Different from the idea of being a part of western civilization during the white racist regime, the development concept and strategy of the new South African government are based on Africa. South Africa can't leave the African continent to take off alone, and Africa's economic development and integration process also benefit from South Africa's promotion. The interactive relationship between South Africa and the African continent in the past decade reflects this point, and this trend will be more obvious in the next decade.
First of all, South Africa's economy is ready for growth.
1. Maintain macroeconomic stability while carrying out political changes.
South Africa has achieved political stability and national reconciliation since it abolished apartheid in 1994 and established a democratic system with racial equality, which has brought an unprecedented favorable domestic environment for economic development. In the past decade, South Africa ended the economic recession in the late apartheid period. While maintaining macroeconomic stability, we have reformed and adjusted the inter-ethnic economic inequality and dual economic structure caused by the old system. The economy has basically maintained healthy development, the investment environment and economic structure have been more optimized, the ability to cope with the challenges of globalization has been enhanced, and the economy and society have shown a good momentum of development.
According to the data in the Ten Years Review officially released by South Africa, from 1 994 to 2003, South Africa's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.8% (excluding the years affected by the Asian financial crisis, the growth reached 3.5%); The average annual growth rate of GDP per capita is1%; The fiscal deficit decreased from 1993 to 65438+9.5% of GDP to 1% in 2002-2003. Public sector debt decreased from 65,438+64% of GDP in 2004 to 50% in 2003; The net debt of the South African Reserve Bank in the international foreign exchange market reached $25 billion in 1994, decreased to $22.5 billion in 1998, and was zero in 2003. During this period, foreign exchange reserves can cover 1 month's imports, reaching 2.5 months' imports; From 1993 to 2003, the average annual growth rate of consumer prices was 7.3%, almost half of that of 14.3% in the decade before 1993, and the inflation rate remained at the target level of 3%-6% in most years. The proportion of manufacturing products in the total export value was 25% in 1994, and increased to 38% in 2003; Private sector investment increased by 5.4% every year; From 1 993 to 2003, the real disposable income of families increased by 3% every year. At the same time, South Africa has joined almost all international economic organizations and become an active member. Usually, South Africa is a country that gives priority to signing free trade agreements with African countries. At present, two regional economic organizations have signed free trade agreements with South Africa, namely the Southern African Development Community and the European Union. In addition, negotiations on a free trade agreement between South Africa and the South American Market Community have been completed and need the approval of the parliaments of the countries concerned. At present, countries and regional organizations that are negotiating free trade with South Africa include the European Free Trade Association (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), India, China and the United States. South Africa is also exploring signing free trade agreements with Nigerian countries and some regional organizations in Africa. In addition, South Africa also enjoys trade preferences granted by the African Development and Opportunity Act of the United States.
At present, South Africa's economy has experienced the longest period of stable macroeconomic growth (23 quarters) in half a century, during which the gross domestic product increased by 3.5% annually. In the second half of 2004, the economic growth reached 5%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.25%. Domestic demand in South Africa is strong, and investment in fixed assets is also rising.
2. The economic status of black people has improved.
With the change of politics, the adjustment of economic interests is inevitable. South Africa's economic reform is not a revolution of ownership, but an adjustment of resource allocation. In addition to abolishing all laws and regulations of racial discrimination through legislation, the South African government's main means is to correct the economic inequality caused by apartheid through fiscal policies and economic and social development plans to help blacks. Over the years, the expenditure on public services for the poor in the South African government budget has been increasing. In the budget allocation of the South African government over the years, education, public health, welfare and social services accounted for 50% of the total budget, reaching 59% in 2004, of which education expenditure accounted for more than 20% and health expenditure accounted for more than 10%.
In order to correct the deprivation of blacks (so-called "non-whites", including Africans, Indians and colored people) by apartheid in terms of production materials and development opportunities (employment and education), since the establishment of the new government ten years ago, Laws and regulations such as Affirmative.Action and Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment Act (BEE) have been promulgated and implemented successively to promote and help the economic development of black people, with the aim of not only improving their basic living conditions, but also "realizing substantial changes in the racial composition of ownership and management structure".
According to the figures in the 2004 budget report of South Africa's Finance Minister, in the past 65,438+00 years, the achievements in improving the basic economic and social needs of most blacks mainly include: 654.38+600,000 houses were built, 700 health clinics were built, 9 million people were provided with canned drinking water, 6.4 million people were provided with new sanitation facilities, and 4.5 million children benefited from the primary school nutrition program.
Since 1994, a growing black middle class has emerged in South Africa. According to the statistics of the South African Ministry of Trade and Industry, blacks have accounted for 10% of business owners and 15% of technicians. Judging from the racial composition of consumers, among the 4.5 million high-income earners in South Africa, there are10.8 million blacks, accounting for about 40%(2004). Since 2000, the income level of 270,000 blacks has entered the "middle class" of the higher income class. From 200 1 year to 2003, 390,000 people in South Africa rose to the middle class, 70% of whom were black.
3. Emerging industries become growth points.
For a century and a half, the unique precious metals and strategic mineral resources have been the economic pillars of South Africa, forming a modern mining, smelting industry and related processing, manufacturing, finance, science and technology industrial system with mining as the core. Since 1994, with the unprecedented expansion of the international space for South Africa's economic development, South Africa's manufacturing and scientific and technological information industries have developed rapidly, and the industrial structure has also changed. At present, the mining industry is still the leading industry in South Africa's economic development, but its proportion in GDP has declined, the proportion of manufacturing and service industries has increased, and the information and communication technology industry has developed rapidly, which has become an important factor driving economic growth.
The South African government attaches importance to the development of science and technology and emerging industries. 1996 south African government sets up innovation fund. In the past five years, the government budget investment in scientific development has increased by 27%. In 2002, the government approved the National Research and Development (R&; D) strategy, one of the purposes is to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, and at the same time pay attention to the development of human resources, especially to cultivate black scientific and technological talents. In recent years, R&D investment in South Africa has increased year by year. From 200 1 to 2002, the R&D investment was 7.5 billion rand (about 1 billion US dollars), accounting for O.76%% of the GDP of that year. In 2005, the South African government increased R&D expenditure to 65,438+0% of GDP.
Telecommunications is the fastest growing industry in South Africa. The government attaches importance to the position of the information and communication technology sector in the economy, and relevant policies play a key role in the development of this industry. At present, South Africa ranks 23rd in the world in telecom development and17th in Internet usage. The number of Internet users in South Africa ranks first in Africa, reaching 2.89 million by the end of 200/kloc-0. South Africa's mobile communication growth rate ranks fourth in the world. By June 2003, the number of mobile phone users in South Africa had reached150,000, and it is expected to reach 2 10/00,000 by 2006.
The wide application of information and communication technology in South African enterprises has surpassed that of the United States and Europe, and the investment of government and enterprises in information technology application ranks among the top in the world. In order to expand their business in rural areas, several major banks in South Africa are increasing their investment in satellite and mobile communication technology. In order to meet the challenge of hosting the 20 10 World Cup, South Africa plans to build a large-scale information and communication technology infrastructure in the next five years. Foreign direct investment in South Africa's information and communication technology industry has surpassed mining and mining.
The trend of domestic investment is getting stronger and stronger.
In recent years, the three major sources of investment in South Africa, namely domestic private investment, government financial investment and foreign investment, have all grown rapidly. The steady growth of investment in fixed assets began in 2002, reflecting the high-level investment made by the South African government to strengthen infrastructure and improve public services. Although there are still some uncertain international factors in the investment environment, economists believe that South Africa has many favorable factors for investment, such as low interest rate, low inflation rate and strong consumer demand, which will surely attract investors' attention.
In recent years, large South African multinational companies have increased their investment in China. For example, South African Brewing Company, the second largest brewer in the world, will invest 5 billion rand in China in the next five years, and South African Sasol Company (with the world-leading coal-to-oil technology) will invest 654.38+0.5 billion rand. In 2004, the investment of South African automobile manufacturers reached the highest level in five years-3.5 billion rand. At the same time, large-scale investment projects driven by the construction industry and automobile manufacturing industry will also drive more investment activities of small and medium-sized enterprises, and this round of large-scale investment will drive employment growth. Different from the past 10 years, the main purpose of investment is to improve the degree of automation and international competitiveness. The current investment boom mainly focuses on domestic consumer demand and the good prospects of domestic economic development. South African state-owned enterprises also have large-scale investment plans. For example, South Africa Power Company and South Africa Communications Company are prepared to invest 654.38+065 billion rand to improve South Africa's infrastructure.
The large-scale investment plans of domestic companies in South Africa show the confidence of the business community to continue to be optimistic about the investment environment in South Africa, which will also have a positive impact on potential foreign investors. In 20001year, foreign direct investment reached 370.7 billion rand, while in 1995 it was only 54.7 billion rand. More than 90% of foreign investment is concentrated in four areas: finance, mining, manufacturing and community social services. Europe continues to be the largest source of foreign investment in South Africa, accounting for 57.3% of South Africa's foreign investment in 1 995 and increasing to 68.5% in 20001year. During the same period, the proportion of foreign investment from America declined, while the proportion of foreign investment from Asia and Africa remained basically unchanged.
In the past ten years, South Africa has ended the isolation and sanctions of the international community and truly gained an open world market. In this situation, South Africa's multinational companies and financial institutions benefit first. Not only the traditional European and American markets are reopened to South Africa, but also the vast areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America have become a new world for South African enterprises to explore. International trade, investment and personnel exchange have brought unprecedented development opportunities to South Africa.
Second, South Africa's Africa strategy and its position in African economy.
1. Development strategy based on Africa.
South Africa is a political and economic power in Africa, and its diplomatic strategy is based on Africa, giving priority to southern Africa. From Mandela to Mbeki, they all attach great importance to relations with other African countries. In recent years, South Africa has taken active actions in promoting African unity and self-improvement, participating in peacekeeping and conflict mediation, emergency disaster relief and assistance, and established a responsible image as a regional power. At the same time, South Africa attaches importance to consultations with other African powers and plays a role in solving African affairs, especially strengthening relations with Nigeria and strengthening cooperation between the two sides in African affairs.
Mbeki is an advocate of African renaissance. He called on people not only to contribute to the prosperity of South Africa, but also to the revival of Africa, and to make 2 1 century "the century of Africa". Driven by South Africa, African countries have formulated the New Partnership for Africa's Development and established a series of relevant institutions and mechanisms to promote African integration and all-round economic and social development. For example, the African Renaissance Association was established to explore the relationship between political democratization and traditional cultural values, and to strengthen coordination and cooperation among African countries in education, communications, economic statistics and public health. The South African government has also approved the establishment of the "International Cooperation Fund for African Renaissance" to help other African countries cooperate with South Africa and carry out cooperation projects with other African countries with external assistance. Of course, South Africa doesn't just pay. The improvement of relations between China and other African countries has also promoted the economic and trade cooperation between China and other African countries and opened up the African market.
The South African government also actively strives for Africa's interests by using international institutions and forums, including cancelling Africa's debts and agricultural subsidies of developed countries, and striving for the legitimate rights and interests of African countries in the international economy, so that their economic interests are increasingly closely linked with Africa's development.
2. South Africa's economic status in Africa.
In the mid-1990s, before the political changes, South Africa's economic aggregate accounted for 1/4 of the total GDP of the African continent, accounting for about 40% of sub-Saharan Africa and 80% of Southern Africa. South Africa produces more than 50% of electricity in Africa; Steel production accounts for 83% of Africa; Coal production accounts for 97% of Africa; The total freight volume of railways accounts for 69% of Africa; Car ownership exceeds the sum of other African countries; Paved roads account for 45% of Africa; There are 5 million telephones, accounting for 38% of the African continent. South Africa is also the only important manufacturing base in sub-Saharan Africa, which has absolute advantages in technology and management talents.
In 2000, South Africa's GDP accounted for nearly 47% of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP, and if calculated by purchasing power, it accounted for 38. 1.8%. South Africa's industrial output value and mining output value account for 40% and 45% of Africa respectively. In 200 1 year, South Africa's gross national income accounted for 22.8% of Africa, 39.6% of sub-Saharan Africa and 70.3% of Southern Africa. In 2002, South Africa's GDP accounted for 65,438+09% of the African continent's GDP, 33% of sub-Saharan Africa and 64% of Southern Africa.
In the past five years, the mobile phone market in Africa has grown faster than other parts of the world. By the end of 2004, the number of mobile phone users in Africa reached 76.8 million, accounting for 8.8% of the total population, equivalent to nearly three times the number of fixed phone users. The proportion of South Africa's mobile phone ownership in the African continent was almost 100% in the early 1990s, but by the middle and late 1990s, mobile communication in other African countries began to develop rapidly, gradually surpassing South Africa. At present, the proportion of mobile phone users in South Africa accounts for about 40% of the total users in Africa, and it has a leading development strength in this field.
In recent years, with the formulation and implementation of the New Partnership for Africa's Development, some trans-regional large-scale infrastructure projects are being built in Africa, including power networks in southern Africa, west Africa and east Africa, and natural gas pipeline systems in four West African countries. The most striking submarine optical fiber communication cable around the African continent is the submarine cable on the west coast of Africa. At present, the submarine optical cable project on the east coast of Africa from Durban, South Africa to Djibouti in the Horn of Africa is also "about to be completed". This will greatly improve the telecommunications links between African countries and outside the African continent and narrow the "digital divide" between Africa and the rest of the world.
South Africa's advantages in infrastructure and talents such as communication, electric power and informatization will make it play a role in African integration. South Africa is the chairman of the "Ministerial Supervisory Committee" in the field of telecommunications in Africa (established in 1998). It uses its industrial advantages to promote the development of telecommunications in the African continent and supports many important development plans put forward by the African Communication Union, including e-health, e-health, e-education and e-agriculture. South Africa's state-owned power company is the main driving force of southern Africa's power supply network and is paying attention to power projects outside the region. The railway network company under the South African Transportation Network Company participates in the operation and management of railway transportation in more than a dozen African countries, and its port authorities provide training and consultation for port management in African countries.
With the opening of the African market to South Africa, South Africa has also greatly expanded its construction industry in other African countries, many of which have brought about the growth of trade and investment between South Africa and related countries.
At the same time, South Africa's advantages in management and service industry have also been brought into play. For example, professional technicians from construction, engineering, consulting companies and research institutions have entered other African countries, and the advantages of South Africa's service industry in hotels, tourism and commerce have also been recognized by other African countries.
South Africa's expansion in Africa also has the function of integrating regional markets. For example, the government of West Cape Province in South Africa plans to establish the West Africa Oil and Gas Service Center, which aims to help South African enterprises develop attractive offshore oil and gas resources on the west coast of Africa (from Angola to Nigeria) and make the Western Cape develop into an oil and gas supply port in Africa. South Africa's advantages are Cape Town's port facilities and South Africa's civil engineering, shipping and mining capabilities. South African companies can provide services, renovate oil field vessels, build oil platforms, provide training and personnel services, and provide consumer goods. In addition, South Africa's perfect economic environment and facilities also make it an ideal base for foreign oil and gas companies in Africa.
Third, South Africa's leading role in African development.
In the past ten years, the economies of South Africa and the whole African continent have achieved certain development in interdependence. In the future, this interdependence and the relationship between * * * and development will remain the main characteristics of the economic relationship between the two. As the "locomotive" of African economic development, South Africa's economic development plays an obvious role in driving the African continent, mainly in the following four aspects:
1. is conducive to changing the deformed economic structure left over from colonial rule.
After independence, African countries inherited the economic dependence perpendicular to the former colonial suzerain, but the economies between countries lacked complementarity and few economic ties. South Africa's trade and investment in African countries have undoubtedly promoted the horizontal economic ties in the region, which is a promoting factor for the economic integration of the African continent.
2. It can effectively promote the infrastructure construction in the sub-region and even the whole African continent.
In the past, roads and railways in Africa were basically built to meet the economic needs of colonial suzerain countries, mainly from the origin of raw materials to ports, and there were few transportation facilities built for economic ties between African countries. The only exception is the Tanzania-Zambia Railway aided by China. In the past, air transport in Africa was mainly connected with Europe, and even the communication between African countries had to bypass Europe and then return to Africa. South Africa has participated in many regional infrastructure projects, which will have a long-term economic impact on the development of Africa.
3. This is of positive significance to the integration of regional financial service market.
South Africa has a mature financial system and professionals. Large commercial banks in South Africa are exploring the markets of other African countries, which promotes the development of African capital markets and related service industries and is conducive to Africa's response to the challenges of globalization.
The development of South African enterprises has played an exemplary role in Africa as a whole.
South Africa's large enterprises have standardized operation and good reputation, and are also supervised by South African laws and domestic NGOs. Their participation in investment projects in Africa is conducive to attracting the attention of foreign capital and international financial institutions, and also helps to enhance the international competitiveness of African enterprises.
Of course, South Africa should make greater achievements in Africa and strengthen its own capacity building. International economic experts generally believe that South Africa's potential should not be underestimated. South Africa's exploration of Africa has just begun, and the climax has not yet arrived. Wolfowitz, the new president of the World Bank, called on South Africa to play a "leading role" in Africa and expressed his willingness to cooperate with South Africa on the African continent.
(The author is a researcher and doctoral supervisor at west asia and africa Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences)
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