At the second China International Import Expo being held, 60 multinational exhibitors including Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford brought more than 70 new products and technologies, and the consumption upgrade of new energy vehicles became the main highlight.
Just yesterday, the top-level design of China's new energy automobile industry also made the latest progress. Luo Junjie, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China Automobile Industry Development Forum held during the Second China International Import Expo on the 7th that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking the lead in compiling the new energy vehicle development plan for 20021-2035, and the plan is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions.
Affected by this news, the concept plate of new energy vehicles rose sharply in early trading.
Highlights of planning: electrification, networking, intelligence and sharing.
As early as 20 12, the State Council issued the development plan of energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry (20 12-2020) (hereinafter referred to as "2020 plan"), which determined that pure electric drive would be the main strategic direction for the development of new energy vehicles and the transformation of automobile industry, with emphasis on promoting the industrialization of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. In the past few years, the new energy vehicle industry has made great progress, and China has become the largest new energy vehicle market in the world for three consecutive years. However, since 20 19, due to the downturn in the auto market and the decline in subsidies, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has declined rapidly, and the production and sales volume has declined for three consecutive months from July to September.
In fact, the "20021-2035 New Energy Vehicle Development Plan" (draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "draft for comments") has been circulated since the middle of last month, although the staff of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told me that the content of the draft for comments is not the final version and will be adjusted to varying degrees according to the feedback. However, the principles and directions disclosed in this document should not be changed.
Compared with the 2020 plan, the exposure draft emphasizes market dominance and innovation drive as the main means, and pays more attention to encouraging technological innovation capabilities, building new industrial ecology and infrastructure construction. The government no longer assumes the responsibility of guidance.
The development goals continue the general direction of the 2020 plan, and are also in line with the milestone goals proposed in the technical roadmap for energy-saving and new energy vehicles, including:
By 2025, the competitiveness of new energy vehicles will be significantly improved, with sales accounting for 20% of the total car sales in that year, and sales of qualified self-driving intelligent networked vehicles accounting for 30%. The highly self-driving intelligent networked car will be commercialized in a limited area, with the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars reduced to 4.0L/ 100km and the average power consumption of new energy passenger cars reduced to 1 1.0 kWh/65438.
By 2030, new energy vehicles will form a competitive advantage in the market, with sales accounting for 40% of the total car sales in that year, and qualified self-driving intelligent networked vehicles accounting for 70%. Highly self-driving intelligent networked cars are widely used in expressways and some urban roads.
In terms of R&D, the "three verticals and three horizontals" are redefined, with pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles as the "three verticals" and power batteries and management systems, drive motors and power electronics, networking and intelligent technologies as the "three horizontals". At the same time, in the "infrastructure construction", it is proposed to encourage the construction of power exchange technology routes and power exchange networks, as well as the construction of hydrogen fuel cell infrastructure.
In terms of supporting policies, the subsidy policy will be completely abolished and replaced by "improving the automobile tax system and encouraging the consumption of energy-saving and new energy vehicles"; "Improve the parallel management method of enterprise average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points, and establish a linkage mechanism with the carbon trading market"; When formulating the evaluation system of "Smart City of New Energy Vehicles", it indicated that it would give financial incentives and policy support to the place that won the title.
Ping An Securities said that from the perspective of development goals, it is necessary to achieve market dominance, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in technical routes and capacity layout, and improve the competitiveness of new energy vehicles; From the policy environment, we should relax access standards and strengthen process supervision. From the perspective of infrastructure construction, the two-way energy interaction between new energy vehicles and the power grid, with slow charging as the main charging facility and fast charging as the supplement, will be carried out to demonstrate the application of hydrogen production and hydrogen storage according to local conditions. It is expected that giving full play to the market effect and strengthening the control of emissions and double points will force car companies to carry out supply-side reform of new energy vehicles. The new energy industry is the general trend. It is estimated that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will still maintain a certain growth rate from 2019 to 2020, and independent brands will have the first-Mover advantage during this period.
Luo Junjie introduced that the "Planning" will focus on the "four modernizations", that is, the development direction of electrification, networking, intelligence and enjoyment.
"Last week, we specially held a symposium on foreign investment to listen to opinions. Next, we will take the planning as an opportunity to further consolidate the industry understanding, clarify the development direction, effectively enhance the new kinetic energy of industrial development, optimize the industrial development environment, and strive to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry. " Luo Junjie said.
Luo Junjie believes that the global automobile market still has a lot of room for growth, especially compared with developed countries.
Germany upgrades subsidies for new energy vehicles, brokers: 2020 will be the first year of global electrification.
Unlike the domestic plan to cancel subsidies, the German government plans to increase subsidies for electric vehicles by half in the five years from 2020 as the latest measure to accelerate the adoption of low-emission vehicles.
According to Reuters, the German government plans to increase the subsidy for electric vehicles from the current 3,000 euros to 4,500 euros, and the subsidy for cars with a price exceeding 40,000 euros will be increased to 5,000 euros. In addition to subsidies, it is estimated that by 2030, Germany will have 6,543,800+0,000 electric vehicle charging stations. The German government hopes that by 2030, there will be10,000 electric vehicles on the road.
Guosen Securities said that Germany's policy of increasing subsidies for electric vehicles exceeded market expectations and also reflected the firm determination of electrification in Europe. In the medium and long term, 2020 will be the first year of global electrification. As an industrial power, the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany is less than 2%, far lower than that in China and the United States. Both the most stringent carbon emissions in the world implemented by the European Union and Germany's policy of supporting electric vehicles have laid a solid foundation for electrification in Europe, and traditional European car companies have also launched electric vehicle platforms to accelerate the transformation of electrification. According to Marklines, the annual growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in Europe will reach more than 40% in the next seven years. In the short term, the rise of overseas supply chains has opened up new markets for domestic lithium battery enterprises. Both Volkswagen MEB platform and Tesla industrial chain are expected to increase rapidly from 2020, and a relatively stable and high-quality overseas supply system will provide profit guarantee for supply chain companies. It is recommended to benefit from the global supply chain opportunities of lithium batteries and the leading enterprises of high-quality lithium batteries.
BOC International Securities believes that the global demand for new energy vehicles is expected to exceed expectations in 2020. First, the emission standards of major countries and regions are increasingly strict, and major governments have successively introduced support policies for new energy vehicles; Second, the electrification process of major car companies in the world (Volkswagen, Tesla, etc.). ) acceleration, the new electric platform (Volkswagen MEB platform) was put into use, and the explosive models were intensively listed. The cost-effective advantages of new energy vehicles are gradually emerging, which is expected to drive global demand growth. Recommend Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., a domestic battery supplier of Volkswagen MEB platform, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, which has entered the high-end supply chain of overseas car companies; LG's supply chain targets are Putailai, Dang Sheng Science and Technology, Xinzhoubang and En Jie.
Citic Securities believes that from a global perspective, China's electrified supply chain is the most complete and largest, and it is accelerating global support. For battery enterprises, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and LG Chem directly support Volkswagen MEB platform models, while China battery supply chain indirectly supports Volkswagen MEB platform through LG Chem and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. In terms of parts, Huayu Automobile and Sanhua Zhikong have entered the supply chain of MEB platform. China's power supply chain has been globally competitive. With the acceleration of Volkswagen, Tesla and global electrification, the value of leading enterprises in related links as global high-quality manufacturing assets is expected to be highlighted.