Recently, the economic situation in Japan has attracted people's attention and various discussions have taken place. Some people think that Japan's economy has experienced the worst recession since the post-war period, while others think that Japan's "so-called economic recession is one of the strategies of the Japanese government to implement' losing the economy' in its external propaganda, with the aim of covering up its economic strength and providing an excuse for the government to intervene in the economy."

The author believes that a country's economic depression or recession is a national phenomenon, and it must be judged mainly by statistical data, not by "feeling". Although the Japanese government's GDP and other economic statistics have such problems, they can basically reflect the actual situation of the Japanese economy. According to Japanese economic statistics, Japan's economy turned into depression in June 2000 after a short recovery from 1999 to 2000. From April 2000 1 year to February 2000 1 year (that is, the first three quarters of Japan's fiscal year 20001year), Japan's GDP experienced negative growth for three consecutive quarters. In economics, when a country's economy declines for two consecutive quarters, it can be considered as economic recession (in the United States after World War II, economic recession generally refers to the decline of real gross national product for at least two quarters 1.5%. Above, at the same time, the unemployment rate rose to more than 6%). Statistics show that the Japanese economy has indeed fallen into recession.

Although Japan's economy has fallen into recession after a decade-long downturn, its economic development level is indeed very high, at least much higher than that of China, and the average living standard of its citizens is also much higher than ours, whether from the average living standard of the Japanese people or from the economic scale, balance of payments, private savings, foreign exchange reserves, foreign creditor's rights and the technical level of manufacturing in Japan. However, economic depression or recession refers to the dynamic of economic development, reflecting the current economic situation from the original level (. The nominal value of Japan's GDP in 200 1 year (without excluding price changes) is 5 13.5 trillion yen, 505.8 trillion yen and 5010.8 trillion yen respectively; The actual value (based on the price of 1995) is 539.7 trillion yen, 533.2 trillion yen and 530.3 trillion yen respectively, which shows that Japan's GDP is decreasing in both nominal and real terms. Whether a country's economy is in recession or not and the level of economic development are two different things. No matter how high the original level of economic development is, as long as there is an obvious retrogression and an overall decline in economic activities, it means economic recession.

In fact, the actual situation of the Japanese economy is more serious than the actual growth rate mentioned above. First of all, the nominal growth rate before excluding price changes is worse than the actual growth rate (for example, in 2006, it was estimated that the former was negative 2.7% and the latter was negative1.1%; In 2002, it was -2.2% and -0.5% respectively, reflecting that Japan's economy has fallen into severe deflation (that is, prices have continued to fall and demand has shrunk). Secondly, in the 1990s, Japan's economy was able to maintain a real average annual growth rate of more than 1%, which was the result of the Japanese government's "strong arm" again and again. If the government hadn't used fiscal measures to stimulate the economy for a total of 10 times, the total scale of "prosperity countermeasures" would be as high as 136 trillion yen, which is close to 1/ of Japan's GDP. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in Japan has been rising for four consecutive months, reaching 5.6% in 200 1 and 12 years. Both the government and the public predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise, even exceeding 6%. At the same time, if the "internal unemployment" is included, the actual unemployment situation in Japan is more serious than that reflected by unemployment statistics.

Another question is whether Japan can "hide" its economic truth from the outside world. In today's world, due to the increasingly close international economic ties, it can be said that the economic development and strength of almost every country are closely watched by other countries and international organizations, and Japan, as the second largest economic power in the world, is no exception. In Japan, the economic situation is not only monitored by government agencies, but also by a large number of non-government investigation and forecasting agencies. If the government deliberately "hides" the truth for political purposes, non-governmental organizations can't do it, because describing the good situation as bad will mislead the investment activities of non-governmental enterprises, and as a result, these non-governmental forecasting institutions can't stand on their feet. In addition, outside Japan, international organizations such as OECD, IMF and World Bank are also monitoring Japan's economic situation. Judging from the published figures, institutions outside the Japanese government are more pessimistic about Japan's economic situation than the Japanese government.

Among them, it is particularly noteworthy that the latest forecast of OECD points out that Japan is the only country among the 30 OECD member countries with negative GDP growth for two consecutive years, the only country with negative nominal growth rate, and the only country with lower nominal growth rate than actual growth rate and negative GDP consumption index. Japan's fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is the highest among OECD countries, and its government debt balance is the highest among OECD countries in 2002, greatly surpassing Italy, which has always been known for its poor financial situation.

Another group of people who are very concerned about the Japanese economy are investors from all over the world. Because Japan's economic situation is directly related to their investment decisions. 1October 9th 1998, the average share price of Nikkei dropped to 12879.97 yen from 2 1036.76 yen and 1990 yen on September 28th. At that time, the head of the Japanese economic planning department said that "this is the darkest period of the Japanese economy." 200 1 Before the Japanese economic recession in the second quarter, the average share price of Nikkei reached 19835 yen, but it fell below 9500 yen on February 5, 2002, down more than 50% than before the recession. It is 26% lower than June 1998, which is called "the darkest period of Japanese economy", and it is also the lowest figure since June 1985 signed the Plaza Agreement. Obviously, the depressed stock market is a mirror of the depressed Japanese economy.

Of course, Japan's current economic situation cannot escape the eyes of international credit rating companies. Due to the deterioration of Japan's financial situation, Japan's national debt rating has been downgraded several times. American rating company S&; In February 20001year, the credit rating of Japanese government bonds dropped from the highest AAA to AA+, and in February 2006 54 38+0, the long-term credit rating of Japanese government bonds dropped from AA+ to AA, ranking first with Italy as a developed country.

It is worth noting that when Japan's economy is in recession, especially when fiscal and financial macro-control policies and measures are almost exhausted, the Japanese government's policy orientation has a dangerous tendency of "going back", that is, instead of encouraging private enterprises to explore high-tech industries and upgrade the industrial structure through strict structural reforms, it hopes to fundamentally get out of the economic downturn, but to enhance the competitiveness of export enterprises, curb imports and protect the country through the depreciation of the yen. The exchange rate of Japanese yen against US dollar was about 65,438+0 USD to 65,438+008 JPY in June 2000, and it was reduced to about 65,438+032 JPY in June 2002. Although the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar is mainly the market's response to the comparison between Japan and the United States, the Japanese government is not as "useless" as it claims. On the occasion of the temporary appreciation of the yen after the "9. 1 1" incident, the Bank of Japan intervened several times to induce the yen exchange rate, and at the same time, Japan's foreign exchange reserves also rose sharply (mainly by selling a lot of yen to buy US Treasury bonds). This can not help but make the outside world wonder whether the Japanese government has formulated or is implementing a strategy to save the Japanese economy by using the depreciation of the yen, and whether Japan's grim economic situation is used by the Japanese government as an excuse to intervene and induce the foreign exchange market.

People can't help worrying that the Japanese government, which has repeatedly made mistakes in the economy since the 1990s, may make mistakes and miscalculate again. Obviously, for Asian countries, if everyone works hard to set off a competition for technological progress and industrial upgrading, it will definitely bring "double harvest"; On the other hand, if everyone conducts a currency devaluation competition, it will inevitably end in a loss of "* * *", especially in Japan.

Of course, we can't deny the fact that Japan's economy is declining, because the Japanese government uses this as an excuse to devalue the yen. The depreciation of the yen may be a strategy, but the economic recession is a fact rather than a strategy.