Because of all the countries in the world, the United States exerts the greatest pressure. This time, the United States passed a resolution in the Senate. Of course, it is now postponing the vote. What is its content? It's simple. If China's RMB doesn't appreciate significantly by 10 this year, all products from China will be subject to a tariff of 27.5%, which has been passed by most members of the US House of Representatives. This is a great event for China. Fortunately, the United States Senate left room and postponed the vote. Leave some time to see China's attitude. If you really vote, it is estimated that it will pass! This trend is very serious. Why does the United States exert so much pressure? On the surface, RMB foreign exchange is a monetary and financial phenomenon, but RMB appreciation is still a trade deficit problem. What is the truth? The United States 1982 has been in deficit for more than 20 years. In the 1980s, it was tens of billions of dollars, and in the late 1980s it exceeded 1000 billion dollars or even 200 billion dollars. 2 1 century, the annual trade volume reached 500 billion us dollars. Foreign exchange is like cash in one's pocket. You can borrow some from outside at first, but who dares to lend it to you if you keep losing money? Why America's trade deficit has not collapsed for so many years is because of its special position in the world! So many delicious, useful and wearable things come to the United States, it can print more with a printing machine, and the increase in the circulation of US dollar bills will offset the trade deficit. For more than 20 years, the trade deficit has been so large that everyone has lost confidence in the dollar. The United States is about to face the situation in the 1960s, and everyone regards the US dollar as a hot potato! So in recent years, I feel that this problem must be solved. How to solve it? There was no other way, so we took a measure. In the past, the United States pursued a strong dollar policy, that is, trying to build people's confidence in the dollar around the world. The foreign exchange of US dollars is maintained at a relatively high level, and the trend is relatively firm! At first glance, the foreign exchange trend of the US dollar is very strong, which means that the US dollar can be used, people will have confidence and confidence, and everyone will hold on to the US dollar. In recent years, there is no way to change the "strong dollar policy" into a "weak dollar policy", and the decline of foreign exchange in the US dollar has produced a foreign exchange dumping effect. If it is changed to a weak dollar policy, the United States will act quietly at first! When the euro is strong against the dollar, 1 euro can be exchanged for 0.8 dollars, which was three or four years ago; If the United States tries to weaken the dollar exchange rate, it will become 1 euro, which can be exchanged for 1.3 dollars, and the dollar will depreciate against the euro. The US Treasury Secretary said that "a weak dollar policy can be adopted to solve the trade deficit problem of the United States", but George W. Bush never admitted that he was a weak dollar, and he always stressed that he was a strong dollar. This has had an impact, and it has had an impact on Japan and the European Union. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the euro has fallen, and the trade balance with them has narrowed, and even some traded goods may have a surplus! But it won't affect China goods, because RMB appreciation was announced on 2 1 this month. Before that, what was the RMB foreign exchange system in China? What the government initially announced was "a single, managed and floating foreign exchange system based on market supply and demand", which was actually pegged to the US dollar in the specific operation process. During the Asian financial crisis, the RMB has been pegged to the US dollar. When the dollar currency goes up, I go up and you go down. In order to change the trade deficit, it quietly changed the weak dollar policy from the strong dollar policy, but it didn't work for China. No matter how the RMB falls, it will not change. So there is no way for China to achieve this effect. This is very annoying to the United States. Because the biggest trade deficit in the United States now comes from China, and among all the trade deficits in the United States, the trade deficit with China is the highest. According to their statistics, China lost160 billion dollars last year. According to this year's forecast, there will be at least $200 billion. China alone will lose $200 billion. How to reduce the total trade deficit of $500 billion? This is the most important purpose of the United States to pressure the appreciation of the renminbi, so it is desperately pressing you. Generally speaking, it is to grasp a meaning that "the RMB foreign exchange system must show greater flexibility." To put it bluntly, don't stare at the dollar. If you do this again, my dollar will be useless! The United States will press the RMB to appreciate for a while, and then it will not talk about RMB appreciation. It will directly make a fuss about trade, and let China buy more American goods, so that its trade balance will be less!

Advantages and disadvantages for China

What impact will a 2% appreciation of RMB have on trade? Let me comb it from the angle first. This influence has both positive and negative aspects. The first influence is the foreign exchange dumping effect. What is "foreign exchange dumping effect"? It has a definition: consciously lowering the exchange rate of the local currency, so that the price of export commodities expressed in foreign currency is higher than before. Because RMB is valuable, other things being the same, others' demand for you will decrease. The price of imported goods expressed in RMB is cheaper, that is to say, for the development of foreign trade, it is divided into two parts, mainly export enterprises. If other conditions remain unchanged, it is difficult to increase your export volume only if the RMB appreciates; Then if we mainly do import trade, the cost will drop, because the prices of imported goods are cheap. Or your export goods mainly use imported goods as raw materials, and your cost may have some impact, but it may be less than the loss of pure import trade! But generally speaking, this effect emphasizes its negative effects, because China's export volume is very large, and the difficulties brought by RMB appreciation to trade and exports lie in this aspect. You should try to digest this part in the middle of the price. However, this factor cannot be overemphasized, because it is related to a defect in China's export trade, and we tend to engage in low-price competition, which is the achilles heel of China's export trade. In addition, I think we should pay attention to the influence of other aspects, which is positive for the development of foreign trade in general. The second effect is the trade structure effect. China's foreign trade has created a miracle, but at the same time, there are some obvious problems in our trade structure, such as 1, and the proportion of foreign capital exports is somewhat high. About 60% of China's more than 600 billion exports last year were exported by foreign-funded enterprises, while real domestic enterprises, including state-owned enterprises, collective enterprises and private enterprises, accounted for less than 50% of domestic enterprises. 2. The export trade volume is large, but the added value of products is too low. You can give a simple example. Last year, I heard a story at a WTO meeting in Beijing. In 2003, I went to the Northeast for an investigation. A mayor in charge of industry in Shenyang said that in 2003, Shenyang's export trade volume was US$ 6,543.803 billion, of which US$ 600 million was exported by foreign-funded enterprises, accounting for about 40%. And how much does China account for this 600 million export? He has two or three thousand employees, with an average salary of 1300 yuan, and raw materials are imported from abroad. Think about it, China earned two, one is the labor income of employees, and the other is some taxes paid. We also know that the government gives preferential treatment to foreign-funded enterprises, and the salary of this employee is negligible in the $600 million. So this kind of export looks great, but the added value is very low. These are two very serious problems in the foreign trade structure. Now that RMB appreciation is beneficial in this respect, I won't expand this view. Maybe this view is a little different from other views. If other conditions of RMB appreciation remain unchanged, it is difficult to introduce foreign capital just because of RMB appreciation. Why? After the appreciation of RMB, foreign investment in China is expressed in US dollars. Similarly, the amount of1100,000 dollars converted into RMB was relatively large before, but now it is less converted into RMB, so it will be reduced. In the foreign trade structure, the export proportion of foreign-funded enterprises will also decrease accordingly! But sometimes, the introduction of foreign capital may increase somewhat, probably because other factors offset the impact of RMB appreciation on him. Now I put aside other factors, it is more difficult to introduce foreign capital just because the RMB appreciates! In addition, the export of low value-added goods will be gradually eliminated. We could have engaged in low-price competition and exported with low added value, but now it's no good! It is normal that enterprises exporting low value-added goods will face serious difficulties and even go bankrupt. Of course, there is only one problem to be solved first, that is, how to increase employment for the transferred labor force and reduce the unemployment rate. The appreciation of RMB is the general trend. It is 2% now, and it may appreciate again in the future. It is only possible to maintain a relatively stable ratio until about the same time. Judging from the trade structure, it is positive! It turns out that the government has been desperately promoting the improvement of foreign trade structure. Although some achievements have been made, the results are not known. If the RMB appreciates this time, it may accelerate the improvement of foreign trade structure. Third, the scale of trade. Trade scale does not mean trade volume. How to expand the scale can be seen from several aspects. The first is import trade. If it is not artificially suppressed, it can be further improved because the price is cheaper. However, there is one factor to consider. Because export trade is blocked, import trade may be affected and the overall import trade may increase. There is a formula in academic circles that the expansion of a country's export trade scale is affected by several factors, including transportation costs. After the appreciation of RMB, the transportation cost will drop, because the transportation cost is paid in US dollars, so the transportation cost can't rise, but only drop. Needless to say, other factors are generally declining and impossible to rise. Import trade can be expanded accordingly, and export trade can be proved to be expanded theoretically, so there is no need to worry about the scale of trade. What is complicated is the volume of trade and foreign exchange, which will not be developed here because of time. The fourth terms of trade. What is the meaning of terms of trade? This concept is relatively rarely heard. The complexity of terms of trade can be divided into five concepts. I don't need to make it so complicated. I'll say the simplest one, that is, the price of export goods multiplied by 100% of the price of imported goods expressed in currency. If you export a shirt, you can exchange 50 Jin of rice today and 55 Jin of rice tomorrow, which shows that the terms of trade have improved; If you can exchange 45 kg of rice the day after tomorrow, it means that the terms of trade have deteriorated. This term may be used more and more. In the past, China pursued the quantity of trade exports without emphasizing the benefits of trade. Therefore, the concept of terms of trade is rarely publicized in the trade circle, and terms of trade are generally conducive to improvement. In other words, the general trend of China's export products will bring more and more foreign exchange products. The fifth trade policy effect. What do you mean by trade policy effect? After the appreciation of RMB, it has touched the trade policy of the central government and the behavior of local governments. For the civil servants of local governments, we particularly emphasize one point. The behavior of local government in China is a paradox. What is paradox? The actions of many local governments are contradictory. On the one hand, local governments have the enthusiasm to actively develop local economy and trade growth, and have put a lot of brains into it and introduced many policies to promote it, which should be fully affirmed; However, due to various reasons, the behavior of local governments and some policies issued by the central government are in the opposite direction. This is a special phenomenon in China. You can't blame the local government and dampen its enthusiasm, but the policies introduced by the local government are often aimed at protecting and encouraging the following enterprises to engage in extensive industries. Including China's entry into WTO, many criticisms of China by WTO come from the actions of local governments. Now, some extensive enterprises and local governments have consciously changed. Only the first one here is negative. Don't think that RMB appreciation will definitely have a negative impact on trade development. It won't be like this. Sixth, the trend of RMB exchange rate. A 2% rise in RMB clearly tells us that this 2% will be relatively stable for some time. However, this stability is not static. Since it is set to 2%, this is a typical experimental practice. It depends on how big the impact on our banks and enterprises is and whether all parties can bear it. We must implement it for a period of time first. If you can bear it, you can digest it, without big fluctuations, and continue to appreciate until the next unexpected opportunity. This is my personal opinion. Why? One is that there are many opportunities for RMB appreciation. In the past few years, the directors of American (g a o s h e n g) Group have had a great influence on China's RMB analysis. Two years ago, he analyzed that RMB would appreciate 15%! Now the United States has revealed through various channels that the requirement for RMB appreciation is 10-40%, which means that 10% is the bottom line, at least 10%. Of course, 40% is impossible. At least it reminds us that China should increase by at least 10%. Judging from 2% and 5% of the two online schemes, 2% was finally chosen, but it doesn't mean that 5% of the schemes are not accepted by the central government? Think about it, the United States requires you to be at least 10%. Will America agree to your 2% increase? 40% of China's trade exports are realized in the United States! You have really strained the relationship between the United States, and it is absolutely not good for China to break off diplomatic relations completely. This is not a win-win situation, but a lose-lose situation. I understand the central government's attitude towards American demands. In addition, I have repeatedly stressed my view that we must take economic construction as the center, because the rise of China in the past 25 years is based on this route. Since it is centered on economic construction, as long as it does not involve major principles, it must be adhered to. Second, 30-40% of the annual export is realized in the United States, which is a highly dependent market for China! Third, we should consider some characteristics of American trade operation. As the only superpower, the United States is sometimes arrogant and unreasonable, but the world speaks with strength and it does the same. What can you do? For example, international rules prohibit attacking Iraq, but Iraq has strength and you can't help it. Similarly, if the United States is determined to make a clean break with you economically, you must take this great achievement into account. What's more, there is an inherent need for RMB appreciation. If others don't put pressure on you, the RMB should appreciate, but this problem becomes urgent after others put pressure on you. China has the habit of putting it off as long as it can. It's like not changing anything that can be reformed before, but changing it as soon as it enters the WTO. For example, if the bank had not joined the WTO, the reform of the bank might not be so fast. The idea of reform is publicized and talked about, but there is no positive action; However, after China's entry into WTO, the reform was more active than originally advertised, and some of the four major banks also introduced foreign capital and went public. Similarly, due to international pressure, this issue has become urgent. For the above reasons, I think the current attitude of our central government is more appropriate. Raise the price by 2% first to see the situation, and then you may have to prepare for it. The United States requires you to have 10%, and you must have at least 6%, so that we have room for bargaining. Of course, it is impossible to increase it to 10% due to the trend. It may take about two years to reach 5%, and it may take time to reach 10%.