs of China.
Import coverage and short-term foreign debt repayment ability (foreign exchange reserves/short-term foreign debt balance) are two classic indicators to measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves. The import payment ability index is more suitable for countries with low capital account openness. The ability to repay short-term foreign debts is very important for coping with the crisis and suitable for emerging market countries.